Evaluation of the WAMME model surface fluxes using results from the AMMA land-surface model intercomparison project

The West African monsoon (WAM) circulation and intensity have been shown to be influenced by the land surface in numerous numerical studies using regional scale and global scale atmospheric climate models (RCMs and GCMs, respectively) over the last several decades. The atmosphere–land surface interactions are modulated by the magnitude of the north–south gradient of the low level moist static energy, which is highly correlated with the steep latitudinal gradients of the vegetation characteristics and coverage, land use, and soil properties over this zone. The African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis (AMMA) has organised comprehensive activities in data collection and modelling to further investigate the significance land–atmosphere feedbacks. Surface energy fluxes simulated by an ensemble of land surface models from AMMA Land-surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) have been used as a proxy for the best estimate of the “real world” values in order to evaluate GCM and RCM simulations under the auspices of the West African Monsoon Modelling Experiment (WAMME) project, since such large-scale observations do not exist. The ALMIP models have been forced in off-line mode using forcing based on a mixture of satellite, observational, and numerical weather prediction data. The ALMIP models were found to agree well over the region where land–atmosphere coupling is deemed to be most important (notably the Sahel), with a high signal to noise ratio (generally from 0.7 to 0.9) in the ensemble and a inter-model coefficient of variation between 5 and 15%. Most of the WAMME models simulated spatially averaged net radiation values over West Africa which were consistent with the ALMIP estimates, however, the partitioning of this energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes was significantly different: WAMME models tended to simulate larger (by nearly a factor of two) monthly latent heat fluxes than ALMIP. This results due to a positive precipitation bias in the WAMME models and a northward displacement of the monsoon in most of the GCMs and RCMs. Another key feature not found in the WAMME models is peak seasonal latent heat fluxes during the monsoon retreat (approximately a month after the peak precipitation rates) from soil water stores. This is likely related to the WAMME northward bias of the latent heat flux gradient during the WAM onset.     

The Decision‐Making/Accountability Spatial Incongruence Problem for Research Linking Environmental Science and Policy

Increasingly, scholars engage policy makers around fundamental, complex questions on environmental change in interdisciplinary settings. Researchers attempting to develop robust contributions to knowledge that can support policymaker understandings in this context face significant inferential challenges in dealing with the spatial dimension of their phenomenon of interest. In this paper, we extend an understanding of well‐defined methodological challenges familiar to applied spatial scientists by explicitly articulating the Decision‐Making/Accountability, Spatial Incongruence Problem, or DASIP. Three case studies illustrate how spatial incongruences matter to researchers who work on complex, interdisciplinary problems, while seeking to understand decision‐making or policy‐related phenomenon: urban heat‐island mitigation research in Arizona, water transfer conflicts in Kansas, and hydraulic‐fracturing debates in Texas. With such examples, we aim to evoke a deeper understanding of this problem in applied research and also inspire thinking about how scholars might innovate methods for creating knowledge about environmental change that supports spatially accountable decision making.     

Assessing the effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Limay River basin

The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season. The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate.     

Differentiation of clay resources on a limestone plain: The analysis of clay utilization during the Maya Formative at K'axob Belize

Differentiating clay resources in a uniform limestone plain, such as occurs in northern Belize, offers special challenges for the archaeologist. Combining data from soil mapping with petrographic and neutron activation analysis provides a mechanism for distinguishing possible resource areas. This study employed each of these differing avenues of analysis to determine possible clay resource areas used during the Maya Formative in northern Belize Central America. The results indicate that clay usage changed significantly from the Middle Formative period to the end of Late Formative period. These changes suggest a move to increased localized production and resource exploitation by the end of the period. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Stone artifact scatters in western NSW,Australia: Geomorphic controls on artifact size and distribution

Surface scatters of Aboriginal stone artifacts have been exposed in many parts of inland Australia by accelerated erosion that followed the introduction of pastoralism by European settlers in the 19th century. This paper reports on a set of techniques developed to investigate and quantify the effects of these post‐discard disturbance processes in Sturt National Park in northwest NSW, Australia. Backwards, stepwise, linear regression showed the influence of geomorphic parameters such as slope gradient, elevation, landform, and contemporary surface processes on artifact distribution, with artifact maximum dimension as the dependent variable. The results indicate that, even at low gradients, artifact size and slope angle are significantly related, but that the variance in maximum dimension explained by gradient is very low. Similar results were found for the other geomorphic variables. We conclude that artifact movement by surface wash across these surfaces is unlikely to significantly affect artifact distribution. While vertically conflated surface scatters do not preserve “living floors” in a short‐term, functional sense, their apparent horizontal integrity allows investigation of the long‐term use of place by hunter‐gatherer people in the past. Insofar as assemblage integrity is important for assessing site significance in the heritage management industry, our methods provide a means for assessing the degree to which a site has been damaged by water flow. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.