基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

MODULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MECHANICAL FORCINGS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF MEAN MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION

Upon investigating the relative locations of internal and external forcing and the resultant mean meridional circulation,it was found that thermal forcing and mechanical forcing for the formation of atmospheric mean meridional circulation are modulated by a certain ratio.This ratio is determined by the inherent baroclinity,static stability and absolute vorticity of the atmosphere.By employing a parameterization scheme for radiative heating and condensation heating,together with the analysisdata of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,the mean meridional circulation for January wassimulated numerically.It was found that latent heat release in the tropics may result in the formation of double-layeredHadley circulation,so do the eddy momentum transfer processes.On the other hand,mean meridional circulations in extra-tropics are mainly determined by external momentum forcing and atmospheric properties of eddy momentum andheat transfer.     

IMPACT OF DIABATIC PROCESSES IN AGCM ON 4-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION*

The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to "observation" (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by "on-off" switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.     

统计方法在数值模式中应用的若干新进展

目前,数值模式的准确性不断提高,天气预报和气候预测越来越依靠数值模式。数值模式不仅仅是求解描述大气运动和热力过程的方程组,其中也大量使用了统计方法,统计方法是数值模式的重要组成部分。本文对统计方法在数值模式中应用的最新进展进行了综述。首先,分析了统计方法在数值模式的资料同化、集合预报、次网格尺度物理过程参数化方案、数值产品统计释用、延伸期预报、模式检验等方面的应用。然后阐述了贝叶斯统计在数值模式中应用的新进展。最后,对统计方法在数值模式中应用的未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

X射线荧光光谱分析方法的共享

探索了在同一类型X射线荧光光谱仪器之间分析方法共享的可能性。基于量值归一的原理,使用标准化样品建立了两台仪器之间测量数据的可比性,使一台X射线荧光光谱仪建立的分析方法,能够简单转移到其他同一类型的X射线荧光光谱仪上使用,可以获得同样的分析精确度和准确度,从而实现分析方法的共享。实验数据表明,建立的方法简单、实用,能够节约分析方法建立过程中的人力、物力和资源,又能够更好地发挥科学仪器的作用,促进分析方法的标准化和网络化。     

地磁干扰噪声的实验观测

为探查1988年3月前后在北京地磁台附近出现的较明显的地磁干扰噪声,我们在苏家坨—卧龙岗一带布设了8个测点,开展了专门的地磁干扰噪声实验观测。结果表明,该地磁干扰噪声主要是来自香山一带的电磁干扰,其次是北京市的地铁干扰。此地磁干扰噪声出现于每天06~h—23~h(北京时),其主要频谱成分在短周期(T=2—4 m)部分。另外本文的观测研究方法对于监测地磁台站(测点)的环境状况,改正受污染的地磁资料等方面具有实际应用价值。     

青藏高原前期冬春季地面热源与我国夏季降水关系的初步分析

首先对青藏高原地表热通量再分析资料与自动气象站(AWS)实测资料进行对比, 结果表明: 相对于美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气中心20世纪90年代研制的NCEP/NCAR(Kalnay 等1996)和NCEP/DOE (Kanamitsu 等2002) 再分析资料, ECMWF(Uppala 等2004)资料在高原地区的地表热通量具有较好的代表性。进一步利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法分析了ECMWF资料反映的高原地面热源与我国夏季降水的关系, 发现前期青藏高原主体的冬季地面热源与长江中下游地区夏季降水量呈负相关, 与华北和东南沿海地区的夏季降水量呈正相关。而长江中下游地区夏季降水量还与春季高原南部的地面热源存在负相关、与高原北部的地面热源存在正相关。高原冬、春季地面热源场的变化是影响我国夏季降水的重要因子。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE FORMATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper,we use a two-dimensional primary equation model which contains (1) heating ofradiation,(2) heating of condensation,and (3) transfers of sensible and latent heat between air andthe underlying surface.To investigate the causes for the formation of the eastern North Pacific sum-mer monsoon,the data at 110°W are obtained and winds at underlying surface and at 200 hPa aremodified under the conditions (1) removing topography and (2) changing meridional sea surface tem-perature (SST) gradient.In the numerical modification,we find that by removing the topography,the center's location ofthe eastern North Pacific summer monsoon does not change,but the intensity of the summer monsoonis weakened.Also the onset of the summer monsoon is delayed to the end of May.The tropical east-erly jet is weakened obviously,even changes to westerly wind.On the other hand,we find that theSST gradient along 110°W influences the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon distinctly.If theSST gradient is decreased,the center of the southwest wind near 12°N does not exist any more.theintensity of the whole summer monsoon becomes very weak and the circulation pattern of the summermonsoon also changes a lot.Finally,we indicate that both topography and meridional SST gradient play important roles inthe occurrence of the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon.The meridional SST gradient is themost important factor that triggers the summer monsoon and the topography along 110°W influencesthe intensity and the onset time of the summer monsoon there mostly.     

基于指纹识别的室内定位中的隐私保护

基于指纹识别的定位是最流行的室内定位方法.在离线阶段,服务器测量指纹,比如来自特定空间已知位置的不同接入点（AP）的接收信号强度（RSS）,测量后服务器将测量结果保存在数据库中;在线上阶段,用户同时向服务器发送他当前指纹的测量结果以及位置查询请求,服务器将在数据库中查找与测量结果最接近的指纹.虽然这种方法已经被研究了很久,但现有的工作并没有考虑2个隐私要求：供应商希望保护他们花大代价收集的指纹,用户想要对服务器保留他们的指纹测量结果,以避免泄漏位置.为了实现隐私保护,本文提出一种使用加密技术的指纹匹配方案,这个方案在加密情况下计算由用户测量的指纹与服务器存储的指纹的距离,服务器存储的指纹在这一过程中仍处于密文空间.本文证明了这个方案在进行单点定位时能够很好地保证两者的隐私要求.为了减少高昂的时间开销,本文还提出了一个基于网格划分的改进方案,以及以有限的隐私损失为代价的扩展方案.为加强安全性,最后提出了有效对抗特定攻击的对策,在这种攻击中恶意用户可以通过重复定位获得服务器存储的指纹.使用公众 RSS指纹数据集的扩展实验结果显示本文方案足以在实现实时定位的同时保留定位精度.     

招平断裂带留仙庄空白区成矿远景预测

留仙庄空白区位于招(远)-平(度)断裂带中南段,道北庄子金矿东侧。招平带中南段已发现大、中型金矿3处,由南向北依次为夏甸、姜家窑、道北庄子金矿。通过收集分析已知金矿床最新矿床地质特征及成矿规律,总结招平断裂带中南段矿体控矿围岩、控矿构造、矿体赋存的基本规律,对留仙庄空白区进行远景预测,认为该区找矿潜力巨大。