Multivariate models for predicting glacier termini

Concerns over the rapid retreat rates of mountain glaciers have been rising as global temperatures have continued to increase. The extent of variation in the retreat of mountain glaciers can provide information about changes to different climatic conditions. Assessing the retreat rates of glaciers is crucial to assess the continuing existence of mountain glaciers and the ramifications of those retreats on water security for human societies. Therefore, mathematical and statistical models for the quantification of glacier dynamics in response to climate change are in high demand. In this research, we propose a multivariate regression model that estimates glacier change and predicts the location of glacier terminus over time, based on observed climate factors. The proposed method is applied to temporal sequences of ground observations for a number of glaciers around the globe. This model can potentially be used for monitoring glacier systems using climatic factors.     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Holocene tectono-geomorphic evolution of Haryana plains,Western Ganga plain,India

Haryana plain is the drainage divide between the Ganga plain in the east and the Indus plain in the west. Being a part of the Himalayan foreland, its geomorphology, sedimentation processes, and tectonism are broadly controlled by the Himalayan tectonics. Soil and geomorphological mapping in Haryana plain bring out geomorphic features such as paleochannels, various active drainage patterns, and landforms such as old fluvial plains, floodplains, piedmonts, pediments, terminal fans, and eolian plains. Based on the degree of soil development, and Optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, the soil-geomorphic units were grouped into six members (QIMS-I to VI) (Quaternary Indus Morphostratigraphic Sequence) of a morphostratigraphic sequence: QIMS-VI 9.86–5.38 Ka, QIMS-V 5.38–4.45 Ka, QIMS-IV 4.45–3.60 Ka, QIMS-III 3.60–2.91 Ka, QIMS-II <?2.91–1.52 Ka, and QIMS-I <?1.52 Ka. OSL chronology of different geomorphic features suggests six episodes of tectono-geomorphic evolution in the region since 10 Ka. Neotectonic features such as nine faults, two lineaments, and five fault-bounded tectonic blocks have been identified. Independent tilting and sagging of the blocks in response to neotectonics have resulted in modification of landforms, depositional processes, and hydro-geomorphology of the region. Major rivers like the Yamuna, the Ghaggar, and the Sutlej show different episodes of shifting of their courses. Lineament controlled few extinct channels have been recorded between 20 and 25 m depth below the surface in the ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles. These buried channels are aligned along the paleo-course of the Lost Saraswati River interpreted from the existing literature and hence are considered as the course of the lost river. Seven terminal fans have been formed on the downthrown blocks of the associated faults. The Markanda Terminal Fan, the first of such features described, is indeed a splay terminal fan and was formed by a splay distributary system of the Markanda River. Association of three terminal fans of different ages with the Karnal fault indicates the segment-wise development of the fault from west to east. Also, comparison with other such studies in the Ganga plain to further east suggests that the terminal fans formed by streams with distributary drainage pattern occur only in semiarid regions as in the present area and thus are indicators of semiarid climate/paleoclimate. Though the whole region is tectonically active, the region between the Rohtak fault and Hisar fault is most active at present signified by the concentration of earthquake epicenters.     

Application of instantaneous amplitude gradient for ground penetrating radar signal analyses

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is an effective geophysical method for environmental and engineering exploration. However, significant background interference occurs around most work sites, which increases the difficulty of analyzing and interpreting GPR profiles. For time-distance profile analyses, more accurate results can be obtained using the instantaneous parameters of the analytic signals. In this study, these instantaneous parameters are extracted and compared using 1D model waveform and 2D model strong interference profiles. The results show that the instantaneous amplitude gradient effectively reflects the model information, even under strong interference. The instantaneous amplitude gradient is applied to GPR survey data from a study site, and the results indicate that the technique reflects the underground structure information of the survey area. Drilling verification further confirms that the instantaneous amplitude gradient accurately reflects the underground structure information.     

Efficacy of laser cleaning in the removal of biological patina on the volcanic scoria of the rock-hewn churches of Lalibela,Ethiopia

The Lalibela rock-hewn churches are one of the most important religious pilgrimage sites in Ethiopia. These churches are carved from the scoriaceous basalt rock substrate, which has been exposed to attack by biological agents with significant loss of surface material. Particularly, the widespread growth of lichens and other microorganisms on the carved surfaces of the churches has proven to represent a substantial threat for the preservation of the site. In this study, laboratory tests have been conducted to assess the feasibility of using laser technology as an efficient cleaning method of biological patina from polymineralic stone substrates. Multi-analytical techniques were applied for the characterization of the stone samples collected from two of the Lalibela churches: Bete Giyorgis and Bete Amanuel. Stone samples artificially inoculated with bacteria, yeast, fungi isolates, and lichen-encrusted samples were laser cleaned using UV and IR laser wavelengths. The high content of Fe and Ti oxides and the high porosity have made the stone surfaces easily susceptible to low-energy laser treatment. Results indicate that laser cleaning can be applied to polymineralic lithotypes and UV irradiation can successfully remove lichen colonies. Further studies need to be conducted to optimize the laser procedure in polymineralic, high porosity stones.     

Synthesis and characterisation of a multifunctional oil-based drilling fluid additive

An oil-based drilling fluid additive H-DEA (or humic acid-cocamide diethanolamine) was synthesised using humic acid and cocamide diethanolamine as raw materials. The rheological behaviors of H-DEA showed that the synthesised product has the good properties in both decreasing the filtrate loss and improving rheology property of oil-based drilling fluids compared with other commercially available additives. Under the optimal additive amount of 3%, both API filtrate loss and yield point changed remarkably from 5.40 to 0.41 mL and 9.0 to 25.6 Pa, respectively. Furthermore, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) showed that H-DEA has good thermal stability in a wide temperature range up to 170 °C. Infrared spectroscopy (IR) and rheological analysis revealed that the possible mechanism of the multifunctional effects may be attributed to the existing of high density of strong polar groups, hydrogen bonds, electrostatic forces, and intermolecular association on H-DEA molecular structure. The results of the study showed that the synthesised H-DEA can be potentially used as a multifunctional oil-based drilling fluid additive in oil-drilling excavation.