Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.     

Estimating suspended sediment concentrations from turbidity measurements and the calibration problem

In situ turbidity meters are being increasingly used to generate continuous records of suspended sediment concentration in rivers. However, the usefulness of the information obtained depends heavily on the existence of a close relationship between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity and the calibration procedure that relates suspended sediment concentration to the turbidity meter's signal. This study assesses the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and turbidity for a small (1·19 km²) rural catchment in southern Brazil and evaluates two calibration methods by comparing the estimates of suspended sediment concentration obtained from the calibrated turbidity readings with direct measurements obtained using a USDH 48 suspended sediment sampler. With the first calibration method, the calibration relationship is derived by relating the turbidity readings to simultaneous measurements of concentration obtained from suspended sediment samples collected from the vicinity of the turbidity probe during flood events. With the second method, the calibration is based on the readings obtained from the turbidity meter when the probe immersed in samples of known concentration prepared using soils collected from the catchment. Overall, there was a close link between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity in the stream at the outlet of the catchment, and the estimates of sediment concentration obtained using the first calibration method corresponded closely with the conventionally measured sediment concentrations. However, use of the second calibration method introduced appreciable errors. When the estimated sediment concentrations were compared with the measured values, the mean errors were ± 122 mg l^?1 and + 601 mg l^?1 for the first and second calibration procedures respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interpretations of new features of time domain electric-field structures in the auroral acceleration region

Possible theoretical interpretations of the various nonlinear electric-field structures in the auroral acceleration region are provided.     

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.     

A decision support system-based procedure for evaluation and monitoring of protected areas sustainability for the Mediterranean region

Despite common acknowledgement of the value of protected areas as instruments in ensuring sustainability, and their promotion for the achievement of policies on halting the loss of biodiversity, there is no common approach today for monitoring and evaluating them. This paper presents a novel integrated nature conservation management procedure developed to monitor and evaluate the sustainability of Mediterranean protected areas. This procedure was successfully implemented and formally evaluated by protected area managers in six Mediterranean countries, results of which are presented here together with an overview of the web-based Decision Support System (DSS) developed to facilitate its wide adoption. The DSS and procedure has been designed and evaluated by managers as a useful tool, which facilitates and provides needed procedural guidance for protected area monitoring whilst minimizing input requirements to do so. The procedure and DSS were developed following a review of existing protected area assessment tools and a detailed primary investigation of the needs and capacity of its intended users. Essentially, the procedure and DSS guides provide the facilities for protected area managers, in following a participatory approach to develop a context-specific sustainability monitoring strategy, for their protected area. Consequently, the procedure is, by design, participatory, context specific, holistic and relevant to protected area management and institutional procedures. The procedure was piloted and formally evaluated in Greece, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Malta and Cyprus. Feedback collected from the pilot evaluations is also summarised herein.     

Magnetic properties of some tertiary basalts from West Greenland

Summary Measurements of bulk magnetic properties, including the natural remanent magnetization (NRM), susceptibility and the Königsberger ratio, on over 250 samples of Tertiary basalts from Disko and Nûgssuaq, West Greenland are reported.The NRM intensities in basalts (geometric mean value 3.3 A/m in SI units) were on average three to four times as large as the induced magnetization intensities. The susceptibilities (geometric mean value 2.1×10^–2 SI units) were much more uniform than the NRM intensities. In the majority of samples, the NRM was predominantly of reverse (R) polarity, but samples from a few sites showed a remanence of normal (N) polarity.The NRM of both polarity classes (N, R) was very stable against alternating field (AF) demagnetization with median destructive fields of the order of 20,000–30,000 A/m (250–350 Oe), comparable to those for many stable continental and oceanic basalts. The viscous remanence intensity, as studied by storage tests on some specimens, was found to be an insignificant fraction of the original NRM, except in few cases.The low field hysteresis loops (Rayleigh loops) were studied for some specimens. A qualitative association was noted between wide hysteresis loop and relatively low AF stability, but no correlation was apparent between the loop type and the Königsberger ratio (Q _n) of a specimen.Contribution no. 6 Institute of Geophysics, University of Copenhagen.     

Cretaceous complexes of the frontal zone of the Moneron-Samarga Island arc: Geochemical data on the basalts from the deep borehole on Moneron Island, the Sea of Japan

The variations of petrogenic oxides and trace elements have been studied in the Cretaceous volcanic rocks recovered by a deep borehole from the depth interval of 1253–4011 m on Moneron Island. The volcanic section is subdivided into two complexes: the Early Cretaceous and Late Cretaceous. The rocks of the Early Cretaceous Complex occur below 1500 m. Chemically, they belong to low-potassium island arc tholeiites, and their trace element distribution suggests their formation in a suprasubduction mantle wedge under the influence of water fluids that were subsequently released from subducted sediments and oceanic plate during the dehydration of subducted sedimentary rocks and oceanic basalts and, finally, mainly from basalts. The Early Cretaceous basalts from the borehole are interpreted as ascribing to the frontal part of the Moneron-Samarga island arc system. The volcanic rocks of the Late Cretaceous Complex are situated at depths above 1500 m. They also were formed in a suprasubduction setting, but already within the East Sikhote-Alin continental-margin volcanic belt that was initiated after the accretion of the Moneron-Samarga island arc system to the Asian continent. The island-arc section of the Moneron borehole contains basaltic andesite dikes, which are geochemically comparable with the Early-Middle Miocene volcanic rocks of Southwestern Sakhalin.     

Late Neoproterozoic to Holocene thermal history of the Precambrian Georgetown Inlier,northeast Australia

Carboniferous‐Permian volcanic complexes and isolated patches of Upper Jurassic — Lower Cretaceous sedimentary units provide a means to qualitatively assess the exhumation history of the Georgetown Inlier since ca 350 Ma. However, it is difficult to quantify its exhumation and tectonic history for earlier times. Thermochronological methods provide a means for assessing this problem. Biotite and alkali feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and apatite fission track data from the inlier record a protracted and non‐linear cooling history since ca 750 Ma. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages vary from 380 to 735 Ma, apatite fission track ages vary between 132 and 258 Ma and mean track lengths vary between 10.89 and 13.11 μm. These results record up to four periods of localised accelerated cooling within the temperature range of ～320–60°C and up to ～14 km of crustal exhumation in parts of the inlier since the Neoproterozoic, depending on how the geotherm varied with time. Accelerated cooling and exhumation rates (0.19–0.05 km/10⁶ years) are observed to have occurred during the Devonian, late Carboniferous‐Permian and mid‐Cretaceous — Holocene periods. A more poorly defined Neoproterozoic cooling event was possibly a response to the separation of Laurentia and Gondwana. The inlier may also have been reactivated in response to Delamerian‐age orogenesis. The Late Palaeozoic events were associated with tectonic accretion of terranes east of the Proterozoic basement. Post mid‐Cretaceous exhumation may be a far‐field response to extensional tectonism at the southern and eastern margins of the Australian plate. The spatial variation in data from the present‐day erosion surface suggests small‐scale fault‐bounded blocks experienced variable cooling histories. This is attributed to vertical displacement of up to ～2 km on faults, including sections of the Delaney Fault, during Late Palaeozoic and mid‐Cretaceous times.