Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events because of their high sensitivity to the embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for predictions of large events. Our results suggest a new approach for predictions of large (typically X-class) solar flares based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.     

Final touchdown phases and a guidance and control methodology for a soft Moon landing

This article continues our study of spacecraft guidance and control for a soft Moon landing (see our article “Main braking phase for a soft Moon landing as a form of trajectory correction”). Rationale is given for the objectives of the subsequent (final touchdown) phases. Analytical relations for the main parameters are obtained, and the impact of various disturbing factors is estimated. A methodology is proposed for calculating the main parameters for the whole braking sequence from the sighting altitude of the main braking phase termination to braking engine thrust and its throttle range.     

Observed interstellar magnetized supershells and stellar-wind theories

Early theories of stellar winds from an association of OB stars predicted the formation of a common superbubble enclosed by athin, dense supershell, through the combined effort of the winds from the stars at the center. These early theories were adequate for explaining the primary observational features (defined as: shell age, outer radius, shell speed, shell mass, shell energy), but they were not adequate to explain the secondary features (defined as: shell thickness, shell magnetic field, shell gas density). A recently published theory for a stellar-wind-bubble and supershell, predicting a range ofthick supershells, can now be compared with the secondary observational features.Using the observed parameters from all large (> 100 pc) interstellar magnetized supershells near the sun (< 1 kpc away), I assemble for comparison with stellar-wind theories: (a) the primary observational features of these shells — I find: large shell age, large outer radius, low shell speed, large shell mass, large shell energy; and (b) some of their secondary observational features — I find: thick shell, low shell magnetic field strengh, low shell gas density.     

The influence of the surroundings on the morphology of galaxies

The characteristics of galaxies within galaxy groups are investigated as a function of the surroundings. It is shown that the relative number of the galaxies with different morphological type is correlated with the number of members within the group, but the fraction of E+S0 galaxies does not depend on the mean-pairwise distance between the galaxies, the density of the luminous matter as well as the velocity dispersion in the group.     

EChOSim: The Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory software simulator

EChOSim is the end-to-end time-domain simulator of the Exoplanet Characterisation Observatory (EChO) space mission. EChOSim has been developed to assess the capability of the EChO mission concept to detect and characterise the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets. Here we discuss the details of the EChOSim implementation and describe the models used to represent the instrument and to simulate the detection. Software simulators have assumed a central role in the design of new instrumentation and in assessing the level of systematics affecting the measurements of existing experiments. Thanks to its high modularity, EChOSim can simulate basic aspects of several existing and proposed spectrometers including instruments on the Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer, ground-based and balloon-borne experiments. A discussion of different uses of EChOSim is given, including examples of simulations performed to assess the EChO mission.     

The grain size distribution of matrix in primitive chondrites

The matrix of primitive chondrites is composed of submicron crystals embedded in amorphous silicates. These grains are thought to be the remains of relatively unprocessed dust from the inner regions of the protoplanetary disk. The matrix of primitive meteorites is often compared to chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP-IDPs) which are believed to be of cometary origin, having accreted in the outermost regions of the solar nebula. Crystalline grains in CP-IDPs show evidence of a size–density relationship between the silicates and sulfides suggesting that these components experienced sorting prior to accretion. Here, we investigate whether such evidence of sorting is also present in the matrix constituents of primitive chondrites. We report findings from our study of grain size distributions of discrete silicate and opaque (sulfide and metal) grains within the matrix of the primitive meteorites Acfer 094 (C2-ung.), ALHA77307 (CO3), MIL 07687 (C3-ung.), and QUE 99177 (CR2). Mean radii of matrix silicate grains range from 103 nm in QUE 99177 to 2018 nm in MIL 07687. The opaque grains show a wider variation, with average radii ranging from 15 nm in QUE 99177 to 219 nm in MIL07687. Our results indicate that, in contrast to CP-IDPs, the size distribution of matrix components of these primitive meteorites cannot be explained by aerodynamic sorting that took place prior to accretion. We conclude that any evidence of sorting is likely to have been lost due to a greater variety and degree of processing experienced on these primitive chondrites than on cometary parent bodies.