Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.     

Mixed terrigenous—Carbonate sedimentation in the Hispaniola—Caicos turbidite basin

Sedimentation in the 9500 km², 4100 m deep Hispaniòla—Caicos Basin is dominated by turbidity currents. Carbonate turbidites originate from the Bahama Islands, Great Inagua and Caicos at the north end of the basin. Mixed carbonate—non-carbonate flows come from Hispaniola and perhaps Cuba. Most flows originate on insular slopes rather than in shallow water. The relatively low CaCO₃ content of hemipelagic sequences throughout the entire basin reveals that the influence of non-carbonate Hispaniola—Cuba sources is widespread.The basin was sampled with closely spaced piston cores. Sand-layer isopach and frequency maps reveal four or five major basin entry points for turbidity currents. Flow size is proportional to the size of source areas. Average volumes of flows originating from Hispaniola—Cuba, the largest source, are 10⁹ m³. This compares to an average flow volume of 10⁶ m³ for flows derived from the smallest source area, the Southeastern Caicos Bank. Measures of turbidity-current activity, such as thickness and frequency, change in a regular fashion away from each entry point. Average lutite thickness (combining hemipelagic and turbiditic lutite) are greatest near the basin entry points. On the abyssal plain occupying the south half of the basin, Bouma turbidite sedimentary structure sequences tend to be complete. However, on the Caicos Fan, the sedimentary structure sequences in turbidites are characterized by missing or repeated units. Six radiocarbon dates of two widespread presumed pelagic units in the basin yielded younger dates in stratigraphically older positions. The reversed dates are assumed to reflect storm erosion of older sediment on adjacent insular shelves.Consideration of a north—south reflection seismic profile over the basin indicates that the present sediment regimen has pertained through much of the Neogene. The coherence, convergence and termination of reflections in the seismic section are consistent with and tend to confirm conclusions based on the core study regarding the greater extent and volume of sediment deposits derived from the Hispaniola source area.     

Turbulent molecular clouds

Stars form within molecular clouds but our understanding of this fundamental process remains hampered by the complexity of the physics that drives their evolution. We review our observational and theoretical knowledge of molecular clouds trying to confront the two approaches wherever possible. After a broad presentation of the cold interstellar medium and molecular clouds, we emphasize the dynamical processes with special focus to turbulence and its impact on cloud evolution. We then review our knowledge of the velocity, density and magnetic fields. We end by openings towards new chemistry models and the links between molecular cloud structure and star-formation rates.     

Oort Cloud Comet Perihelion Asymmetries: Galactic Tide, Shower or Observational Bias?

We investigate the distribution of Oort cloud comet perihelia. The data considered includes comets having orbital elements of the two highest quality classes with original energies designated as new or young. Perihelion directions are determined in galactic, ecliptic and geocentric equatorial coordinates. Asymmetries are detected in the scatter and are studied statistically for evidence of adiabatic galactic tidal dynamics, an impulse-induced shower and observational bias. The only bias detected is the well-known deficiency of observations with perihelion distances q > 2.5 AU. There is no significant evidence of a seasonal dependence. Nor is there a substantive hemispherical bias in either ecliptic or equatorial coordinates. There is evidence for a weak stellar shower previously detected by Biermann which accounts for ≈ 10% of the total observations. Both the q bias and the Biermann star track serve to weaken the evidence for a galactic tidal imprint. Nevertheless, statistically significant asymmetries in galactic latitude and longitude of perihelia remain. A latitude asymmetry is produced by a dominant tidal component perpendicular to the galactic disk. The longitude signal implies that ≈ 20% of new comets need an additional dynamical mechanism. Known disk non-uniformities and an hypothetical bound perturber are discussed as potential explanations. We conclude that the detected dynamical signature of the galactic tide is real and is not an artifact of observational bias, impulsive showers or poor data. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.     

Multi-stage reaction history in different eclogite types from the Pakistan Himalaya and implications for exhumation processes

Metabasites were sampled from rock series of the subducted margin of the Indian Plate, the so-called Higher Himalayan Crystalline, in the Upper Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. These vary from corona dolerites, cropping out around Saif-ul-Muluk in the south, to coesite–eclogite close to the suture zone against rocks of the Kohistan arc in the north. Bulk rock major- and trace- element chemistry reveals essentially a single protolith as the source for five different eclogite types, which differ in fabric, modal mineralogy as well as in mineral chemistry. The study of newly-collected samples reveals coesite (confirmed by in situ Raman spectroscopy) in both garnet and omphacite. All eclogites show growth of amphiboles during exhumation. Within some coesite-bearing eclogites the presence of glaucophane cores to barroisite is noted whereas in most samples porphyroblastic sodic–calcic amphiboles are rimmed by more aluminous calcic amphibole (pargasite, tschermakite, and edenite). Eclogite facies rutile is replaced by ilmenite which itself is commonly surrounded by titanite. In addition, some eclogite bodies show leucocratic segregations containing phengite, quartz, zoisite and/or kyanite. The important implication is that the complex exhumation path shows stages of initial cooling during decompression (formation of glaucophane) followed by reheating: a very similar situation to that reported for the coesite-bearing eclogite series of the Tso Morari massif, India, 450 km to the south-east.     

Models of the formation of the solar nebula

Models of the collapse of a protostellar cloud and the formation of the solar nebula reveal that the size of the nebula produced will be the larger of $\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>CF</mtext>}}\text{≡ J}{}^2\text{/k}{}^2\text{GM}{}^3\text{and}\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>V</mtext>}}\text{≡ (GMv/2c}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>c</mtext>}}{}^3\text{)}\text{1}\text{2}$ (where J, M, and c_s are the total angular momentum, total mass, and sound speed of the protosetellar material; G is the gravitational constant; k is a number of order unity; and v is the effective viscosity in the nebula). From this result it can be deduced that low-mass nebulas are produced if P ≡ (R_V/R_CF)² ? 1; “massive” nebulas result if P ? 1. Gravitational instabilities are expected to be important for the evolution of P ? 1 nebulas. The value of J distinguishes most current models of the solar nebula, since P ∝ J^?4. Analytic expressions for the surface density, nebular mass flux, and photospheric temperature distributions during the formation stage are presented for some simple models that illustrate the general properties of growing protostellar disks. It does not yet seem possible to rule out either P ? 1 or P < 1 for the solar nebula, but observed or possible heterogeneities in composition and angular-momentum orientation favor P < 1 models.     

A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.