The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.

POLICY INSIGHTS

• No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.

• No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.

• Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.

• Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

     

Hydrogeochemical and nitrate isotopic evolution of a semiarid mountainous basin aquifer of glacial-fluvial and paleolacustrine origin (Lake Titicaca,Bolivia): the effects of natural processes and anthropogenic activities

Hydrogeology Journal - A hydrogeochemical and stable isotopic ( $${\updelta }^{15}{\mathrm{N}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ and $${\updelta }^{18}{\mathrm{O}}_{{\mathrm{NO}}_{3}}$$ ) multitracer approach...     

Possible correlation between miocene global climatic changes and magnetic proxies,using neuro fuzzy logic analysis in a stratigraphic well at the Llanos foreland basin,Colombia

In this work we have assessed the hybrid algorithm of NeuroFuzzy logic (NFL), to establish a correlation between global climatic changes (benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O data), experimental S-ratio (factor characterizing stability of remanent magnetization) and magnetic susceptibility (κ). Magnetic proxies have been measured in 44 samples of the Colombian stratigraphic well Saltarín 1A (distal Llanos foreland basin). κ and Sratios were linked to global δ¹⁸O data assuming a constant accumulation rate for a 305 meters thick stratigraphic interval flanked by the two palynological age constrains available. This interval encompasses, from top to base, the bottom of the Guayabo formation, the León, and the upper unit of the Carbonera formations (lower to middle Miocene). The best inference is accomplished applying a Takagi-Sugeno-Kan (TSK) fuzzy model with four fuzzy rules and the δ¹⁸O, S-ratios and κ data used in a linear form to train the system. These results are interpreted as the outcome of a significant influence of global climatic changes upon magnetic proxies. A stronger correlation is perhaps prevented by the likely influence of local and regional tectonic events and climatic changes that could have affected the distal segment of the Colombian Llanos foreland basin during Miocene times. We argue that late diagenesis of primary magnetic minerals and the assumption of a constant accumulation rate might have a minor influence on these results.