Uncertainties in modelling future hydrological change over West Africa

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the impact of increasing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations on the West African monsoon. For this purpose, coupled and time-slice simulations are used. A global measure of the monsoon changes is defined in order to avoid regional biases and to try and obtain significant results. The position and width of the monsoon in latitude are the main focuses. There is almost no agreement between the Coupled General Circulation models from the Coupled models Inter-Comparison project—Phase II in regard to the impact of climate change on the monsoon. Moreover, very simple discriminations between the models seem inappropriate to get a better signal. The role of the different forcings in time-slice simulations is then investigated. The sea surface temperature (SST) and particularly the pattern of the SST are shown to be the most important forcing. This accounts for the diversity of the results either from the coupled or the forced simulations with different SST changes. With a fixed SST, but of a smaller magnitude in AMJ, there are still uncertainties, coming first from the Atmospheric General Circulation models and the way they balance greenhouse gas and global SST increase. Finally the uncertainty due to the Land Surface models (LSMs) is not negligible. The greenhouse gas and the LSMs are shown to have more impact in August, when the monsoon is at its highest latitude on the continent.     

A new Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory and its astrometric activities

In 1982 a Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory began its activities near Tarija, Bolivia. Observations of 200 000 faint stars, 2822 bright stars (m6) and Halley's comet have been made with the expedition's astrograph.     

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.     

A crustal suture and lineament in North Africa

A possible suture between an old craton in West Africa and the Arabian—Nubian shield is marked by a persistent zone of Phanerozoic weakness. This zone extends between the Nile and Niger deltas and passes through the Qattara embayment, along the Bahariya fault, through the Kufra basin, between the Tibesti and Jabal al Uwaynat massifs, through the Bahr el Ghazal and Lake Chad areas, and along the Benoue trough.     

The Morávka meteorite fall: 1. Description of the events and determination of the fireball trajectory and orbit from video records

Abstract— The Morávka (Czech Republic) meteorite fall occurred on May 6, 2000, 11:52 UT, during the daytime. Six H5–6 ordinary chondrites with a total mass of 1.4 kg were recovered. The corresponding fireball was witnessed by thousands of people and also videotaped by 3 casual witnesses. Sonic booms were recorded by 16 seismic stations in the Czech Republic and Poland and by one infrasonic station in Germany. A total of 2.5% of the fireball eyewitnesses reported electrophonic sounds. Satellites in Earth orbit detected part of the fireball light curve. In this first paper from a series of 4 papers devoted to the Morávka meteorite fall, we describe the circumstances of the fall and determine the fireball trajectory and orbit from calibrated video records. Morávka becomes one of only 6 meteorites with a known orbit. The slope of the trajectory was 20.4° to the horizontal, the initial velocity was 22.5 km/s, and the terminal height of the fireball was 21 km. The semimajor axis of the orbit was 1.85 AU, the perihelion distance was 0.982 AU, and the inclination was 32.2°. The fireball reached an absolute visual magnitude of ?20 at a height of 33 km.     

Numerical studies of the transport of solar protons in interplanetary space

Numerical solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation governing the transport of solar protons are obtained using the Crank-Nicholson technique with the diffusion coefficient represented by K_r=K₀r^b where r is radial distance from the Sun and b can take on positive or negative values. As b ranges from +1 to ?3, the time to the observation of peak flux decreases by a factor of 5 for 1 MeV protons when $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{=}\text{3 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$ where V is the solar wind speed. The time to peak flux is found to be very insensitive to assumptions concerning the solar and outer scattering boundary conditions and the presence of exponential time decay in the flux does not depend on the existence of an outer boundary. At $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{? 15 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$, 1 MeV particles come from the Sun by an almost entirely convective process and suffer large adiabatic deceleration at b?0 but for b=+1, large Fermi acceleration is possible at all reasonable $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0$ values. Implications of this result for the calculation and measurement of particle diffusion coefficients is discussed. At $\text{b?0}$, the pure diffusion approximation to transport overestimates by a factor 2 or more the time to peak flux but as b becomes more negative, the additional effects of convection and energy loss become less important.