Estimating <Emphasis Type="Italic">probable maximum loss</Emphasis> from a Cascadia tsunami

The Cascadia margin is capable of generating large magnitude seismic-tsunami. We use a 1:500 year tsunami hazard flood layer produced during a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment as the input to a pilot study of the vulnerability of residential and commercial buildings in Seaside, OR, USA. We map building exposure, apply the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model to calculate building vulnerability and estimate probable maximum loss (PML) associated with a 1:500 year tsunami flood. Almost US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US$0.5 billion worth of buildings would be inundated, 95% of single story residential and 23% of commercial buildings would be destroyed with PML’s exceeding US116 million. These figures only represent a tiny fraction of the total values of exposed assets and loss that would be associated with a Cascadia tsunami impacting the NW Pacific coast. Not withstanding the various issues associated with our approach, this study represents the first time that PML’s have ever been calculated for a Cascadia type tsunami, and these results have serious implications for tsunami disaster risk management in the region. This method has the potential to be rolled out across the United States and elsewhere for estimating building vulnerability and loss to tsunami.     

Impacts of in-stream aggregate mining on the distributary channels of the alluvial fans of Tafí valley (Northwest Argentina)

In-stream mining is a common aggregate mining practice around the world. However, the impacts of such practice are not always taken into account when the mines are established, and the environmental cost of in-stream aggregate mining is generally not assessed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of aggregate mining conducted in La Puerta River (Tafí valley, Northwest Argentina), a dry-pit in-stream mine, by considering the geomorphological, geoarchaeological, and human effects. Multitemporal analysis of the area using remote sensors (aerial photographs and satellite images 1970–2020), high-resolution drone digital elevation models and orthomosaics (2018–2019), and an intensive survey demonstrated that the mining area grew exponentially between 2002 and 2020 under unregulated mining. As a result, this practice exerts great environmental impact, including channel section alterations and destabilization of riverbanks, soil loss, river profile changes, and the formation of lag deposits of discarded materials, thus increasing environmental hazard under unpredictable flows. Finally, this is a highly touristic area that has suffered substantial landscape degradation and irreversible archaeological damage.     

Wind wave climate change: Impacts on the littoral processes at the Northern Buenos Aires Province Coast, Argentina

Several works reported wind-wave climate changes at Buenos Aires Province continental shelf. The aim of this work is to investigate the impact of these changes in the coastal processes of the region. This study is carried out by means of visual wave parameters gathered at the surf zone of Pinamar and by a conveniently implemented and validated numerical wave model (SWAN). Numerical results corresponding to a grid point located 30 km off Pinamar show a significant increase of wave heights from the S and SSE directions and in the frequency of occurrence of waves coming from the S, SSE and E. It is shown that these slight offshore appreciated trends would not have significant effects on the breaker heights observed at the surf zone at Pinamar. On the contrary, the slight positive trend observed offshore in the frequency of occurrence could be affecting the incidence of waves onshore, producing an increase in the number of cases of normal incidence at the surf zone and, consequently, a significant decrease in the alongshore wave energy flux assessed at Pinamar. This reduction in the alongshore wave energy flux could be responsible for some coastal changes detected in the region as, for instance, the remarkable shortening of Punta Rasa spit located 70 km northward Pinamar.     

Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves

About 50?C60% of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) including nearly 85% of intense hurricanes have their origins as African Easterly Waves (AEWs). However, predicting the likelihood of AEW intensification remains a difficult task. We have developed a Bayesian diagnostic methodology to understand genesis of North Atlantic TCs spawned by AEWs through the examination of the characteristics of the AEW itself together with the large-scale environment, resulting in a probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments associated with intensifying and decaying AEWs. The methodology is based on a new objective and automatic AEW tracking scheme used for the period 1980 to 2001 based on spatio-temporally Fourier-filtered relative vorticity and meridional winds at different levels and outgoing long wave radiation. Using the AEW and Hurricane Best Track Files (HURDAT) data sets, probability density functions of environmental variables that discriminate between AEWs that decay, become TCs or become major hurricanes are determined. Results indicate that the initial amplitude of the AEWs is a major determinant for TC genesis, and that TC genesis risk increases when the wave enters an environment characterized by pre-existing large-scale convergence and moist convection. For the prediction of genesis, the most useful variables are column integrated heating, vertical velocity and specific humidity, and a combined form of divergence and vertical velocity and SST. It is also found that the state of the large-scale environment modulates the annual cycle and interannual variability of the AEW intensification efficiency.