Automatic revision of rules used to guide the generalisation process in systems based on a trial and error strategy

Automating the generalisation process, a major issue for national mapping agencies, is extremely complex. Several works have proposed to deal with this complexity using a trial and error strategy. The performance of systems based on such a strategy is directly dependent on the quality of the control knowledge (i.e. heuristics) used to guide the trials. Unfortunately, most of the time, the definition and updation of knowledge is a fastidious task. In this context, automatic knowledge revision can not only improve the performance of the generalisation, but also allow it to automatically adapt to various usages and evolve when new elements are introduced. In this article, an offline knowledge revision approach is proposed, based on a logging of the system and on the analysis of outcoming logs. This approach is dedicated to the revision of control knowledge expressed by production rules. We have implemented and tested this approach for the automated generalisation of groups of buildings within a generalisation model called AGENT, from initial data that reference a scale of approximately 1:15,000 compared with the target map's scale of 1:50,000. The results show that our approach improves the quality of the control knowledge and thus the performance of the system. Moreover, the approach proposed is generic and can be applied to other systems based on a trial and error strategy, dedicated to generalisation or not.     

Tidal evolution of close binary asteroid systems

We provide a generalized discussion of tidal evolution to arbitrary order in the expansion of the gravitational potential between two spherical bodies of any mass ratio. To accurately reproduce the tidal evolution of a system at separations less than 5 times the radius of the larger primary component, the tidal potential due to the presence of a smaller secondary component is expanded in terms of Legendre polynomials to arbitrary order rather than truncated at leading order as is typically done in studies of well-separated system like the Earth and Moon. The equations of tidal evolution including tidal torques, the changes in spin rates of the components, and the change in semimajor axis (orbital separation) are then derived for binary asteroid systems with circular and equatorial mutual orbits. Accounting for higher-order terms in the tidal potential serves to speed up the tidal evolution of the system leading to underestimates in the time rates of change of the spin rates, semimajor axis, and mean motion in the mutual orbit if such corrections are ignored. Special attention is given to the effect of close orbits on the calculation of material properties of the components, in terms of the rigidity and tidal dissipation function, based on the tidal evolution of the system. It is found that accurate determinations of the physical parameters of the system, e.g., densities, sizes, and current separation, are typically more important than accounting for higher-order terms in the potential when calculating material properties. In the scope of the long-term tidal evolution of the semimajor axis and the component spin rates, correcting for close orbits is a small effect, but for an instantaneous rate of change in spin rate, semimajor axis, or mean motion, the close-orbit correction can be on the order of tens of percent. This work has possible implications for the determination of the Roche limit and for spin-state alteration during close flybys.     

Sublimation of the Martian CO2 Seasonal South Polar Cap

The polar condensation/sublimation of CO₂, that involve about one fourth of the atmosphere mass, is the major Martian climatic cycle. Early observations in visible and thermal infrared have shown that the sublimation of the Seasonal South Polar Cap (SSPC) is not symmetric around the geographic South Pole.Here we use observations by OMEGA/Mars Express in the near-infrared to detect unambiguously the presence of CO₂ at the surface, and to estimate albedo. Second, we estimate the sublimation of CO₂ released in the atmosphere and show that there is a two-step process. From Ls=180° to 220°, the sublimation is nearly symmetric with a slight advantage for the cryptic region. After Ls=220° the anti-cryptic region sublimation is stronger. Those two phases are not balanced such that there is 22% ± 9 more mass the anti-cryptic region, arguing for more snow precipitation. We compare those results with the MOLA height measurements. Finally we discuss implications for the Martian atmosphere about general circulation and gas tracers, e.g. Ar.     

Implications of climate change in the twenty‐first century for simulated magnitude and frequency of bed‐material transport in tributaries of the Saint‐Lawrence River

More frequent extreme flood events are likely to occur in many areas in the twenty‐first century due to climate change. The impacts of these changes on sediment transport are examined at the event scale using a 1D morphodynamic model (SEDROUT4‐M) for three tributaries of the Saint‐Lawrence River (Québec, Canada) using daily discharge series generated with a hydrological model (HSAMI) from three global climate models (GCMs). For all tributaries, larger flood events occur in all future scenarios, leading to increases in bed‐material transport rates, number of transport events and number of days in the year where sediment transport occurs. The effective and half‐load discharges increase under all GCM simulations. Differences in flood timing within the tributaries, with a shift of peak annual discharge from the spring towards the winter, compared to the hydrograph of the Saint‐Lawrence River, generate higher sediment transport rates because of increased water surface slope and stream power. Previous research had shown that channel erosion is expected under all GCMs' discharge scenarios. This study shows that, despite lower bed elevations, flood risk is likely to increase as a result of higher flood magnitude, even with falling base level in the Saint‐Lawrence River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Amazonian floodplain water balance based on modelling and analyses of hydrologic and electrical conductivity data

In the Amazon basin, floodplains form a complex mosaic of freshwater systems with differing morphologies, resulting in varied inundation patterns and heterogeneous chemical and ecological characteristics. In this study, we focused on the Janauacá floodplain, a medium‐sized system (786 km², including the local watershed) located along the Solimões River. Based on in situ and satellite observations acquired from November 2006 to November 2011, we computed water fluxes between the mainstream and the floodplain and examined the temporal dynamics of floodplain storage from river flooding, rainfall, runoff, and exchanges with groundwater through bank seepage for the 5 years from 2006 to 2011. The mainstream was the main input of water to the flooded area, accounting on average for 93% of total water inputs by the end of the water year. Direct precipitation and runoff from uplands contributed less than or equal to 5% and 10%, respectively. The seepage contribution was less than 1%. Model uncertainties, evaluated using Monte Carlo analysis of the input data and model parameters, showed that all water fluxes were relatively well constrained except for outflow through seepage, which had a standard deviation across simulations greater than 60%. The water balance computation was verified using electrical conductivity as an assumed non‐reactive tracer. Except during periods of very low water, the simulated and measured conductivities agreed well. Moreover, conductivity data analysis confirmed that the Janauacá system can be considered homogeneous in terms of electrical conductivity for filling percentages equal to or greater than 40% (i.e., when the water level is above 19.5 m, generally from April to August) but presented large heterogeneities during the rest of the hydrological cycle.     

Early detection of large eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island): Contribution of a distant tiltmeter station

We report a compilation of data recorded at a distant tiltmeter station (RER) during recent episodes of dyke emplacement and eruption (2003–2007) at Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island). This sensitive station provides useful information for evaluating the extent of deformation. Distinct responses of this station were recorded based on the eruption type. Dykes feeding summit eruptions did not significantly influence the RER tiltmeter signals, whereas dykes feeding large distal eruptions (with vents located more than 4 km from the summit) generated up to 1.4 μrad of tilt, an amplitude 2 to 4 times greater than for proximal eruptions (0.3–0.7 μrad) on the flanks of the summit cone. The distinct tilt amplitude is directly linked to the location, depth, and volume of the dyke. Comparison with summit tiltmeters reveals that up to one-third to half of the RER tilt signal associated to dyke propagation is recorded when the dyke is still below the summit crater. Thus, before large distal eruptions, more than 0.5 μrad of tilt is recorded in less than 20 min when the dyke is below the summit crater (i.e. a few minutes/hours before the beginning of the eruption). We can thus propose for the RER station a threshold value of 0.5 μrad which, when reached as a dyke rises beneath the summit crater, suggests a high likelihood of a large distal eruption. The distant RER tiltmeter station thus appears to be a powerful tool for forecasting the type of eruption that is likely to occur, and can contribute to the early detection of large distal eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise, which are the most dangerous to inhabitants. For volcano monitoring, installation of high precision distant tiltmeters along the lower slopes of a volcano may provide warnings of large eruptions with enough lead time to allow for short-term hazards mitigation efforts.     

A reassessment of late glacial – Holocene diatom oxygen isotope record from Lake Baikal using a geochemical mass‐balance approach

We present a new palaeoenvironmental record of hydrological variability in Lake Baikal, based on re‐modelled δ¹⁸O_diatom values of diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_modelled), where the residual contaminants are identified and compensated for using electron optical imaging and whole‐sample geochemistry. δ¹⁸O_modelled interpretations are based on the balance between rivers with high δ¹⁸O values and rivers with low δ¹⁸O values. Isotopic variability is related to latitudinal differences in precipitation which feed these rivers. The δ¹⁸O_modelled record suggests that rather moist conditions prevailed in the Lake Baikal region during the latter stages of the Younger Dryas. Throughout the Holocene, episodes of low δ¹⁸O_modelled values are, in general, in good agreement with increases in percentage haematite‐stained grains in North Atlantic sediments (indicative of ice‐rafted debris events). Rivers with southerly catchments dominate fluvial input especially between c. 3.3 and 2 cal ka BP, concurrent with high precipitation in the Lake Baikal region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.