Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall’s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.     

云南个旧期北山七段玄武岩中磁黄铁矿结构变化分形特征

微观尺度上土壤孔隙、岩石孔洞缝、矿物组构的分形与多重分形研究受到广泛关注,典型的P-A(周长-面积)分形模型、盒子维数等也广泛应用于其中.云南个旧锡多金属矿床老厂期北山垂向上七段玄武岩发育完整,但对其形成机理及对成矿的贡献有较多的争议.这七层玄武岩中磁黄铁矿广泛发育.基于GIS的P-A分形模型研究磁黄铁矿颗粒的大小、颗粒的不规则性及空间分布特征,探讨磁黄铁矿这一标志性矿物在不同层段玄武岩中的变化情况,并为玄武岩的成因给出新的解释.结合盒子维数,分形分析结果显示,从第一段玄武岩到第七段玄武岩磁黄铁矿的面积分维DA和周长分维D,p总体保持不变的态势;而周长-面积分维DPA却有逐渐增大的趋势.DPA增大表明随着深度的增加,磁黄铁矿颗粒不规则性增强.     

山东渤南油田古近系沙河街组沙二段及沙三段低渗透储层成岩储集相

渤南油田位于济阳坳陷的渤南洼陷内,是山东省胜利油田储量最大的亿吨级深层低渗透断块岩性油藏,主要含油层系为古近系沙河街组沙二段和沙三段,属中孔低渗透砂岩储层。低渗透砂岩储层的成因机理十分复杂,为了更精确地预测有效储层的分布及其内部储集性能的差异,应用成岩储集相的概念在渤南油田三区古近系沙河街组开展了低渗透储层质量评价的研究。该项研究是建立在储层沉积相、成岩作用研究的基础上,通过分析低渗透储层成岩作用对储集物性的影响及成岩作用阶段划分,认为造成本区储层砂岩渗透率较低的主要原因是成岩期各种自生矿物的充填和胶结作用。选用流动层带指标、孔隙度、渗透率、粒度中值、泥质含量、孔喉半径均值和变异系数等七项参数,采用聚类分析和判别分析方法,将渤南油田三区古近系沙河街组划分为四类成岩储集相,阐述了各类成岩储集相的特征,并结合沉积相,实现了成岩储集相的时空展布。研究成果将对低渗透砂岩储层的开发起到指导作用。     

古地幔流体及其在大陆克拉通地幔演化中的意义——以华北地台为例

古生代含捕虏体的金伯利岩和新生代含捕虏体的玄武岩同出于华北地台，提供了研究自古生代以来岩石圈演化的深源探针。古生代含金伯利岩的侵位表明古生代时曾存在冷厚的岩石圈；而新生代含捕虏体玄武岩的喷发，表明新生代时存在热薄的岩石圈。岩石圈减薄与“大洋化”是层圈物质交换作用在一定历史阶段中的反映。地幔流体是地幔演化产物，反之又作用于地幔演化。富含地幔流体的幔内剪切带及交代矿物层作为幔内软薄弱带，存在热、流体、化学及机械的耦合，是岩石圈减薄拆沉作用的重要界面位置。     

The geography of the coal industry in the United Kingdom in the 1970s: changing directions?

Conclusion This paper has described some of the changes that have occurred in the geography of the UK's coal industry in a period when decline was the keynote, and attempted to illustrate some of the developments that are occurring in the late 1970s with implementation of the Plan for Coal. Launched at a time when the complete collapse of European energy supply seemed a distinct possibility, that Plan is encountering many problems in its implementation, and its unmodified completion must remain in doubt. The Plan 1974 and its successor embody a fundamental change of direction for the coal industry — from contraction to expansion.But although there is a change of direction at the national scale, at the inter- and intra-regional scales the direction remains largely the same. The dominance of the central coalfields is likely to increase further, while within these areas the trend towards large-scale deep mines in the concealed sections remains strong. Indeed achievement of the new desired direction at the national level, based as it must be on an industry that is price-competitive with other energy sources, may be dependent upon an intensification of these regional trends towards concentration of investment in areas where mining conditions are favourable and high-productivity, low-cost production can be achieved. It is also being recognized that removal of the burden of high-cost inefficient collieries in less favoured, mainly peripheral fields may also be vital to the competitive position:-the overall competitiveness of the industry is ... at present adversely affected by a small proportion of capacity where productivity is low and costs are high, mainly as a result of difficult working conditions. Closure of uneconomic pits as they became worked out will improve the industry's ability to compete with other fuels, (Secretary of State for Energy 1978).It thus appears that in the last quarter of the twentieth century the coal industry in the UK will become more and more focused on especially favoured areas in the central parts of the country, through the twin process of shedding loss-making activities in less favoured peripheral fields, and investing in the ample resources that underline the English lowlands.     

Qinling-Type Lead-Zinc Deposits

Qinling-type Pb-Zn deposits are located in the Qinling fold belt, occurring in the fine-clastic and carbonate rocks of the Devonian marine facies. They are reformed sedimentary deposits originating from hydrothermal waters, and may be subdivided into 2 subtypes: hydrothermal sedimentary deposits (Changba subtype) and reformed hydrothermal sedimentary deposits (Bijiashan-Qiandongshan subtype). In comparison with some of the famous Palaeozoic Pb-Zn deposits in the world, the Qinling-type Pb-Zn deposits constitute an independent type, which possesses some characteristics of both hydrothermal sedimentary deposits (Meggen type) and reformed hydrothermal deposits (Mississippi Valley type).     

A study of abrupt climate change in a simple nonlinear climate model

We use a seasonal energy balance climate model to study the behavior of the snowline cycle as a function of external parameters such as the solar constant. Our studies are confined in this study to cases with zonally symmetric land-sea distributions (bands or caps of land). The model is nonlinear in that the seasonally varying snow/sea ice line modifies the energy receipt through its different albedo from open land or water. The repeating steady-state seasonal cycle of the model is solved by a truncated Fourier series in time. This method is several thousand times faster than a time stepping approach. The results are interesting in that a number of bifurcations in the snowline behavior are found and studied for various geographies. Polar land caps and land bands positioned near the poles exhibit a variety of discontinuous summer snow cover behaviors (abrupt transitions as a parameter such as solar constant is slowly varied), which may be relevant to the inception and decay of continental ice sheets.     

Analysis and interpretation of the paleogeographic distribution of marine sedimentary phosphorites

World-wide distribution of marine phosphorite deposits has been plotted on computergenerated paleogeographic maps of specific geologic time intervals in order to determine if and when optimum arrangements of continents and oceans existed for phosphorogenesis. Geographic input data for the program HYPERMAP consists of digitized continental edges and bathymetry and appropriate coordinates for discrete continental structural blocks. Paleopole and block rotation data were used to construct maps for the following time intervals; Recent, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, 170–190, 250, 280, 325, 350, 375, 400, 450, 500, and 600 Ma. Phosphorite deposits were plotted directly on the appropriate map according to location and age. The major phosphorites have been divided into four types (A, B, C, D)on the basis of the environment of deposition and facies association. A and B types were deposited in water depths of several hundred meters in association with black shales, chert, and dolomite. In terms of reserves of P ₂ O ₅ they show marked distribution peaks in the Lower and Middle Cambrian and the Permian. C and D types were deposited in water depths of tens of meters in association with quartz siltstones, quartz mudstones, and carbonates. Time distribution peaks in the Lower and Middle Cambrian, the Ordovician, Upper Cretaceous-Eocene, and the Miocene are evident for these deposits. The plotted distributions may be related to a recent model of phosphorite deposition (Sheldon, 1980)which suggests that phosphate levels in ocean water have fluctuated with time. Phosphate content built up during times of high-level warm seas was brought into favorable depositional sites by equatorial and tradewind belt upwelling currents. The paleogeographic analysis shows that maximum phosphorite deposition from equatorial upwelling (type C)occurred north and south of narrow constricted equatorial seaways, at times of high-level warm seas. Maximum deposition of phosphorites from tradewind belt upwelling (types A, B, C, D)occurred when polar oceans were wide and there were extensive north-south trending coasts in low latitudes, at times of transition from high-level warm seas to low-level cool seas.     

Evolution of magnetic fields in stars across the upper main sequence: II. Observed distribution of the magnetic field geometry

We re‐discuss the evolutionary state of upper main sequence magnetic stars using a sample of Ap and Bp stars with accurate Hipparcos parallaxes and definitely determined longitudinal magnetic fields. We confirm our previous results obtained from the study of Ap and Bp stars with accurate measurements of the mean magnetic field modulus and mean quadratic magnetic fields that magnetic stars of mass M < 3 M_⊙ are concentrated towards the centre of the main‐sequence band. In contrast, stars with masses M > 3 M_⊙ seem to be concentrated closer to the ZAMS. The study of a few known members of nearby open clusters with accurate Hipparcos parallaxes confirms these conclusions. Stronger magnetic fields tend to be found in hotter, younger and more massive stars, as well as in stars with shorter rotation periods. The longest rotation periods are found only in stars which spent already more than 40% of their main sequence life, in the mass domain between 1.8 and 3 M_⊙ and with log g values ranging from 3.80 to 4.13. No evidence is found for any loss of angular momentum during the main‐sequence life. The magnetic flux remains constant over the stellar life time on the main sequence. An excess of stars with large obliquities β is detected in both higher and lower mass stars. It is quite possible that the angle β becomes close to 0. in slower rotating stars of mass M > 3 M_⊙ too, analog to the behaviour of angles β in slowly rotating stars of M < 3 M_⊙. The obliquity angle distribution as inferred from the distribution of r ‐values appears random at the time magnetic stars become observable on the H‐R diagram. After quite a short time spent on the main sequence, the obliquity angle β tends to reach values close to either 90. or 0. for M < 3 M_⊙. The evolution of the obliquity angle β seems to be somewhat different for low and high mass stars. While we find a strong hint for an increase of β with the elapsed time on the main sequence for stars with M > 3 M_⊙, no similar trend is found for stars with M < 3 M_⊙. However, the predominance of high values of β at advanced ages in these stars is notable. As the physics governing the processes taking place in magnetised atmospheres remains poorly understood, magnetic field properties have to be considered in the framework of dynamo or fossil field theories. (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)