The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece

This paper investigates whether there is any association between the daily mortality for the wider region of Athens, Greece and the thermal conditions, for the 10-year period 1992–2001. The daily mortality datasets were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Service and the daily meteorological datasets, concerning daily maximum and minimum air temperature, from the Hellinikon/Athens meteorological station, established at the headquarters of the Greek Meteorological Service. Besides, the daily values of the thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were evaluated in order to interpret the grade of physiological stress. The first step was the application of Pearson’s χ ² test to the compiled contingency tables, resulting in that the probability of independence is zero (p?=?0.000); namely, mortality is in close relation to the air temperature and PET/UTCI. Furthermore, the findings extracted by the generalized linear models showed that, statistically significant relationships (p?<?0.01) between air temperature, PET, UTCI and mortality exist on the same day. More concretely, on one hand during the cold period (October–March), a 10°C decrease in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 13%, 15%, 2%, 7% and 6% of the probability having a death, respectively. On the other hand, during the warm period (April–September), a 10°C increase in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 3%, 1%, 10%, 3% and 5% of the probability having a death, respectively. Taking into consideration the time lag effect of the examined parameters on mortality, it was found that significant effects of 3-day lag during the cold period appears against 1-day lag during the warm period. In spite of the general aspect that cold conditions seem to be favourable factors for daily mortality, the air temperature and PET/UTCI exceedances over specific thresholds depending on the distribution reveal that, very hot conditions are risk factors for the daily mortality.     

Bayesian analysis of data and model uncertainty in 3D seismic travel-time tomography

We present a probabilistic analysis of seismic travel-time equations using the Bayesian Method. The assessment of models and data is crucial in 3D seismic travel-time tomography, and a method quantitatively assess the quality of both the data and the model is necessary in order to attain the most realistic results. The Bayesian method that we propose here is more effective than the frequentist approach, both in analysis time and uncertainty minimization, when processing large sets of tomographic data.     

Objective climatology of 500-hPa cyclones in central and east mediterranean region during warm-dry period of the year

Summary ¶An Objective 500-hPa cyclone detection and analysis is performed during the warm-dry period (16 April to 15 October) of the year for the Central and Eastern Mediterranean Region (30°N–50°N, 5°E–35°E). The 40-year NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes gridded data of geopotential height and temperature employed in the study, enable a climatic approach with a spatial (2.5°×2.5°) and a 6-hour temporal (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) resolution. The occurrence frequency for the entire region shows a high interannual variability without significant trends. The frequency maximization over land in the middle of the warm period indicates a possible relationship with land-air temperature difference. Three primary activity centers (Turkey, Black Sea and Genoa) are objectively determined in the frequency domain as local maxima and their intensity is assessed in terms of average geopotential height and temperature values. The Turkey center, though the most frequent, consists of shallow lows in contrast to the Black Sea center, which is second in frequency, but on average, contains the deepest lows amongst the three. The Genoa center, which comes third in frequency, shows the highest variability in the intensity of the lows. Frequency distributions in the area, during the three sub periods (Early, Middle and Late Warm Period) and during the four synoptic hours, provide insight in to the origins of these systems at the three locations and reveal secondary centers, such as the centers in the Adriatic (at 18 UTC), Northern Greece (during Middle Warm Period) and the South Aegean Sea (during Late Warm Period).Received February 20, 2002; revised November 4, 2002; accepted January 16, 2003 Published online July 30, 2003     

Variability of Climate in Meridional Balkans during the Periods 1675–1715 and 1780–1830 and its Impact on Human Life

The periods from 1675–1715 (Late Maunder Minimum; LMM)and 1780–1830 (Early Instrumental Period; EIP)delineate important parts of the so-called `Little IceAge' (LIA), in which Europe experienced predominantcooling. Documentary data, assembled from a number ofsources, in the course of the EU funded researchproject ADVICE (Annual to Decadal Variability ofClimate in Europe), has been used to locate anddescribe events in the southern Balkans and easternMediterranean. The resulting data has been usedfirstly to investigate the incidence of phenomena suchas crops sterility, famine and epidemics and theirrelationships with climate, and secondly to analysethe extent of variability, particularly the occurrenceof extreme events, such as severe winters (cold, wetor snowy), long periods of drought and wet periods.During the LMM and EIP, more such extreme situationswere apparent compared with the last 50 years of thetwentieth century. From the scattered data found for1675–1715 and 1780–1830, the winter and spring climatein southern Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean,especially during the LMM, can be characterised ascooler and relatively rainier with a highervariability compared with the recent decades.     

Precipitation in the Central Mediterranean during the last century

Summary Monthly precipitation data from 10 stations (Patras, Corfu, Hvar, Trieste, Venice, Florence, Rome, Naples, Catania and Malta) in the Central Mediterranean area are used for a period of 95 years (1894–1988). The homogeneity of these precipitation time series is tested and their statistical characteristics are analysed. An abrupt climatic change is found at Naples and Rome. The application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has yielded three groups of stations where the precipitation data indicate similar fluctuations. Group A includes the stations situated along the coasts of the Ionian and Adriatic seas and the station Naples, while Group B includes the Northern Italian stations and Group C includes the stations at Catania and Malta. In all three groups maximum precipitation was observed during the 1930s. The periodicities of the scores of the significant components have been studied by spectral analysis and significant periodicities of 13.6, 3.5 and 2.2 years were found. Finally, a discussion of the relationships between these precipitation fluctuations and circulation types over the Mediterranean is presented.With 5 Figures     

Evaluation of maximum and minimum temperature of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data over Greece

Summary Assessment of the reliability of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data has been the subject of much recent climatological research. In this study, an attempt is made to evaluate the reanalysis data for maximum and minimum temperatures over Greece for the period 1958–2000. Considering that available observations for Greek stations are not included as input in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the evaluation was made using gridded observational data derived from long time series for the examined area, using an objective scheme. The reanalysis data were compared with respect to the intra-annual variability for extreme years, the inter-annual variability of the corresponding temperature anomalies, and their ability to represent cold and warm spells. Also, the correlation patterns between the two datasets of daily and monthly values were examined. In general, it was found that there was good agreement between the two datasets, although some regional and seasonal differences existed and these were associated with topographical features not correctly represented by the reanalysis model resolution, such as land-sea distribution and orography.     

Variation in noble gas isotopic composition of gas samples from the Aegean arc, Greece

In contrast to most other arcs with oceanic plate subduction, the Aegean arc is characterized by continent–continent subduction. Noble gas abundances and isotopic compositions of 45 gas samples have been determined from 6 volcanoes along the arc, 2 islands in the back-arc region and 7 sites in the surrounding areas. The ³He/⁴He ratios of the samples ranged from 0.027R_A to 6.2R_A (R_A denotes the atmospheric ³He/⁴He ratio of 1.4×10⁻⁶), demonstrating that even the maximum ³He/⁴He ratio in the region is significantly lower than the maximum ratios of most oceanic subduction systems, which are equal to the MORB value of 8±1 R_A. Regional variations in the ³He/⁴He ratio were observed both along and across the arc. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio was obtained from Nisyros volcano located in the eastern end of the arc, and the ratio decreased westward possibly reflecting the difference in potential degree of crustal assimilation or the present magmatic activity in each volcano. Across the volcanic arc, the ³He/⁴He ratio decreased with an increasing distance from the arc front, reaching a low ratio of 0.063R_A in Macedonia, which suggested a major contribution of radiogenic helium derived from the continental crust. At Nisyros, a temporal increase in ³He/⁴He ratio due to ascending subsurface magma was observed after the seismic crisis of 1995–1998 and mantle neon was possibly detected. The maximum ³He/⁴He ratio (6.2R_A) in the Aegean region, which is significantly lower than the MORB value, is not probably due to crustal assimilation at shallow depth or addition of slab-derived helium to MORB-like mantle wedge, but inherent characteristics of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) beneath the Aegean arc.     

A factorial analysis of Mediterranean precipitation

Summary Principal Components Analysis of 80 stations dispersed all over the Mediterranean (coastal and of low altitude) and 12 mean monthly amounts of precipitation collected at these stations is discussed. A natural interpretation of the first 4 components is given, followed by an application of the technique of classification according to ascending hierarchy on the matrixA ₁ =I×J ₁ , whereJ ₁ = 4 (the first four components of the previous analysis). Homogeneous groups (classes) of stations are formed (4 classes and 8 sub-classes), which are also described. A discussion follows concerning the influence of atmospheric meridional circulation on the surface and the upper layers, as well as that of geographic factors on the distribution and annual variability of precipitation over the Mediterranean.

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Eine Faktorenanalyse des Niederschlags im Mittelmeergebiet

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine Anwendung der Komponentenanalyse auf eine DatenmatrixA =I×J vor geschlagen, wobeiI über 80 Stationen verteilt im ganzen Mittelmeergebiet (Küsten stationen in geringer Seehöhe) varüert undJ die 12 mittleren monatlichen Niederschlagssummen dieser Stationen sind. Es wird eine natürliche Interpretation der ersten 4 Komponenten gegeben, gefolgt von einer Anwendung der Klassifikationstechnik der aufsteigenden Hierarchie auf die MatrixA _I =I×J ₁ , woJ ₁ = 4 (die ersten 4 Komponenten der vorhergehenden Analyse). Homogene Gruppen (Klassen) von Stationen werden gebildet (4 Klassen und 8 Unterklassen) und beschrieben. Es folgt eine Diskussion des Einflusses der meridionalen atmosphärischen Zirkulation auf die Oberflächen- und darübergelegenen Schichten, sowie des Einflusses geographischer Faktoren auf die Verteilung und den Jahresgang des Niederschlags im Mittelmeergebiet.

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With 4 Figures     

Cryptosporidium and Giardia in Natural,Drinking, and Recreational Water of Northwestern Greece

An investigation about distribution of Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts in natural, drinking, and recreational water in Northwestern Greece was performed. Five rivers (Aoos, Arachthos, Kalamas, Louros, and Voidomatis) and one lake (Pamvotis Ioannina Lake) in Northwestern Greece were investigated during a 10‐month period. Drinking and recreational water (swimming pools) from the area were also examined. Samples were collected from prefixed sampling stations and processed following a modification of standard methods for the microbiological examination of water, as suggested by the APHA/AWWA/WEF. Both Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts were isolated from Pamvotis Ioannina Lake (15 positive/27 examined samples). Significantly lower numbers of Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected in Arachthos River (1/5), Voidomatis River (1/5), drinking water (1/7), and pool water samples (1/9). No Giardia cysts were detected, neither in river water, nor in drinking, and pool water samples. The results clearly show that, with the exception of Pamvotis Ioannina Lake, where contamination of high level was observed, natural water sources of the investigated area have low pollution, resulting in low contamination with parasites.     

Transport of BTEX Vapours Through Granular Soils with Different Moisture Contents in the Vadose Zone

The single-ring aromatic hydrocarbons benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and m-xylene (BTEX) are common and dangerous pollutants in subsurface environments. The diffusive transport of BTEX vapours through the unsaturated zone of the ground is a potential health hazard to humans, living in the vicinity of petroleum fuel contaminated sites. Past studies have shown that gas transport through the vadose zone can be influenced by moisture content due to variations in gaseous permeability, phase partitioning and aerobic biodegradation. In this particular study laboratory soil column experiments were employed to compare the diffusive transport of BTEX vapours through a sand layer of high moisture content, where biodegradation of BTEX compounds occurred, with diffusion through air-dried sand. The presence of a thin soil layer of high moisture content reduced the gaseous concentrations of benzene and toluene and stopped the migration of ethylbenzene and m-xylene vapours, demonstrating its efficiency as a barrier on the diffusive transport of BTEX vapours in unsaturated soil.