Refraction studies in the North American Levelling Datum NAVD 88

Despite the noisy character of the data in the new North American levelling net (Zilkoski et al. 1989) it is quite easy to see the refraction corrections mirrored in the polygon closing errors if one takes only those polygons with sufficiently high refraction corrections. The following table illustrates this point. In the table the first column denotes the limit of the accumulated refraction corrections (found from temperature measurements) along a polygon, that is only polygons where the refraction correction exceeds this limit participate in the analysis. The second column is the estimate of the correlation coefficient between refraction corrections and the closing errors of the polygons while the third column is the significance level in the conventional student-test of whetherr is different from zero.     

Radiative heat transfer in lithospheric geodynamics: implications for asthenospheric partial melting and basin modelling concepts

In geodynamic models describing basin formation by stretching, the base of the lithosphere is commonly defined by a fixed temperature. An alternative definition is proposed where the base of the lithosphere is determined by the solidus of mantle rocks. Some consequences of this definition are illustrated in a one-dimensional model. The model applies the finite-difference method and approximates the temperature regime in the upper 400 km of the Earth. The model uses temperature-dependent thermal conductivity and includes effects from heat storage by partial melting in the mantle low-velocity layer (MLV). Radiative heat transfer contributes significantly at elevated temperatures giving rise to a steepening of the thermal gradient below the lithosphere. This change in gradient allows the perturbed geotherm to exceed the mantle solidus in a limited depth interval, which accounts for the MLV, and thus defines the base of the lithosphere.

In the model, variations in thickness of, and degree of partial melting in the MLV, results from thinning of the overlying lithospheric plate. Thus, the thickness of the MLV is roughly inversely proportional to the thickness of the lithosphere, whereas the base of the MLV is almost flat.

Temperature-dependent variations in the carrying capacity of the MLV, where the main isostatic compensation occurs, is proposed as an epeirogenetic agent. This effect may be significant, and is expressed as an enhancement of the initial subsidence if no preexisting MLV is available. A secondary effect occurs as solidification of the MLV ceases a long time (˜ 300 Ma) after stretching, and causes slow uplift.     

Statistical estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms in contaminated aquifers

Using monitored natural attenuation is an increasingly popular strategy for dealing with contaminated aquifers. This paper provides a statistical methodology for the estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms. The methodology provides estimates, with associated measures of uncertainty, of the relative efficiency of four types of bio-degradation (oxidation using oxygen as the electron-acceptor, denitrification, iron reduction and sulfate reduction). A data set from Trecate, Italy, is analysed using the methodology. The analysis shows that sulfate is the main cause of hydrocarbon removal on this site. It is also seen that oxidation using oxygen seems to be more preferential than the other reactions, in the sense that this reaction is relatively more efficient than other reactions at locations where the hydrocarbon concentration is low.     

Determining extreme parameter correlation in ground water models

In ground water flow system models with hydraulic-head observations but without significant imposed or observed flows, extreme parameter correlation generally exists. As a result, hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In complicated problems, such correlation can go undetected even by experienced modelers. Extreme parameter correlation can be detected using parameter correlation coefficients, but their utility depends on the presence of sufficient, but not excessive, numerical imprecision of the sensitivities, such as round-off error. This work investigates the information that can be obtained from parameter correlation coefficients in the presence of different levels of numerical imprecision, and compares it to the information provided by an alternative method called the singular value decomposition (SVD). Results suggest that (1) calculated correlation coefficients with absolute values that round to 1.00 were good indicators of extreme parameter correlation, but smaller values were not necessarily good indicators of lack of correlation and resulting unique parameter estimates; (2) the SVD may be more difficult to interpret than parameter correlation coefficients, but it required sensitivities that were one to two significant digits less accurate than those that required using parameter correlation coefficients; and (3) both the SVD and parameter correlation coefficients identified extremely correlated parameters better when the parameters were more equally sensitive. When the statistical measures fail, parameter correlation can be identified only by the tedious process of executing regression using different sets of starting values, or, in some circumstances, through graphs of the objective function.     

Late Glacial and Holocene Palaeoenvironmental Changes in the Rostov-Yaroslavl’ Area, West Central Russia

Three lake sediment sequences (lakes Nero, Chashnitsy, Zaozer’e) from the Rostov-Jaroslavl’ region north of Moscow were studied to provide information on palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes during the past 15,000 cal yr. The multi-proxy study (i.e., pollen, macrofossils, mineral magnetic measurements, total carbon, nitrogen and sulphur) is chronologically constrained by AMS ¹⁴C measurements. Lake Nero provided the longest sedimentary record back to ca. 15,000 cal yr BP, while sediment accumulation began around ca. 11,000 cal yr BP in the two other lakes, possibly due to melting of permafrost. Limnic plant macrofossil remains suggest increased lake productivity and higher mean summer temperatures after 14,500 cal yr BP. While the late glacial vegetation was dominated by Betula and Salix shrubs and various herbs, it appears that Betula sect. Albae became established as early as 14,000 cal yr BP. Major hydrological changes in the region led to distinctly lower lake levels, starting 13,000 cal yr BP in Lake Nero and ca. 9000 cal yr BP in lakes Chashnitsy and Zaozer’e, which are situated at higher elevations. These changes resulted in sedimentary hiatuses in all three lakes that lasted 3500–4500 cal yr. Mixed broad-leaved – coniferous forests were widespread in the area between 8200 and 6100 cal yr BP and developed into dense, species-rich forests between 6100 and 2500 cal yr BP, during what was likely the warmest interval of the studied sequences. Agricultural activity is documented since 500 cal yr BP, but probably began earlier, since Rostov was a major capital by 862 A.D. This apparent gap may be caused by additional sedimentary hiatuses around 2500 and 500 cal yr BP.     

From well-test data to input to stochastic continuum models: effect of the variable support scale of the hydraulic data

The question of how well the true underlying hydraulic conductivity statistics of heterogeneous media are captured by well tests is addressed. The hydraulic conductivity value and the corresponding support volume associated with a theoretical well are correlated, causing a bias in the statistics derived from well-test analyses. Statistics derived from numerically simulated well tests are compared with the known underlying conductivity statistics and the results indicate an under-prediction by simulations at higher hydraulic conductivities. The deviation starts at about mean conductivity and can be as large as an order of magnitude, with the conductivity in the vicinity of the well defining the upper boundary. In other words, the conductivity value interpreted from the well test cannot be larger than the value that the well test first encounters. Consequently, for data in this simulation exercise, the standard deviation, if only determined for the upper range of the conductivity values, would be underestimated by a factor of 1.6–2. While this specific range is likely to depend on the scale and degree of the underlying heterogeneity as well as the duration of the test, the results should be indicative of a more general behaviour and are likely to occur in other heterogeneous data as well.

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Resumen Se plantea la pregunta de qué tan bien son representadas en las pruebas de pozo, las estadísticas reales de conductividad hidráulica subyacente de medios heterogéneos. Son correlacionados el valor de conductividad hidráulica y el volumen de apoyo correspondiente asociado con un pozo teórico, causando una distorsión en las estadísticas derivadas del análisis de la prueba de pozo. Las estadísticas derivadas de las pruebas de pozo simuladas numéricamente son comparadas con las estadísticas de conductividad subyacente conocidas, y los resultados indican una sub-predicción por las simulaciones hechas con conductividades hidráulicas más altas. La desviación empieza casi con la conductividad media y puede ser tan grande como un orden de magnitud, con la conductividad en la vecindad del pozo definiendo el límite superior. En otras palabras, el valor de conductividad interpretado a partir de la prueba del pozo no puede ser más grande que el valor que la prueba de pozo encuentre primero. Por consiguiente, para los datos en este ejercicio de simulación, la desviación estándar, si solamente fue determinada para el rango superior de los valores de conductividad, se subestimaría en un factor de 1.6–2. Mientras es probable que este rango específico dependa de la escala y del grado de la heterogeneidad subyacente, así como de la duración de la prueba, los resultados deben ser indicativos de un comportamiento más general y son probables también de ocurrir en otros datos heterogéneos.

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Résumé Nous posons ici la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les statistiques de la conductivité hydraulique des milieux hétérogènes pourrait être révélée par des essais de puits. La valeur de la conductivité hydraulique et le volume capté correspondant sont corrélés, créant un biais dans l’analyse des statistiques dérivées des essais de puits. Les statistiques en provenance de simulations numériques d’essais de puits sont comparées avec les statistiques de conductivités connues et les résultats indiquent une sous-évaluation par les simulations, pour les conductivités hydrauliques les plus élevées: la déviation commence à partir de la valeur moyenne de la conductivité et peut atteindre la magnitude d’un ordre de grandeur en considérant la conductivité mesurée au voisinage du puits. Autrement dit, la valeur de la conductivité interprétée via l’essais de pompage ne peut être plus importante que les premières valeurs rencontrées. Par conséquence, pour les données de cet exercice de simulation, la déviation standard sera sous-estimée d’un facteur compris entre 1.6–2 pour les valeurs les plus élevées. Tandis que l’échelle spécifique de valeurs est dépendante de l’échelle et du degré de l’hétérogénéité souterraine, de même que de la durée du test, les résultats pourraient être indicatifs d’un comportement plus général et seraient sans doute observables dans d’autres cas de données hétérogènes.

     

Bioaccumulation of radiocaesium in Arctic seals

Seals are high trophic level feeders that bioaccumulate many contaminants to a greater degree than most lower trophic level organisms. Their trophic status in the marine food web and wide-spread distribution make seals useful sentinels of arctic environmental change. The purpose of this investigation is to document the levels and bioaccumulation potential of radiocaesium in high latitude seal species for which data have not previously been available. The study was carried out on harp, ringed, and bearded seals caught north of the island archipelago of Svalbard (82°N) in 1999. The results are then compared with previous studies in order to elucidate factors responsible for bioaccumulation in Arctic seals. Concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs were determined in muscle, liver and kidney samples from a total of 10 juvenile and one adult seal. The mean concentration in muscle samples for all animals was 0.23±0.045 Bq/kg f.w. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in both liver and kidney samples were near detection limits (≈0.2 Bq/kg f.w.). The results are consistent with previous studies indicating low levels of radiocaesium in Arctic seals in response to a long term trend of decreasing levels of ¹³⁷Cs in the Barents Sea region. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) estimated for seals from NE Svalbard are low, ranging from 34 to 130. Comparing these values with reported BCFs for Greenland seals from other sectors of the European Arctic, we suggest that the combination of physiological and ecological factors on radiocaesium bioaccumulation is comparable among different Arctic seal populations. The application of this work to Arctic monitoring and assessment programs is discussed.