说明预报技术和可预报性的一种图表

1.引言在过去25年中,数值天气预报模式以及观测资料和分析系统的改进已使天气尺度环流的业务预报取得了稳定的改进(Shuman,1978)。但是,众所周知,在运动的尺度不能分辨(或不能观测)情况下,由于初始误差的增长,最终将影响所有尺度的运动,使大气运动的可预报性有一个固有界限。即使“完美(Perfect)”的数值模式也是这样(完美模式是指一种不增加预报误差的模式)。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000508

This paper presents the results of a set of numerical models focussing on structural controls on hydrothermal mineralization.We first give an overview of natural phenomena of structurally-controlled ore formation and the background theory and mechanisms for such controls. We then provide the results of a group of simple 2D numerical models validated through comparison with Cu-vein structure observed near the Shilu Copper deposit(Yangchun,Guangdong Province, China) and finally a case study of 3D numerical modelling applied to the Hodgkinson Province in North Queensland(Australia).Two modelling approaches,discrete deformation modelling and continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow modelling,are involved.The 2D model-derived patterns are remarkably consistent with the Cu-vein structure from the Shilu Copper deposit,and show that both modelling approaches can realistically simulate the mechanical behaviours of shear and dilatant fractures.The continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow model indicates that pattern of the Cuveins near the Shilu deposit is the result of shear strain localization,development of dilation and fluid focussing into the dilatant fracture segments.The 3D case-study models(with deformation and fluid flow coupling) on the Hodgkinson Province generated a number of potential gold mineralization targets.     

阿尔金断裂带晚第四纪左旋走滑速率及其构造运动转换模式讨论

在高分辨率SPOT卫星数字影像和大比例尺航片处理、断错地貌制图、野外核实与位移测量基础上, 利用宇宙成因核素(¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al)、碳十四(¹⁴C)和热释光(TL)等多种测年手段, 厘定了各断错地貌面的形成年龄, 得到了阿尔金断裂带不同段落全新世左旋走滑速率: 阿克赛以西的中、西段左旋走滑速率可达(17.5±2) mm/a, 肃北-石包城段为(11±3.5) mm/a左右, 疏勒河口段减少到(4.8±1) mm/a左右, 东端宽滩山段仅约(2.2±0.2) mm/a, 左旋走滑速率突变点位于阿尔金断裂带中东段存在分支活动逆断层向南东扩展的肃北、石包城和疏勒河等三联点上. 矢量分析表明, 三联点东、西两侧左旋滑动速率的减少量转换成了阿尔金断裂带中东段南盘北西向活动逆断层上的地壳缩短和上盘推覆体抬升, 形成了党河南山、大雪山、祁连山等条块山地. 因此, 青藏高原北部物质向东挤出的速率和幅度是有限的, 符合“叠瓦状逆冲转换——有限挤出模型”.     

ADVANCES IN MEASURING TECHNIQUES OF BED LOAD

I.m~UCrIONBedloadisthesedimentwhichmovesalongtheriverbedintheformofrolling,slidingandsaltation.BedloadmaycreatemanyproblemsintheoperationandmaintenanceofnavigationchannelandinthedevelOPmentofhydroelectricity.Dataofbedloaddischargearealsorequiredinthedesignofreservoir,inwhichtheinflowbedloadareallactuallytrapped.Thewaysofbedloadmotionaredifferentfordifferentsizes.Thus,itisextremelydifficulttodeterminethebedloaddischargeaccurately.Manyequationshavebeenproposedtocalculatethebedloaddischarge.H…     

基于高光谱遥感数据提取森林结构参数的研究

以位于三峡库区的龙门河森林自然保护区为研究区,综合利用线性光谱混合模型和几何光学模型,基于高光谱遥感数据提取森林结构参数是本文研究的重点。在研究区地面调查数据的基础上,通过高光谱数据和混合光谱分解法,获得反演几何光学模型所需的四分量参数,根据背景光照分量与森林植被冠层各参数间的关系,反演得到森林冠层郁闭度及平均冠幅的定量分布图,并利用37个野外实测样本进行结果验证。     

STRATEGY OF MAIZE′S CONCENTRATING TO ADVANTAGE AREAS IN JILIN PROVINCE

WiththedevelopmentofagricultureandChina'sentryintoWTO,thesituationofsupplyanddemandinmaizemarkethaschangedgreatly.Facingtherelativesurplusofmaizeandtheformationofbuyer'smarket,weshouldfullydeveloprelativeadvantages,carryouttheunevenstrategyofsupportingthesuperior inmaizeproduction andcultivateadvantagedareasofmaize.Theabovestrategicmeasurescanrapidlyim-provetheinternationally competitiveabilityandpro-ductivityofmaizeinJilinProvince,getoutofthea-griculturalpredicamentandmaketheagriculturalde-…     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

CARBON DYNAMICS OF WETLAND IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN

1INTRODUCTIONWetlandsplayanimportant roleintheprocessofcar-bonstorage.Thetotalcarbonstoredindifferentkindsofwetlandsisabout15%-35%ofthetotalcarboninthegloballandsoils(POSTetal.,1982;GORHAM,1991).Inaddition,wetlandsaresignificantnaturalsources fortheatmospheric CH4 (MOORE,1994).It isestimatedthatabout110×1012gCH4 originates fromanaerobicdecompositioninthenaturalwetlands,CH4 emission fromthenaturalwetlandsis15%-30%oftheglobalCH4 emission andtheCH4 emission from thepeat land at hi…     

EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURE RECLAMATION ON THE HYDROLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN, CHINA

1 THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS The Sanjiang Plain is located in the northeast of Heilongjiang Province, China. Russia borders this region in the north and east. Its total area is 1.088×107ha. The area of plain occupies 61.21％of the total land area and that of hill and mountain amounts to 38.79％of the total land area. It is not only one of the most important regions with large area of fresh water wetlands and with varieties of rare migratory waterfowls, but a…