Strength of Stacking Technique of Ensemble Learning in Rockburst Prediction with Imbalanced Data: Comparison of Eight Single and Ensemble Models

Rockburst is a common dynamic geological hazard, severely restricting the development and utilization of underground space and resources. As the depth of excavation and mining increases, rockburst tends to occur frequently. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a study on rockburst prediction. Due to the nonlinear relationship between rockburst and its influencing factors, artificial intelligence was introduced. However, the collected data were typically imbalanced. Single algorithms trained by such data have low recognition for minority classes. In order to handle the problem, this paper employed stacking technique of ensemble learning to establish rockburst prediction models. In total, 246 sets of data were collected. In the preprocessing stage, three data mining techniques including principal component analysis, local outlier factor and expectation maximization algorithm were used for dimension reduction, outlier detection and outlier substitution, respectively. Then, the pre-processed data were split into a training set (75%) and a test set (25%) with stratified sampling. Based on the four classical single intelligent algorithms, namely k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN), four ensemble models (KNN–RNN, SVM–RNN, DNN–RNN and KNN–SVM–DNN–RNN) were built by stacking technique of ensemble learning. The prediction performance of eight models was evaluated, and the differences between single models and ensemble models were analyzed. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, revealing the importance of input variables on the models. Finally, the impact of class imbalance on the prediction accuracy and fitting effect of models was quantitatively discussed. The results showed that stacking technique of ensemble learning provides a new and promising way for rockburst prediction, which exhibits unique advantages especially when using imbalanced data.

     

苏鲁豫皖省际边界区经济发展空间特征与类型划分

边界区类型划分与经济发展水平密切相关,对省际边界区经济协调发展具有参考价值.该文以苏鲁豫皖省际边界区为研究对象,利用空间自相关分析、产业差异度等方法,分析该地区经济发展的时空特征,并从产业结构视角划分边界区类型和边界线类型.主要结论如下:1)苏鲁豫皖省际边界区经济集聚特征明显且不断增强,并出现地域分化现象,各省域内县域经济发展水平差异不断减小,而省域间经济差异在扩大;2)经济发展水平高值区和低值区集聚趋势明显,省际边界效应带来的经济差异呈现显著的地域特征;3)根据省际边界两侧相邻地区的产业结构差异,将边界区划分为"桥梁型"和"切变型",将省际边界线划分为"桥梁型""切变型"和"中间型".     

黄河流域多尺度水系统结构变化特征

大河流域的水系统是支撑社会-生态系统的基础,理解水系统的结构变化是深入揭示区域系统演化的关键。基于自然-社会水系统视角,从黄河全流域和二级水资源分区尺度,利用1998—2018年降水、蒸发、径流、社会经济耗水等水系统变量,通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归分析方法,分析了水系统要素的变化趋势及结构演变特征。结果表明：在全流域尺度,降水、蒸发分别以4.25 mm·a^-1、4.09 mm·a^-1的速率上升,但蒸发在空间上的变化更显著;径流量呈现先减少再上升后急剧下降的趋势,且与降水量显著正相关。社会系统耗水量呈现增速减缓的特征,农业灌溉占耗水结构的比例以0.50%的速率逐年下降;城镇公共、居民生活和生态环境耗水比例分别以0.07%、0.29%、0.11%的速率上升。在二级水资源分区尺度,各水系统分异特征明显,兰州至头道拐段及花园口以下区域水系统所支撑社会经济发展的功能已经出现了超载。各水系统要素间具有不同程度的协同演变趋势,在湿润区域,蒸发相较于降水具有明显的滞后现象,但在干旱区域两者变化趋势基本一致。黄河流域水系统要素在时空上均存在明显的异质性,未来人口和经济的进一步发展可能会使区域的水资源压力加剧。     

西藏朋曲流域不同地貌部位流动沙丘粒度特征

沙丘粒度特征不仅能反映沙丘沙物质的来源与动力,也可以体现地形对风沙流运移的改变。对西藏朋曲流域不同地貌部位流动沙丘表层沉积物的粒度特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）朋曲流域流动沙丘表层沉积物粒度组分以中沙（46.51%）和细沙（40.52%）为主,粗沙（5.87%）与极细沙（5.87%）次之,黏土（0.37%）与粉沙（0.85%）含量最低。流动沙丘表层沉积物平均粒径1.41—2.32 Φ,分选系数0.45—0.79 Φ,偏度0.01—0.24,峰度0.98—1.80。（2）从河漫滩到河流阶地到山坡,流动沙丘粒度逐渐变小,频率分布曲线逐渐变高变窄,粒径越来越集中,沿主导风向自西南向东北概率累积曲线斜率逐渐增大,分选性逐渐变好。（3）河漫滩至河流高级阶地流动沙丘表层沉积物随海拔升高粒径变小,坡麓至坡顶随海拔升高粒径变大,分选却变好,表明山坡上沙丘与阶地上沙丘的沙物质来自于不同河段的河床或河漫滩。     

中国城镇化对老年人健康的影响

基于2010年第六次全国人口普查微观数据和夜间灯光数据等,运用多层级logistic回归模型估计中国城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关联,分析城镇化健康效应在不同老年人群体间的差异,并运用倾向得分匹配方法,控制“自选择”机制对分析结果的干扰。结果表明：1）中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康呈显著正相关关系,居住于城镇化水平中等和城镇化速度较快县区的老年人更可能自评为健康;2）城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系在不同受教育程度和户口状态的老年人群体间存在显著差异,城镇化水平和速度对受教育程度较低、持有本地户口老年人健康水平的提升效益更大;3）控制了老年人居住“自选择”的干扰后,县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的正向关联依然稳健,表明“自选择偏误”对中国县区城镇化水平和速度与老年人自评健康的关系没有显著的影响。     

Dynamical Control of Asymmetrically Oblique Tidal Currents to the Sedimentary Characteristics and Development of Linear Sand Ridges in the Liaodong Shoal,East Bohai Sea

The Liaodong Shoal is a group of linear sand ridges located in the east Bohai Sea of China.In this study,54 surface sediment samples have been collected,current measurements at 4 stations have been carried out and bathymetric data were obtained.The current directions are rightward deflected relative to the strikes of the sand ridges.Affected by the narrowing effect of the ridge,the current velocities exhibited an anti-‘C’type vertical profile.The velocities of the lower currents linearly correlate with the water depths.The near-bed current velocities over the troughs are estimated to be higher than those over the ridges,and this feature could be explained by the loss of kinetic energy together with the conversion between kinetic energy and gravitational potential energy.The sedimentary characteristics that are compatible with the tidal dynamics are developed across the ridges and troughs,including grain size compositions,grain size parameters,mineral compositions and Dhm indexes.The existence of the angles between the current directions and the strikes of the sand ridges is the key factor for the growth of the sand ridges.The asymmetric hydrodynamic features between the flood and ebb currents lead to the differences in the topographical and sedimentary characteristics on both sides of a sand ridge.Insufficient material supply led to the degradation of the sand ridges,and the reduction of the tidal current intensity has led to the development of the subordinate sand ridges in the troughs.Sand ridges are migrating.     

Ambiguity resolved precise point positioning with GPS and BeiDou

This paper focuses on the contribution of the global positioning system (GPS) and BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) observations to precise point positioning (PPP) ambiguity resolution (AR). A GPS + BDS fractional cycle bias (FCB) estimation method and a PPP AR model were developed using integrated GPS and BDS observations. For FCB estimation, the GPS + BDS combined PPP float solutions of the globally distributed IGS MGEX were first performed. When integrating GPS observations, the BDS ambiguities can be precisely estimated with less than four tracked BDS satellites. The FCBs of both GPS and BDS satellites can then be estimated from these precise ambiguities. For the GPS + BDS combined AR, one GPS and one BDS IGSO or MEO satellite were first chosen as the reference satellite for GPS and BDS, respectively, to form inner-system single-differenced ambiguities. The single-differenced GPS and BDS ambiguities were then fused by partial ambiguity resolution to increase the possibility of fixing a subset of decorrelated ambiguities with high confidence. To verify the correctness of the FCB estimation and the effectiveness of the GPS + BDS PPP AR, data recorded from about 75 IGS MGEX stations during the period of DOY 123-151 (May 3 to May 31) in 2015 were used for validation. Data were processed with three strategies: BDS-only AR, GPS-only AR and GPS + BDS AR. Numerous experimental results show that the time to first fix (TTFF) is longer than 6 h for the BDS AR in general and that the fixing rate is usually less than 35 % for both static and kinematic PPP. An average TTFF of 21.7 min and 33.6 min together with a fixing rate of 98.6 and 97.0 % in static and kinematic PPP, respectively, can be achieved for GPS-only ambiguity fixing. For the combined GPS + BDS AR, the average TTFF can be shortened to 16.9 min and 24.6 min and the fixing rate can be increased to 99.5 and 99.0 % in static and kinematic PPP, respectively. Results also show that GPS + BDS PPP AR outperforms single-system PPP AR in terms of convergence time and position accuracy.     

武汉城市区域水陆风环流的形成与转化特征研究

大气细颗粒物PM_2.5污染引起的雾霾天气既与本地污染物排放密切有关,也受局地特殊的风场影响.本文以武汉城市区域为研究对象,分别研究了长江沿岸的江陆风环流、东湖沿岸湖陆风环流的形成与转化特征,发现江风、湖风开始时间均为07：00-08：00,一年中最大风速均能达到2 m/s左右,而春夏季江风的持续时间高于秋冬季,夏季湖风的持续时间高于春季.同时发现区域附近温度和相对湿度之间有明显的相关性,湿度变化趋势大体上跟温度变化趋势相反,且温度对相对湿度的影响存在一定的滞后性,延迟时间大约为1 h.     

CINRAD/SA(B)发射机触发器芯片级故障诊断流程

发射机触发放大器主要为调制器中SCR开关管提供放电触发脉冲,同时兼具调制组件的保护功能。发射机触发器芯片级故障诊断流程将触发器故障定位到芯片级,大大降低了触发器故障维修成本,同时为雷达测试平台中触发器故障自动诊断建模提供了技术支持。在发射机触发器信号流程基础上,依据发射机触发器关键点波形或关键点电平,通过触发器故障树图了解故障因果关系,研究出规范化的触发器芯片级故障诊断流程。列举了依据触发器芯片级故障诊断流程,修复了由于单稳态触发器无触发信号输出,导致无-200V放电触发信号的单稳态触发器故障个例。结果表明:芯片级触发器故障诊断流程可以快速定位发射机触发器故障点到最小可更换芯片。具有操作方法简洁、诊断思路清晰、操作规范,基层雷达站技术人员容易掌握的特点,可有效提高新一代天气雷达技术保障水平,保证雷达观测数据的可靠性。     

临沂冰雹发生规律及预警技术研究

利用常规观测资料和多普勒雷达探测资料,对临沂地区冰雹的时空分布特征、冰雹天气的预警参数和指标进行分析研究。结果表明:20世纪60-80年代是临沂冰雹高发期,90年代后明显减少,下降趋势十分明显。5-6月是临沂降雹最集中的时段。山地和丘陵地区降雹频次明显比平原地区的高。发生冰雹天气与环境参数有密切关系,出现大冰雹过程要求更为适宜的0℃层高度,在强垂直风切变环境下出现大冰雹的可能性更大。大部分地面开始降雹都是在C-VIL跃增后2~3个体扫和强反射率因子核心快速下降之时,这两个特征在冰雹预报预警工作中有一定的参考价值,对于冰雹预警的发布具有10~20 min的时间提前量。强回波中心最大值及其所在高度和有界弱回波区BWER或弱回波区WER的范围等都是判断降雹潜势的关键指标。季节性的预警指标在实际业务工作中有一定的参考价值,能够有效提高冰雹预警的准确率。