Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…     

青藏高原东南缘地貌边界性质的界定及其对高原东南缘扩展模式的启示

青藏高原东南部的地貌结构是高原隆升深部动力过程与高原扩展的重要指标之一,存在受下地壳流驱动的渐变模型和受宽约50～200km的雅砻-玉龙断裂系控制的陡变模型2种不同认识。文中基于30m分辨率的SRTM数据进行数字高程分析,利用高程和水系参数对研究区地貌加以提取和分析,结合野外地貌和构造调研的结果以及前人的相关研究,对高原东南缘川滇地块中部构造地貌细结构进行了详细的解析。研究认为,青藏高原东南边界具有明显的台阶式构造地貌结构,不同台阶梯度带受不同时期发育的NE-SW向断裂控制。其中一级边界位于木里-玉龙断裂,控制了平均海拔4 200m的高原面的东南边界,是渐新世—中新世早期构造抬升的结果;二级边界受中新世中期逆冲活动的金河-箐河断裂控制,其构成丽江—盐源一带海拔中等(约3 000m)、相对低起伏区域的东南边界。高原东南边界的台阶式构造地貌结构反映了高原向SE的前展式逆冲扩展。这种扩展模式并不支持下地壳管道流连续变形模型。     

Test and analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) precast shear wall assembled using steel shear key (SSK)

Reinforced concrete (RC) precast shear walls are extensively applied in practical engineering, owing to their fast construction speed. However, because of the transport conditions, RC precast shear walls have to be separated into small wall segments during the factory prefabrication procedure before being assembled on site. Typically, wet-type jointing methods are adopted to link the segments, which is time-consuming and results in unreliable post-pouring area strength. To overcome this problem, the novel scheme of the steel shear key (SSK) featuring steel shear panels and combined fillet and plug welding is proposed. Three RC precast shear wall specimens with different linking strength, termed as weakened SSK wall, standard SSK wall, and strengthened SSK wall, respectively, and an integrated shear wall specimen were designed. Quasi-static cyclic loading was applied to investigate the specimens' dynamic properties. The test results suggest the prefabricated wall segments equipped with SSKs showed reliable stiffness and bearing capacity and were improved in energy dissipation ability, compared with conventional shear walls. As the shear stiffness and number of equipped SSKs increased, the specimens exhibited higher strength, but their ductility and energy dissipation were slightly decreased. Most importantly, the standard SSK wall specimen could achieve satisfactory bearing capacity and deformability and is thus recommended for precast building structures. Finite element method (FEM) models were established to validate the test results, and parametric study analysis was conducted based on the coupling ratio of the SSK walls. Finally, an appropriate coupling ratio range is recommended for practical engineering applications.     

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

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浙江夏季弱天气尺度强迫背景下午后局地热对流特征分析

利用常规高空观测资料、浙江多普勒雷达产品、ERA5逐小时再分析资料(0.25°×0.25°),统计分析了2015—2021年浙江夏季(6—8月)弱天气尺度强迫背景下午后局地热对流(根据移动速度分为移动型和少动型两类)的时空分布特征、生命周期特征、环境参数特征等。(1)两类热对流触发频次相当,年际变化均较大,但年、月、日变化趋势基本一致,午后出现少动型局地热对流的可能性更大,而傍晚出现移动型局地热对流的可能性更大。(2)局地热对流的触发与地形密切相关,对流高频区位于浙东沿海、浙西北、浙西南山区,浙中北平原和盆地均为低频区,热对流触发频次均随高度增加而减少,多触发于山脉及其附近的中低海拔处,中高海拔地区更容易触发少动型局地热对流。(3)两类对流均在弱垂直风切变环境下即可触发,移动型单体更容易得到发展。     

多时相遥感影像提取湖泊边界信息的融合算法

为了有效改善遥感影像提取湖泊边界信息的可靠性和精度,减少人为误差,提出了一种利用多时相遥感影像提取边界信息的加权平均融合算法以及误差的域法修正处理方法.结果表明,该方法能有效融合各时相影像信息,提高湖泊边界信息提取的可靠性,并且对融合时相变化较大的湖泊边界都有一定的普适性.通过融合算法提取的呼伦湖面积为1928.35km2,修正后的面积为1929.85km2.通过利用地统计学理论对算法的验证及误差分析,得出相对误差空间变异拟合模型的块金方差与基台值之比都小于25%,具有很强的空间相关性,修正后的数据空间相关性要优于融合数据,空间变程也得到了有效地降低,显示修正后的数据对半方差函数理论模型的拟合程度更好.     

山西省县域经济发展差异的时空演化分析

利用核密度估计方法和探索性空间数据分析方法,以山西省107个县域为基本的研究对象,采用2000-2011年的县域人均GDP数据,定量分析了这12年间山西省县域经济的时变特征、空间相关性及其演化趋势.结果显示:山西省县域经济发展总体水平较低,县域经济发展差异显著;晋南地带的经济发展水平明显高于晋北和晋中地带,县域经济发展表现出一定程度的集聚,但远未形成能够带动县域经济发展的稳定的核心区域.在晋北和晋中地带没有出现以大同、太原等盆地县域为中心的带动经济发展的核心县域集聚群,仅在晋南地带出现了以临汾等盆地县域为中心的较高发展水平的县域集聚群;县域经济增长的热点区域自2004年趋于消失,县域经济增长的空间差异比较突出,没有形成增长集聚区域.     

海洋生态文明视域下河口沙坝-潟湖生态修复思路探究

加大海岸整治修复力度是推进海洋生态文明建设的必然要求。沙坝-潟湖海岸具有典型的生态系统和独特的社会价值,同时也因人类活动受到不同程度破坏,是“蓝色海湾”等整治修复项目的重要对象。文章以辽宁省浮渡河口沙坝-潟湖为例,总结国内外河口沙坝-潟湖主要生态修复思路和方法,提出生态修复过程中沙坝-潟湖受损机制和生态修复评估体系构建两个关键技术问题。在此基础上,为深入推进我国海岸生态保护修复管理和海岸整治修复工程实践,需要做好顶层设计和提升整治修复能力两方面主要工作。     

基于Sentinel-2A/B的新疆典型城市不透水面提取及空间差异分析

随着城市化进程加快,自然地表物理结构及属性的变化使得城市不透水面不断增加,进而造成城市土地覆盖类型剧烈变化,极大地影响着其环境质量和生态循环。因此,探讨不透水面的空间变化规律,对建设生态、和谐、宜居城市变得极为重要。本文选取新疆维吾尔自治区（简称新疆）典型城市（乌鲁木齐、喀什、哈密及克拉玛依）主城区为研究区,通过对Sentinel-2A/B影像L2范数归一化处理,结合增强型归一化差值不透水面指数ENDISI（Enhanced Normalized Difference Impervious Surface Index）,采用最大类间方差法（OTSU）自适应确定阈值,提取2017年和2019年新疆典型城市不透水面。结果表明：L2范数归一化处理与ENDISI结合能较好的突显不透水面与非不透水面的差异;OTSU自适应确定的阈值能够很好的区分不透水面,经示例验证（2019年乌鲁木齐主城区）,不透水面提取结果总体精度为86.60%,Kappa系数为0.73。通过对不透水面空间差异分析可知：从剖面线角度分析得出乌鲁木齐北部、喀什中部和北部及哈密中东部和北部ENDISI指数值均显著增加,而克拉玛依北部和中西部区域ENDISI指数值增加较少;从不透水面盒维数分析中得出,新疆典型城市的盒维数值均呈增加趋势,城市结构复杂度不断增强,其中哈密盒维数值最大,乌鲁木齐盒维数值最低,且哈密的盒维数值变化幅度最大,克拉玛依的盒维数值变化最小。本文可为新疆典型城市内涵式发展提供科学指导,为干旱区城市生态环境保护提供理论依据。