Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.     

Review and enhancement of 3D concrete models for large‐scale numerical simulations of concrete structures

The present paper focuses on selected plasticity and damage‐plasticity models for describing the 3D material behavior of concrete. In particular, a plasticity model and a damage‐plasticity model are reviewed and evaluated. Based on the results of the evaluation, enhancements are proposed, aiming at improving the correspondence between predicted and observed material behavior and aiming at implementing a robust and efficient stress update algorithm in a finite element program for performing large‐scale 3D numerical simulations of concrete structures. The capabilities of the concrete models are demonstrated by 3D numerical simulations of benchmark tests with combined bending and torsional loading and combined compression and shear loading and by a large‐scale 3D finite element analysis of a model test of a concrete arch dam. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of variable wind shear on the mesoscale circulation forced by slab‐symmetric diabatic heating

Abstract

We examine the response of stably stratified airflow to a slab‐symmetric diabatic forcing associated with condensation in long‐lasting precipitation bands. The steady‐state linearized Boussinesq equations are used to model the diagnostic relationship between the vertical motion field, the heating source and the ambient flow. The basic‐state flow is assumed to be horizontally uniform and non‐rotating, but the static stability and wind vary in the vertical. Linear theory shows that the speed of the along‐band wind component is unimportant for slab‐symmetric heating since it cannot contribute towards the advection of buoyancy or vertical motion.

For typical atmospheric stratification and a moving heating source associated with a cloud band, the Taylor‐Goldstein equation is solved numerically. The numerical results show that the cross‐band wind shear tilts the updraft core and broadens it. While the magnitude of the shear is increased, the circulation becomes stronger. The details of the wind profile are also important in determining the intensity and structure of the circulation. When the wind profile indicates a convex bulge (i.e. the low‐level shear is weaker than the upper‐level shear), the circulation becomes slightly weaker in comparison with the linear wind profile. Conversely, the circulation becomes stronger when the wind profile has a concave shape. Increasing the concave bulge tends to enhance the circulation but not in a monotonic fashion. This non‐monotonic relation between the vertical motion and the parabolic wind profile is interpreted in terms of kinetic energy changes of parcels that interchange their altitudes.     

Soil‐pile interaction in the pile vertical vibration considering true three‐dimensional wave effect of soil

The dynamic response of an end bearing pile embedded in a linear visco‐elastic soil layer with hysteretic type damping is theoretically investigated when the pile is subjected to a time‐harmonic vertical loading at the pile top. The soil is modeled as a three‐dimensional axisymmetric continuum in which both its radial and vertical displacements are taken into account. The pile is assumed to be vertical, elastic and of uniform circular cross section. By using two potential functions to decompose the displacements of the soil layer and utilizing the separation of variables technique, the dynamic equilibrium equation is uncoupled and solved. At the interface of soil‐pile system, the boundary conditions of displacement continuity and force equilibrium are invoked to derive a closed‐form solution of the vertical dynamic response of the pile in frequency domain. The corresponding inverted solutions in time domain for the velocity response of a pile subjected to a semi‐sine excitation force applied at the pile top are obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and the convolution theorem. A comparison with two other simplified solutions has been performed to verify the more rigorous solutions presented in this paper. Using the developed solutions, a parametric study has also been conducted to investigate the influence of the major parameters of the soil‐pile system on the vertical vibration characteristics of the pile. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of helium and hydrogen in sediments and water on the Sakhalin slope

During the geological survey and prospecting, helium and hydrogen are recognized indicators of minerals, deep-seated faults, seismic activity, and ascending deep fluids. Their anomalous concentrations also serve as a marker of metamorphic processes. Helium survey is applied for tracing deep-seated faults and mapping permeable zones. In this work, the first results of gas geochemical survey in marine sediments and water to study the distribution of helium and hydrogen and their relation with the seismic activity of some geological structures in the southwestern Sea of Okhotsk and northern Sea of Japan. Anomalies of these gases (He up to 60 ppm, H up to 120 ppm) were identified in the hydrate-bearing sediments in the fault zones. It was also found that helium concentrations in the water column of the Tatar Strait are higher than in the studied area of the Sea of Okhotsk, possibly, due to the difference in geological structure and seismotectonic activation. Moreover, coal layers could be a significant source of methane in the gashydrate-bearing layers of the Tatar Strait.