新建地面气象自动站资料质量控制方法设计

随着观测系统的加强,中国陆续出现许多新建的地面台站、地面自动观测站,但对这些新出现的台站由于缺少长时间序列的历史观测资料,无法通过本站观测统计分析建立质量控制技术.本文在传统的质量控制方法基础上,将全国地面观测站按照地域和气候特征分为8个区域,利用过去25 a存档的地面观测资料建立一套适合于新建地面自动站资料控制技术,对气压和温度采用极值检查、时间一致性检查和空间一致性检查等方法进行质量控制.并利用该质量控制技术对华南、长江中下游及华北地区2005年地面资料进行质量控制,结果表明:该控制方案能有效地将有问题的资料标识出来,可为新建地面自动站资料的应用提供一定的质量保障.不同区域的资料质量控制检查需依据不同地区的气候特点进行划分和统计,这样更能保障质量控制后资料的质量.     

不同深度鱼塘水温状况分析

“七五”期间，黄淮海平原农业开发禹城试区，成功地推广了鱼塘－台田生态系统。为挖掘开发潜力及寻求最佳系统模式，本文结合渔业生产环境条件进行鱼塘不同深度的温度分析，认为，在该区的气候条件下，水深一般保持在１．５￣２．０ｍ较为适宜。     

区域性热带气旋暴雨短期预报系统在MICAPS系统上的移植

利用MICAPS系统上的实时报文资料,以物理量场诊断为动力相似的主要依据,综合热带气旋移动路径及登陆范围来订正,以人机结合方式完成梧州及贺州地区的热带气旋暴雨24h落区预报工具在MICAPS系统上的移植,直观形象地显示预报结果。该工具利用1979～1980年7～9月、1995年7～9月3a的热带气旋实例进行试报,1997～1998年7～9月试运行,均取得较好的预报效果,目前已可以在后汛期台风季节中投入准业务试用。     

24万年来西昆仑山甜水海湖岩芯碳酸盐含量变化与气候环境演化

青藏高原现代气候与环境存在着明显的区域差异。高原西北部的西昆仑山甜水 海地区是高原上气候最干旱的区域。作者于１９９５年６月在该区海拔４８４０ｍ的湖盆首次打钻取芯（ＴＳ９５孔）,获得５７ｍ湖泊岩芯,经对样品的实验室测年和多项环境指标分析,表明,ＴＳ９５孔岩芯覆盖了距今２４０－１７ｋａ间的时间尺度。期间,经历了倒数第二次冰期,末次间冰期,末次冰期早期,末次冰期间冰阶和末次冰盛期几个气候变化阶段。岩芯中     

萨拉乌苏河流域萨拉乌苏组砂丘砂沉积特征

The Salawusu Formation of Milanggouwan section in Salawusu River Valley includes 7 layers of paleo-mobile dune sands, and 4 layers of paleo-fixed and semi-fixed dune sands. Their structures have been observed and their grain size, surface textural features and several main chemical elements have been analyzed. The results showed that： 1） Some of the aeolian structural characteristics of these dune sands are similar to that of the recent dune sands. 2） They are also similar to the recent dune sands in grain size components, and parameters of Mz,σ, Sk and Kg, as well as in several main chemical components. 3） The scattergrams of Mz-σ and SiO2-Al2O3＋TOFE and the probability curves of grain size showed that these paleo-dune sands are different from paleosols and fluvio-lacustrine facies, but are consistency with recent dune sands. 4） Quartz sands have well roundness and surface textural features such as dish-shaped pits, crescent-shaped pits, pockmarked pits, upturned cleavage plates, siliceous precipitates and siliceous crevasses, indicating that they had been carried for a long time by the wind. As the 11 layers of paleo-dune sands possess the aeolian characteristics in structure, grain size, surface textural features and chemical elements, the origin of their formation should be attributed to eolation.     

残余和现今应力场重迭法预测强震危险时区

以红河断裂带测区为例，用Ｘ射线法测量了测区的古构造残余应力场及其应变能密度场，用有限单元法计算了测区在两种边界条件下的水平最大剪应力场，用实验和理论证明了古构造残余主压应力大小和方向对岩石破坏、破裂扩展和震级的影响。用上述方法预测，松平—南涧、玉溪—开远、普洱为测区内强震危险区段。结合地球自转角速度相对变率的天文观测曲线在时间轴上的外延，预测得１９８９－１９９６、１９９９－２００４、２００７－２０１３、２０１６－２０１８年为测区内强震危险时段。     

基于多尺度混合滤波的GRAPES_3Dvar及其在实际暴雨预报中的应用分析

为提高暴雨的数值模拟和预报效果,在生成初值的同化分析中保证中小尺度信息的引入十分重要。为改善GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)区域三维变分同化系统对中小尺度信息的引入,本文利用气候态背景误差样本估计变量误差的水平协相关尺度,进而利用三个不同水平特征尺度的递归滤波器对统计结果予以拟合,以替代原有单一尺度的递归滤波方案。利用新方案对2015年6月1—2日江汉平原的暴雨过程进行同化和预报,研究结果表明:新方案的功率谱衰减较慢,通过单点试验和分析场分析发现,新同化方案引入了更多的α中尺度信息;在暴雨个例的预报中发现,利用新同化方案后湿度场、散度场和涡度场在分析场和预报场中更加接近实际情况,降水预报技巧明显提高。通过能量谱分析发现,新方案与原方案相比反映出更多的α中尺度信息;新方案对江汉平原地区暴雨预报具有正效果,在α中尺度内出现了低层辐合、高层辐散及湿度增加等有利于降水的要素。在暴雨个例的基础上,本文进行16d的批量试验,结果显示新方案对降水的预报技巧明显提高,与个例结果一致。     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

Sea-level changes controlled detrital sediment inputs to the Bicol Shelf in the western Philippine Sea since 150 ka

Detrital sediments derived from the Philippine Islands are one of the main sources of deep-sea sediments in the western Philippine Sea.However,systematic research on their characteristics and transport mechanisms are lacking.We used parametric end-member analysis to quantitatively partition the grain size of detrital sediments in core MD06-3052 from the Bicol Shelf in the western Philippine Sea;three endmembers EMI,EM2,and EM3,whose respective modes were at 2,10,and 45 μm,were separated.We also measured the Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of different size fractions(4 and 20 μm) of the detrital sediments and the results showed that the detrital sediments mainly originate from the Philippine Islands.Components EMI and EM2 are transported to the Bicol Shelf mainly by surface and bottom currents from the islands,and component EM3 is delivered by gravity flow from the exposed shelf during low sea-level stands.The content of the total detrital fraction and the three end-members,as well as the mass accumulation rates(MARs) of the coarse detritus(EM2 and EM3),were considerably higher during glacial periods(40-14 ka and 150-130 ka) than during other intervals;the glacials corresponded to a low sea level,while the MAR of the fine detritus(EMI) did not increase remarkably during 40-14 ka.We therefore concluded that the input of coarse detritus to the Bicol Shelf from the islands was mainly controlled by sea-level change.Variations of the input of fine-grained detritus(EM1) was influenced not only by sea level but also by ocean currents and regional precipitation.Overall,our results help understand "source-to-sink" processes in the western Pacific marginal seas and their response to global change.     

磁流变液及结构减振智能驱动器

本文,首先通过正交试验研究了磁流变液各组分对其性能的影响作用及作用机理.试验表明,油酸的主要作用是提高磁性颗粒的溶解性,而OP乳化剂的主要作用是提高磁性颗粒的分散能力.其次,根据以上的试验结果,在大量具体对比试验的基础上,研制成功了一种剪切屈服强度高、沉降稳定性好的磁流变液.而后,根据磁流变液的流变特性,结合磁路特点,设计制作了一个额定电压为9V、电流为2A、功率为20W的磁流变减振驱动器,并测试了此驱动器的阻尼力及时间响应特性.测试表明,本减振驱动器的响应时间是0.2至0.3秒,而不是理论响应时间的10毫秒.最后,分析了响应时间的影响因素.