Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2^a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].     

The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows

Abstract

The term “environmental flows” is now widely used to reflect the hydrological regime required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems, and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on them. The definition suggests a central role for ecohydrological science to help determine a required flow regime for a target ecosystem condition. Indeed, many countries have established laws and policies to implement environmental flows with the expectation that science can deliver the answers. This article provides an overview of recent developments and applications of environmental flows on six continents to explore the changing role of ecohydrological sciences, recognizing its limitations and the emerging needs of society, water resource managers and policy makers. Science has responded with new methods to link hydrology to ecosystem status, but these have also raised fundamental questions that go beyond ecohydrology, such as who decides on the target condition of the ecosystem? Some environmental flow methods are based on the natural flow paradigm, which assumes the desired regime is the natural “unmodified” condition. However, this may be unrealistic where flow regimes have been altered for many centuries and are likely to change with future climate change. Ecosystems are dynamic, so the adoption of environmental flows needs to have a similar dynamic basis. Furthermore, methodological developments have been made in two directions: first, broad-scale hydrological analysis of flow regimes (assuming ecological relevance of hydrograph components) and, second, analysis of ecological impacts of more than one stressor (e.g. flow, morphology, water quality). All methods retain a degree of uncertainty, which translates into risks, and raises questions regarding trust between scientists and the public. Communication between scientists, social scientists, practitioners, policy makers and the public is thus becoming as important as the quality of the science.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Acreman, M.C., Overton, I.C., King, J., Wood, P., Cowx, I.G., Dunbar, M.J., Kendy, E., and Young, W., 2014. The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 433–450     

Specific features of ice conditions in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait in the winter season of 2005/06

Peculiarities of the ice situation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait during the cold winter of 2005/06 are considered using a set of satellite images in the visible range, accumulated at the Southern Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (in Kerch). The ice conditions of the water area over the last years are examined and compared to the climatic data.     

Corundum-group minerals in rocks of the Khibiny alkaline pluton,Kola Peninsula

Five minerals of the corundum group have been identified in the Khibiny pluton with certainty. Corundum proper and karelianite occur only in hornfels after volcanic and sedimentary rocks. Xenoliths of hornfels mark the ring faults that bound foidalite within the field of foyaite. Hematite occurs in hydrothermally altered nepheline syenite and crosscutting hydrothermal veins related to the ring faults. Minerals of the ilmenite-pyrophanite series are present in all rocks of the pluton, including veins. Accessory ilmenite in foyaite varies from the manganese variety and pyrophanite in the inner and outer parts of the pluton to manganese-free ilmenite in zone of the Main Ring Fault. In xenoliths of volcanic rocks and alkaline ultramafic rocks, ilmenite is enriched in magnesium. The zoning in distribution of the above-mentioned minerals and the character of variation in their compositions from margins of the pluton to its center are consistent with the petrochemical zoning formed as a result of foyaite alteration of near ring faults.     

In situ tensile fracture toughness of surficial cohesive marine sediments

This study reports the first in situ measurements of tensile fracture toughness, K _IC, of soft, surficial, cohesive marine sediments. A newly developed probe continuously measures the stress required to cause tensile failure in sediments to depths of up to 1 m. Probe measurements are in agreement with standard laboratory methods of K _IC measurements in both potter’s clay and natural sediments. The data comprise in situ depth profiles from three field sites in Nova Scotia, Canada. Measured K _IC at two muddy sites (median grain size of 23–50 μm) range from near zero at the sediment surface to >1,800 Pa m^1/2 at 0.2 m depth. These profiles also appear to identify the bioturbated/mixed depth. K _IC for a sandy site (>90% sand) is an order of magnitude lower than for the muddy sediments, and reflects the lack of cohesion/adhesion. A comparison of K _IC, median grain size, and porosity in muddy sediments indicates that consolidation increases fracture strength, whereas inclusion of sand causes weakening; thus, sand-bearing layers can be easily identified in K _IC profiles. K _IC and vane-measured shear strength correlate strongly, which suggests that the vane measurements should perhaps be interpreted as shear fracture toughness, rather than shear strength. Comparison of in situ probe-measured values with K _IC of soils and gelatin shows that sediments have a K _IC range intermediate between denser compacted soils and softer, elastic gelatin.     

The response of the azimuthal component of the ionospheric electric field to auroral arc brightening

We have analyzed the response of azimuthal component of the ionospheric electric field to auroral arc activity. We have chosen for analysis three intervals of coordinated EISCAT and TV observations on 18 February, 1993. These intervals include three kinds of arc activity: the appearance of a new auroral arc, the gradual brightening of the existing arc and variations of the arc luminosity. The arcs were mostly east-west aligned. In all cases, the enhancement of arc luminosity is accompanied by a decrease in the westward component of the ionospheric electric field. In contrast, an increase of that component seems to be connected with arc fading. The observed response is assumed to have the same nature as the short circuit of an external electric field by the conductor. The possible consequence of this phenomenon is discussed.     

白云鄂博REE-Nb-Fe矿床成因的氧、碳和锶同位素及微量元素地球化学证据

根据白云鄂博赋矿白云石大理岩的岩石学特征及地质产状将其分为两类：粗粒和细粒白云石大理岩．它们的氧、碳和锶同位素及微量元素地球化学特征显然有别于分布在宽沟背斜以北典型的沉积石灰岩和白云岩,而和幢源火成碳酸岩十分相似．与矿床进行对比研究说明,成矿流体和矿质主要起源于碳酸岩浆的分异作用,其放射性成因同位素和微量元素保持了地但指纹,而氧和碳同位素组成却向壳源方向漂移,证实碳酸岩浆侵位过程中受大陆地壳的混染作用非常微弱,但是由碳酸岩浆活动所引起的成矿热液体系中却有一定的地表水混人认为白云鄂博REE-Nb-Fe超大型矿床的成因应归属于火成碳酸岩型矿床．     

Dynamics and circulation regimes of terrestrial planets

By the study of simple analogues, either in the form of simplified numerical models or laboratory experiments, considerable insights may be gained as to the likely roles of planetary size, rotation, thermal stratification and other factors in determining the principal length scales, styles of global circulation and dominant waves and instability processes active in the respective climate systems of Earth, Mars, Venus and Titan. In this review, we explore aspects of these analogues and demonstrate the importance of a number of key dimensionless parameters, most notably thermal Rossby and Rhines numbers and a measure of the dominant frictional or radiative timescale, in defining the type of circulation regime to be expected in a prototype planetary atmosphere subject to axisymmetric driving. These considerations help to place Mars, Venus, Titan and Earth into an appropriate context, and may also lay the foundations for predicting and understanding the climate and circulation regimes of (as yet undiscovered) Earth-like extra-solar planets. However, as recent discoveries of ‘super-Earth’ planets around some nearby stars are beginning to reveal, the parameter space determined from axisymmetrically forced prototype atmospheres may be incomplete and other factors, such as the possibility of tidally locked rotation and tidal forcing, may also need to be taken into account for some classes of extra-solar planet.     

Lithospheric thickness beneath the southern Kenya Rift: implications from basalt geochemistry

Geochemical data are reported for samples from the flanks and floor of the southern Kenya Rift Valley in the Lake Magadi area, and from two central volcanoes located within the rift valley. Rift lavas include samples of Singaraini and Ol Tepesi basalts on the eastern flank, Kirikiti basalts from the western flank, and plateau trachytes from the rift valley floor. Central volcano samples are from Ol Esayeiti and Lenderut located on the eastern flank. The rift basalts are mildly ne-normative, moderately evolved (Mg#=0.39-0.62) alkali basalts and show an overall range in differentiation. Incompatible trace element abundances are moderately elevated (Nb=17-51; Zr=93-274; La=17-55 ppm) and show strongly coherent variations and constant inter-element ratios (e.g. Zr/Nb=4.2-5.5; Nb/Ta=17.5ǂ.4; (La/Sm)_n=7.3ǃ.1); isotope ratios are restricted in range (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70393-0.70436; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd=0.51272-0.51280; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=19.87-19.92; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.68-15.70; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=39.56-39.71). Central volcano lavas are more alkaline in character and include basanite (Ol Esayeiti; Mg# >60) and hawaiite to benmoreite (Lenderut; Mg#=0.48-0.38). Incompatible element ratio are similar to those of the rift basalts, although the chondrite normalised REE patterns are steeper (La/Sm)_n=17.4ǃ.2). ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70358, 0.70391), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51280, 0.51267), ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (19.96,20.17), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (15.66,15.76) and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (39.80,40.00) ratios of Ol Esayeiti basanites are similar to the rift basalts, whereas the Lenderut lavas have unusually low¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.512388-0.512453) ratios for their ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70370-0.70481) ratios, and distinctly less radiogenic and variable Pb isotope compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=17.93-19.01; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.43-15.58; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=37.91-39.14). An integrated model is developed in which the geochemical signature of the lavas is attributed to variable degrees of melting to depths within the garnet stability field, and in the presence of residual amphibole. The stability fields of these phases in P-T space indicates that the lavas must have formed within the sub-continental lithosphere rather than within the underlying ambient asthenosphere or a rising mantle plume. The subcontinental lithospheric mantle must therefore extend to a depth of at least 75 km beneath the Lake Magadi area, which contrasts with recent gravity models for the area, which infer that lithospheric mantle is absent beneath this section of the southern Kenya Rift.