Finite element implementation of a homogenized constitutive law for stone column-reinforced foundation soils,with application to the design of structures

Making use of the homogenization method for periodic media, developed in the context of elastoplasticity, a simplified constitutive law is proposed for a stone column-reinforced soil, regarded as a homogeneous but anisotropic medium. The closed-form expressions derived for such a constitutive law allow for its implementation into a f.e.m-based numerical procedure. The computational code so obtained is then applied to simulating the response of a foundation soil reinforced by a group of floating columns, expressed in terms of load–settlement curves drawn up to the ultimate bearing capacity.     

Development of a Darcy-Brinkman model to simulate water flow and tracer transport in a heterogeneous karstic aquifer (Val d’Orléans, France)

Darcy’s law is the equation of reference widely used to model aquifer flows. However, its use to model karstic aquifers functioning with large pores is problematic. The physics occurring within the karstic conduits requires the use of a more representative macroscopic equation. A hydrodynamic model is presented which is adapted to the karstic aquifer of the Val d’Orléans (France) using two flow equations: (1) Darcy’s law, used to describe water flow within the massive limestone, and (2) the Brinkman equation, used to model water flow within the conduits. The flow equations coupled with the transport equation allow the prediction of the karst transfer properties. The model was tested by using six dye tracer tests and compared to a model that uses Darcy’s law to describe the flow in karstic conduits. The simulations show that the conduit permeability ranges from 5?×?10^?6 to 5.5?×?10^?5?m² and the limestone permeability ranges from 8?×?10^?11 to 6?×?10^?10?m². The dispersivity coefficient ranges from 23 to 53 m in the conduits and from 1 to 5 m in the limestone. The results of the simulations carried out using Darcy’s law in the conduits show that the dispersion towards the fractures is underestimated.     

A field study (Massachusetts, USA) of the factors controlling the depth of groundwater flow systems in crystalline fractured-rock terrain

Groundwater movement and availability in crystalline and metamorphosed rocks is dominated by the secondary porosity generated through fracturing. The distributions of fractures and fracture zones determine permeable pathways and the productivity of these rocks. Controls on how these distributions vary with depth in the shallow subsurface (<300 m) and their resulting influence on groundwater flow is not well understood. The results of a subsurface study in the Nashoba and Avalon terranes of eastern Massachusetts (USA), which is a region experiencing expanded use of the fractured bedrock as a potable-supply aquifer, are presented. The study logged the distribution of fractures in 17 boreholes, identified flowing fractures, and hydraulically characterized the rock mass intersecting the boreholes. Of all fractures encountered, 2.5% are hydraulically active. Boreholes show decreasing fracture frequency up to 300 m depth, with hydraulically active fractures showing a similar trend; this restricts topographically driven flow. Borehole temperature profiles corroborate this, with minimal hydrologically altered flow observed in the profiles below 100 m. Results from this study suggest that active flow systems in these geologic settings are shallow and that fracture permeability outside of the influence of large-scale structures will follow a decreasing trend with depth.     

The response of the ‘green revolution’ to climatic variability

The purpose of this research is to assess the climatic sensitivity of high yielding variety (‘HYV’) ‘green revolution’ wheat. Improved multiple regression models were constructed for yields in India and Sonora, Mexico — the two most intensively planted regions in the world. After isolating the most important climatic predictors (which, not surprisingly, are total rainfall over the irrigation basins), the models were reduced to the pre-HYV period, and then re-run with successively more years of HYV input. This test indicated that increased adoption of the HYV package is associated with a significant increase in yield sensitivity to the most important climatic determinants of yield. To serve as a control, the U.S. Winter Wheat region was also modelled with a similar method. Overall, there is no significant increase in yield sensitivity to climate during the same period that HYV's were adopted in Mexico and India. Assuming that there is no change in overall climatic variability, this study indicates that production will nonetheless become more variable, particularly as HYV culture is expanded. Ironically, countries with rapidly expanding populations, that rely increasingly on HYV's, will experience the most significant fluctuations.     

Economic and climatic factors in ‘acreage abandonment’ over marginal cropland

Crop yield projections made at planting time or during the growing season often ignore the fact that an unknown percentage of planted acreage is not harvested. As a solution, we present a model for 'acreage abandonment, based upon both economic and weather variables. Weather is shown to be a much more important determinant of the decision not to harvest than is the expected price. The explained variance in abandonment of spring wheat acreage by future delivery price is approximately 16%, but rises to over 60% when weather variables are added. In a similarly designed model for winter wheat in the southern plains, the price contribution is less than 5%.The spring wheat model was tested on two extensive sets of withheld data: three-year successive deletions through the entire (1932–1975) data set, and a ten year block at the beginning of the modelling period that included substantial weather and price perturbations induced by the dust bowl, depression, and attendant market gyrations. Predictive capability was retained in both tests.Current weather appears to weigh more heavily in the abandonment decision than does future price.     

Secular changes in the short-term preventive,positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909

Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the shortterm preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development.The causes of a high mortality are various; but the greater number of known causes may be referred to five heads: 1) excessive cold or heat; 2) privation of food; 3) effluvial poisons generated in marshes, foul prisons, camps, cities; and epidemic diseases, such as typhus, plague, small pox, and other zymotic diseases; 4) mechanical and chemical injuries; 5) spontaneous disorders to which the structure of the human organization renders it liable. - Farr (1846, p. 164)....a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventive check, and the actual distresses of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check to the natural increase of population. - Malthus (1798, Chapter 4).The research on which this paper is based has been funded by grants R01-HD18107 and T32-HD07275 from the U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. This paper is associated with the author's Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe,Population Studies 42, 2, 1988, 275-303. I thank Ronald Lee, Ulla Larsen, and Jan de Vries for helpful comments and suggestions.     

A modified parameterization of flux-profile relationships in the surface layer using different roughness length values for heat and momentum

The surface-layer flux-profile formulae of Louis (1979), used in many atmospheric models, are modified in a simple way to allow for different values of the roughness lengths for heat and momentum. The modified set of formulae simplifies the calculation of surface-layer fluxes over most natural land surfaces, where the roughness length for momentum can be almost an order of magnitude greater than that for heat.     

Particulate content of savanna fire emissions

As part of the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991, various aerosol samples were collected at ground level near prescribed fires or under local background conditions, to characterize the emissions of particulate matter from the burning of savanna vegetation. This paper deals with total aerosol (TPM) and carbon measurements. Detailed trace element and polycyclic hydrocarbon data are discussed in other papers presented in this issue.Near the fire plumes, the aerosols from biomass burning are primarily of a carbonaceous nature (C%70% of the aerosol mass) and consist predominantly of submicron particles (more than 90% in mass.) They are characterized by their organic nature (black to total carbon ratio Cb/Ct in the range 3–20%) and their high potassium content (K/Cb0.6). These aerosols undergo aging during their first minutes in the atmosphere causing slight alterations in their size distribution and chemical composition. However, they remain enriched in potassium (K/Cb=0.21) and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, such that both of these species may be used as tracers of savanna burning aerosols. We show that during this period of the year, the background atmosphere experiences severe pollution from both terrigenous sources and regional biomass burning (44% of the aerosol). Daynight variations of the background carbon concentrations suggest that fire ignition and spreading occur primarily during the day. Simultaneous TPM and CO₂ real-time measurements point to a temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the burning so that the ratio of the above background concentrations (TPM/CO₂) varies from 2 to 400 g/kg C. Smoldering processes are intense sources of particles but particulate emissions may also be important during the rapidly spreading heading fires in connection with the generation of heavy brown smoke. We propose emission factor values (EF) for aerosols from the savanna biomass burning aerosols: EF (TPM)=11.4±4.6 and 69±25 g/kg C_{dry plant} and EF(Ct)=7.4±3.4 and 56±16 g C/kg C_{dry plant} for flaming and smoldering processes respectively. In these estimates, the range of uncertainty is mostly due to the intra-fire variability. These values are significantly lower than those reported in the literature for the combustion of other types of vegetation. But due to the large amounts of vegetation biomass being burnt in African savannas, the annual flux of particulate carbon into the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 8 Tg C, which rivals particulate carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities in temperate regions.     

Impact of 1/8° to 1/64° resolution on Gulf Stream model–data comparisons in basin-scale subtropical Atlantic Ocean models

We investigate the impact of 1/8°, 1/16°, 1/32°, and 1/64° ocean model resolution on model–data comparisons for the Gulf Stream system mainly between the Florida Straits and the Grand Banks. This includes mean flow and variability, the Gulf Stream pathway, the associated nonlinear recirculation gyres, the large-scale C-shape of the subtropical gyre and the abyssal circulation. A nonlinear isopycnal, free surface model covering the Atlantic from 9°N to 47°N or 51°N, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and a similar 1/16° global model are used. The models are forced by winds and by a global thermohaline component via ports in the model boundaries. When calculated using realistic wind forcing and Atlantic model boundaries, linear simulations with Munk western boundary layers and a Sverdrup interior show two unrealistic mean Gulf Stream pathways between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks, one proceeding due east from Cape Hatteras and a second one continuing northward along the western boundary until forced eastward by the regional northern boundary. The northern pathway is augmented when a linear version of the upper ocean global thermohaline contribution to the Gulf Stream is added as a Munk western boundary layer. A major change is required to obtain a realistic pathway in nonlinear models. Resolution of 1/8° is eddy-resolving but mainly gives a wiggly version of the linear model Gulf Stream pathway and weak abyssal flows except for the deep western boundary current (DWBC) forced by ports in the model boundaries. All of the higher resolution simulations show major improvement over the linear and 1/8° nonlinear simulations. Additional major improvement is seen with the increase from 1/16° to 1/32° resolution and modest improvement with a further increase to 1/64°. The improvements include (1) realistic separation of the Gulf Stream from the coast at Cape Hatteras and a realistic Gulf Stream pathway between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks based on comparisons with Gulf Stream pathways from satellite IR and from GEOSAT and TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry (but 1/32° resolution was required for robust results), (2) realistic eastern and western nonlinear recirculation gyres (which contribute to the large-scale C-shape of the subtropical gyre) based on comparisons with mean surface dynamic height from the generalized digital environmental model (GDEM) oceanic climatology and from the pattern and amplitude of sea surface height (SSH) variability surrounding the eastern gyre as seen in TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, (3) realistic upper ocean and DWBC transports based on several types of measurements, (4) patterns and amplitude of SSH variability which are generally realistic compared to TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, but which vary from simulation to simulation for specific features and which are most realistic overall in the 1/64° simulation, (5) a basin wide explosion in the number and strength of mesoscale eddies (with warm core rings (WCRs) north of the Gulf Stream, the regional eddy features best observed by satellite IR), (6) realistic statistics for WCRs north of the Gulf Stream based on comparison to IR analyses (low at 1/16° resolution and most realistic at 1/64° resolution for mean population and rings generated/year; realistic ring diameters at all resolutions), and (7) realistic patterns and amplitude of abyssal eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in comparison to historical measurements from current meters.