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Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction. 相似文献
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Melissa M. Foley Benjamin S. Halpern Fiorenza Micheli Matthew H. Armsby Margaret R. Caldwell Caitlin M. Crain Erin Prahler Nicole Rohr Deborah Sivas Michael W. Beck Mark H. Carr Larry B. Crowder J. Emmett Duffy Sally D. Hacker Karen L. McLeod Stephen R. Palumbi Charles H. Peterson Helen M. Regan Mary H. Ruckelshaus Paul A. Sandifer Robert S. Steneck 《Marine Policy》2010
The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits. 相似文献
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Bassam A. ABUAMARAH Mokhles K. AZER Paul D. ASIMOW Habes GHREFAT Heba S. MUBARAK 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(2):459-480
The Abu Dabbab albite granite(ADAG), in the central Eastern Desert of Egypt, hosts the most significant rare metal ore deposit in the northern part of the Neoproterozoic Arabian-Nubian Shield. Here, we report detailed field,petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical investigation of the ADAG, an isolated stock-like granitic body with sharp intrusive contacts against metamorphic country rocks, probably emplaced at about 600 Ma. The fine-grained porphyritic upper unit is a preserved remnant of the shallowly-emplaced apex of the magma chamber, whereas the medium-grained lower unit crystallized at deeper levels under subvolcanic conditions. The peraluminous leucocratic ADAG shares common geochemical characteristics with post-collisional intraplate A-type magmas. In addition to the conspicuous enrichment in Na2 O, the ADAG is remarkable for its anomalous concentrations of Ta, Nb, Li, Hf, Ga, Sn, Zn and heavy rare-earth elements. Nb-Ta minerals in the ADAG are mixed with Fe-Mn oxides, forming black patches that increase in abundance toward of the base of the intrusion. Columbite-tantalite, cassiterite and wolframite are the most important ore minerals.Pronounced negative Eu anomalies(Eu/Eu* = 0.10–0.24) reflect extreme magmatic fractionation and perhaps the effects of late fluid-rock interaction. The ADAG was most likely generated by partial melting of the juvenile middle crust of the ANS as the geotherm was elevated by erosional uplift following lithospheric delamination and it was emplaced at the intersection of lineations of structural weakness. Although formation of the ADAG and its primary enrichment in rare metals are essentially due to magmatic processes, late-stage metasomatism caused limited redistribution of rare metals. Fluid-driven subsolidus modification was limited to the apex of the magma chamber and drove development of greisen, amazonite, and quartz veins along fracture systems. 相似文献
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Two types of noise afflict strain and tilt measurement. They may be categorized as “active” noise, which is due to atmospheric pressure variations, temperature variations, water-table variations and so forth; and “passive” or signal-generated noise which is a consequence of the interaction of the strain field of interest with inhomogeneities of material properties local to the measurement site.The reason why both types of noise are normally reduced by the use of long base line instruments is explained and a simple, practical long base line tiltmeter is described. 相似文献
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High energy, lake‐shoreline carbonate sequences are rarely documented in the geological record. However, one example occurs in the Upper Triassic Mercia Mudstone Group (MMG) of southern Britain. The MMG is one of a number of thick, non‐fossiliferous mudstone deposits associated with North Atlantic Mesozoic rift basins. The origin of the MMG mudstones is the subject of current debate, with marine, playa‐lacustrine and alluvial–aeolian models having been proposed. Shoreline features have been documented from the northern margin of the basin, but the rarity of such features elsewhere in the MMG has led many workers to doubt a lacustrine origin for the mudstones. Wave‐dominated, lake‐shoreline deposits have been recognized in several sections from the southern basin margin in the Clevedon area of the Bristol Channel in south‐west England. These deposits provide evidence for the development of a sizeable perennial to semi‐perennial hypersaline lake in which the MMG mudstones accumulated. Shoreline sediments overlie alluvial stream and sheet‐flood deposits, and pass from transgressive gravel–conglomerate beach units with bioclasts, influenced by shore‐normal waves (deposited under semi‐humid conditions), to lower gradient, highstand oolitic sands affected by more varied wave approach (deposited under progressively more arid conditions), which culminated in lowstand, oolitic strand‐plain deposits overlain by a playa‐mudflat unit. Shoreline deposits record a simple shallowing‐upward transgressive–highstand–lowstand sequence. However, a change from a reflective (transgressive) to dissipative (highstand) shoreline is believed to represent a climatically induced change in prevailing wind direction. Shoreline features recognized in the MMG are similar to those of recent playa‐lacustrine basins of the western United States. Ooids display a variety of size, fracture and dissolution features in addition to beachrock fabrics, suggesting that they were originally composed of radial aragonite, similar to modern ooids from the Great Salt Lake, Utah. 相似文献
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D. K. Paul 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1971,34(1):22-28
The isotopic composition of strontium, and rubidium and strontium concentrations in eight ultramafic inclusions and two host
basalts from Dreiser Weiher, Eifel, Germany are presented. Comparison of the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of the inclusions with the basaltic hosts indicates that the lherzolite inclusions are exotic in nature but the
wehrlite-clino-pyroxenites are probably cognate with the host rocks. An apparent age of 550 m.y. (±a large uncertainty) shown
by the lherzolites is believed to reflect a mantle event. 相似文献