Decline of brown trout (Salmotrutta) in Switzerland - how to assess potential causes in a multi-factorial cause-effect relationship.

A considerable decline in fish catch in Switzerland triggered a 5-year project (Fischnetz) to investigate potential causes. The results of many field and laboratory studies, together with literature and historical data, indicated a need for a concise synthesis of the results. Therefore, Bayesian probability network (BPN) and weight-of-evidence (WOE) approaches were applied. Here, these both approaches are compared and evaluated. In addition, the potential reasons for the (mis)match in the two approaches were evaluated. In both studies, proliferative kidney disease (PKD), caused by a parasite, and the clinical outbreak supported by various factors, was a very probable single parameter. WOE assessed habitat and streambed quality as likely for contributing to impaired health, recruitment and abundance at single sites only, but this parameter was assessed to be the most important and ubiquitous stressor in the BPN. Mismatches suggested that these factors were either not considered or not equally assessed by the different models, which is due to different endpoints, incomplete data sets and different handling of these various data sets by the applied synthesis approaches.     

MedFlux: Investigations of particle flux in the Twilight Zone

The MedFlux project was devised to determine and model relationships between organic matter and mineral ballasts of sinking particulate matter in the ocean. Specifically we investigated the ballast ratio hypothesis, tested various commonly used sampling and modeling techniques, and developed new technologies that would allow better characterization of particle biogeochemistry. Here we describe the rationale for the project, the biogeochemical provenance of the DYFAMED site, the international support structure, and highlights from the papers published here. Additional MedFlux papers can be accessed at the MedFlux web site (http://msrc.sunysb.edu/MedFlux/).     

Divergent Perspectives on Water Security: Bridging the Policy Debate

Environmental policy discussion is replete with references to water security, food security, ecosystem health, community resilience, sustainable development, and sustainable urbanism. These terms are, by their very nature, ambiguous and difficult to define; they allow room, however, for a variety of actors to conceptualize water, food, ecological, economic, and urban problems in ways that allow them to move forward on contentious issues. This article focuses on the idea of water security and asks how it is conceptualized and used for regional policy debate in western Canada. We asked fifty-eight water stakeholders from the Saskatchewan River Basin to define water security, identify major barriers to security, and prioritize water problems. Responses showed there are myriad ways to think about water security, ranging from narrow conceptualizations, such as reliability, quality, and quantity, to broader sustainability perspectives about the nature of resource development and its social and economic consequences. The human dimensions of water security (governance, land use, and competing demands) were assigned higher priority than its biophysical aspects (flooding, droughts, and climate change). Framing water security to emphasize the human capacity to manage uncertain and rapid biophysical and societal change offers the opportunity to unite actors who otherwise would be separated by core environmental values, definitions of water security, provincial context (Alberta vs. Saskatchewan), and occupation.     

Calculating the two-dimensional magnetotelluric Jacobian in finite elements using reciprocity

To speed up the calculation of the field Jacobian for 2-D magnetoteliuric inversion using finite elements, the principle of electromagnetic reciprocity is applied. The governing relationship for the Jacobian of the field along strike is obtained by differentiating the Helmholtz equation with respect to the resistivity of each region in the finite-element mesh. The result is a similar Helmholtz equation for the Jacobian, with new sources distributed over all nodes within the parameter medium. However, according to the principle of electromagnetic reciprocity, the roles of sources and receivers are interchangeable. Utilizing reciprocity, the field values obtained from the original forward problem and for new unit sources imposed at the receivers are then utilized in the calculation of the Jacobian by simple multiplication and summation with finite-element terms at each rectangle in the mesh. For the auxiliary (across-strike) fields, the Jacobian terms are obtained by solving source vectors loaded with parabola coefficients used in the approximation to Maxwell's equations. Jacobian terms for the apparent resistivity ( p _a), the impedance phase (φ) and the vertical magnetic field ( K _zy) are then calculated utilizing the parallel- and auxiliary-field Jacobians. Comparison of Jacobian values obtained from reciprocity calculations and by differencing two forward solutions show that the reciprocity method is accurate and can be used to decrease the number of calculations required to obtain sensitivities by one to two orders of magnitude.     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Effects of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the onset and strength of urban heat islands: a case study

Air temperature was monitored at 13 sites across the urban perimeter of a Brazilian midsize city in winter 2011. In this study, we show that the urban heat island (UHI) develops only at night and under certain weather conditions, and its intensity depends not only on the site's land cover but also on the meteorological setting. The urban heat island intensity was largest (6.6 °C) under lingering high-pressure conditions, milder (3.0 °C) under cold anticyclones and almost vanished (1.0 °C) during the passage of cold fronts. The cooling rates were calculated to monitor the growth and decay of the UHI over each specific synoptic setting. Over four contiguous days under the effect of a lingering high-pressure event, we observed that the onset of cooling was always at about 2 h before sunset. The reference site attained mean cooling rate of ?2.6 °C h^?1 at sunset, whilst the maximum urban rate was ?1.2 °C h^?1. Under a 3-day cold anticyclone episode, cooling also started about 2 h before sunset, and the difference between maximum rural (?2.0 °C h^?1) and urban (?1.0 °C h^?1) cooling rates diminished. Under cold-front conditions, the cooling rate was homogeneous for all sites and swang about zero throughout the day. The air temperature has a memory effect under lingering high-pressure conditions which intensified the UHI, in addition to the larger heat storage in the urban area. Cold anticyclone conditions promoted the development of the UHI; however, the cold air pool and relatively light winds smoothed out its intensity. Under the influence of cold fronts, the urban fabric had little effect on the city's air temperature field, and the UHI was imperceptible.     

Seismic,petrologic, and geodetic analyses of the 1999 dome-forming eruption of Guagua Pichincha volcano,Ecuador

Guagua Pichincha, located 14 km west of Quito, Ecuador, is a stratovolcano bisected by a horseshoe-shaped caldera. In 1999, after some months of phreatic activity, Guagua Pichincha entered into an eruptive period characterized by the extrusion of several dacitic domes, vulcanian eruptions, and pyroclastic flows. We estimated the three-dimensional (3-D) P-wave velocity structure beneath Guagua Pichincha using a tomographic inversion method based on finite-difference calculations of first-arrival times. Hypocenters of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes and long-period (LP) events were relocated using the 3-D P-wave velocity model. A low-velocity anomaly exists beneath the caldera and may represent an active volcanic conduit. Petrologic analysis of eruptive products indicates a magma storage region beneath the caldera, having a vertical extent of 7–8 km with the upper boundary at about sea level. This zone coincides with the source region of deeper VT earthquakes, indicating that a primary magma body exists in this region. LP swarms occurred in a cyclic pattern synchronous with ground deformation during magma extrusions. The correlation between seismicity and ground deformation suggests that both respond to pressure changes caused by the cyclic eruptive behavior of lava domes.     

The impact of hurricanes on sedimenting particulate matter in the semi-arid Bahía de La Paz,Gulf of California

From 2002 through 2004, time-series sediment trap samples were collected from a depth of 410 m in Cuenca Alfonso, Bahía de La Paz, on the SW coast of the Gulf of California. The instrument recorded the impact of the local passage of hurricanes “Ignacio” (24–26 August) and “Marty” (21–23 September) in 2003. These two events accounted for 82% of the total rainfall measured in 2003, equivalent to the annual average precipitation in years without hurricanes. Mean total mass fluxes (TMFs) of 2.88 and 3.58 g m⁻² d⁻¹ were measured during the week of each hurricane as well as the following week. This may have been enough to produce a lamina in the underlying sediment with characteristics peculiar to such events. The terrigenous component was particularly abundant, with notably higher concentrations of Fe, Sc, Co and Cs and REEs. In contrast, TMFs throughout 2002–2004 (excluding the hurricane periods) averaged only 0.73 g m⁻² d⁻¹ and had a larger marine biogenic component. The extraordinary elemental fluxes during the 29 days of hurricane-influenced sedimentation represented a great proportion of the totals over an entire “normal” year: Co (67.8%) >Sc (62.6) >Fe (59.6) >Cs (53.4)>Lu (51.5)>La (51.3)>Yb (51.0)>Ce (49.5) >Tb (48.4) >Sm (44.7)>Cr (36.5) >Ca (31.0)>Eu (25.4%). The terrigenous fraction was calculated using (a) TMF minus the sum of CaCO₃, biogenic silica and organic matter and (b) the ratio of Sc in the trap samples to the average in the Earth's crust. The latter was consistently smaller, but the two methods offered similar results following hurricanes (78% vs. 63%, respectively). For normal sedimentation, however, the difference method yielded values twice as large as the Sc method (58% vs. 30%) This suggests that the mineralogy of the terrigenous fraction may also vary, with unsorted dessert soil being carried to sea by the powerful flash floods associated with hurricanes. Eolian supply of particles, particularly Sc-free quartz grains, possibly from beyond the limited fluvial drainage basin, apparently dominates normal sedimentation.     

Analysis of Thomsen parameters for finely layered VTI media

Since the work of Postma and Backus, much has been learned about elastic constants in vertical transversely isotropic (VTI) media when the anisotropy is due to fine layering of isotropic elastic materials. Nevertheless, there has continued to be some uncertainty about the possible range of Thomsen's anisotropy parameters ε and δ for such media. We use both Monte Carlo studies and detailed analysis of Backus' equations for both two- and three-component layered media to establish the results presented. We show that ε lies in the range ?3/8 ε ½[〈v²_p〉〈v^?2_p〉?1], for finely layered media; smaller positive and all negative values of ε occur for media with large fluctuations in the Lamé parameter λ in the component layers. We show that δ can also be either positive or negative, and that for constant density media, sign (δ) = sign (〈v^?2_p〉 ? 〈v^?2_s〉〈v²_s/v²_p〉). Monte Carlo simulations show that among all theoretically possible random media, positive and negative δ are equally likely in finely layered media. (Of course, the δs associated with real earth materials may span some smaller subset of those that are theoretically possible, but answering this important question is beyond our present scope.) Layered media having large fluctuations in λ are those most likely to have positive δ. This is somewhat surprising since ε is often negative or a small positive number for such media, and we have the general constraint that ε ? δ > 0 for layered VTI media. Since Gassmann's results for fluid-saturated porous media show that the mechanical effects of fluids influence only the Lamé parameter λ, not the shear modulus μ, these results suggest that small positive δ occurring together with small positive ε (but somewhat larger than δ) may be indicative of changing fluid content in a layered earth.