Thermal anomalies associated with shallow gas hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano, Lake Baikal

Thermal measurements and hydrate mapping in the vicinity of the K-2 mud volcano in Lake Baikal have revealed a particular type of association of thermal anomalies (29–121?mW?m^–2) near hydrate-forming layers. Detailed coring within K-2 showed that hydrates are restricted to two distinct zones at sub-bottom depths exceeding 70–300?cm. Temperature data from stations with hydrate recovery and degassing features all display low thermal gradients. Otherwise, the thermal gradients within the mud volcano are generally increased. These findings imply a more complicated thermal regime than often assumed for mud volcanoes, with important roles for both fluids and hydrates. The coexistence of neighbouring low and high thermal anomalies is interpreted to result from discharging and recharging fluid activity, rather than hydrate thermodynamics. It is suggested that hydrates play a key role in controlling the fluid circulation pattern at an early stage. At a later stage, the inflow of undersaturated lake water would favour the dissolution of structure I hydrates and the formation of structure II hydrates, the latter having been observed on top of structure I hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano.     

Features of Winter Thunderstorms in Kamchatka

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Winter thunderstorms in Kamchatka are a rare meteorological phenomenon. Temporal variations of the quasi-static electric field and meteorological values at the Paratunka...     

Heat flow map of the European part of the U.S.S.R.

A heat flow isoline map is presented. Low and relatively constant heat flow has been observed in the old shield areas of the East European Platform (25–40 mW/m²). Increased heat flow (>50 mW/m²) has been found in the Dniepr-Donetz depression. The area south of the East European Platform is characterized by highly variable heat flow (55–100 mW/m²). Some geophysical implications are discussed.     

Estimating the Contributions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Variations in the Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases to Surface Air Temperature Trends from Observations

We have quantitatively estimated the contributions of anthropogenic forcing characterized by variations in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases and of natural variability characterized by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the trends of global surface air temperature from observations since the middle of the nineteenth century on the basis of three-component autoregressive models.     

Multi-Wavelength Synchrotron Radiation XRF Determination of U and Th in Sedimentary Cores from Lake Baikal

A new technique for the determination of uranium and thorium in lacustrine sediments is based on non-destructive synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence analysis (SR-XRF) of sediment samples using monochromatic beams of different energies as excitation sources, with the recording and subsequent iterative processing of the X-ray fluorescence spectra. The technique has a multielement capability and enables fast, simultaneous analysis of a few tens of elements. The proposed SR-XRF technique was tested against INAA and ICP-MS methods and showed a number of advantages with a generally good correlation of results by the three methods. Uranium and Th profiles have been measured at a time resolution of 2 kyr in a drill core (BDP-96) from Lake Baikal bottom sediments deposited between 780 and 40 kyr B P. During this time span, peaks in the U and U/Th concentration marked warm climates. Oscillations of U and U/Th in Baikal bottom sediments during the Brunhes chron reflect climate-induced global change in the volume of polar ice, controlled by long-term cyclicity of the Earths orbital parameters. The response of these warm periods is similar to that observed earlier in shorter cores that span the two last interglacials (220-0 kyr BP).     

Patterns of seismic swarm activity in the Corinth Rift in 2000–2005

Based on the data of the detailed earthquake catalog provided on the website of the Corinth Rift Laboratory, zones of swarm activity are revealed and the variations in the statistical parameters of seismic swarms that occurred in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth are calculated. The preliminary analysis of the catalogue is carried out; the magnitude of completeness and the accuracy of the location of the earth-quake are estimated; the changes in these parameters associated with the development of the observational network are assessed. The b-value (b-values) and the cluster dimension of the set of hypocenters are estimated, and time variations in these parameters in the course of the evolution of swarm activity are revealed. The style of changes in the parameters characterizing the seismic regime during intervals of swarm activity indicates that the process of failure exhibits scale redistribution over the course of time, changing from upscaling (progression from smaller to larger scales) at the stage of increasing seismicity to downscaling (progression from larger to lower scales) at the stage of decay. These particular features of enhancement and reduction of swarm seismicity are qualitatively similar to the scenarios of source preparation and aftershock relaxation of strong earthquakes. The pattern of variations of the swarm seismicity studied is similar to those identified in the previous laboratory and field modeling of various transient modes of seismicity. This fact confirms the relevancy of the retrieved results and conclusions based on the laboratory studies of transient modes, and suggests that the latter have a universal governing mechanism.     

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO₂ will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.     

Contribution of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Surface Air Temperature Trends

The contributions of radiative forcing of greenhouse gases (GHG) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the trends in global surface air temperature (GST) and surface air temperature for different latitude bands are estimated. Instrumental observational data obtained since the middle of the 19th century and three-component autoregressive models are used. Characteristics of influences of both factors on GST (Wiener–Granger causality) are obtained. The contribution of AMO over the length intervals of 15–30 years appears comparable in absolute value to the contribution of GHG and sometimes even exceeds it, while its contribution over 60-year and longer periods is insignificant. During the recent decades, GHG contribute stronger to the trends of GST and tropical surface air temperature, while their contribution to the trends in surface air temperature in the middle and high latitudes is smaller.