Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Artificial neural network and liquefaction susceptibility assessment: a case study using the 2001 Bhuj earthquake data,Gujarat, India

This study pertains to prediction of liquefaction susceptibility of unconsolidated sediments using artificial neural network (ANN) as a prediction model. The backpropagation neural network was trained, tested, and validated with 23 datasets comprising parameters such as cyclic resistance ratio (CRR), cyclic stress ratio (CSR), liquefaction severity index (LSI), and liquefaction sensitivity index (LSeI). The network was also trained to predict the CRR values from LSI, LSeI, and CSR values. The predicted results were comparable with the field data on CRR and liquefaction severity. Thus, this study indicates the potentiality of the ANN technique in mapping the liquefaction susceptibility of the area.     

Estimation of hydraulic permeability considering the micro morphology of rocks of the borehole YAXCOPOIL-1 (Impact crater Chicxulub,Mexico)

Internal surface, formation factor, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-T2 relaxation times and pore radius distributions were measured on representative core samples for the estimation of hydraulic permeability. Permeability is estimated using various versions of the classic Kozeny–Carman-equation (K–C) and a further development of K–C, the fractal PaRiS-model, taking into account the internal surface. In addition to grain and pore size distribution, directly connected to permeability, internal surface reflects the internal structure (“micro morphology”). Lithologies could be grouped with respect to differences in internal surface. Most melt rich impact breccia lithologies exhibit large internal surfaces, while Tertiary post-impact sediments and Cretaceous lithologies in displaced megablocks display smaller internal surfaces. Investigations with scanning electron microscopy confirm the correlation between internal surface and micro morphology. In addition to different versions of K–C, estimations by means of NMR, pore radius distributions and some gas permeability measurements serve for cross-checking and calibration. In general, the different estimations from the independent methods and the measurements are in satisfactory accordance. For Tertiary limestones and Suevites bulk with very high porosities (up to 35%) permeabilites between 10⁻¹⁴ and 10⁻¹⁶ m² are found, whereas in lower Suevite, Cretaceous anhydrites and dolomites, bulk permeabilites are between 10⁻¹⁵ and 10⁻²³ m².     

Lake bank filtration at Nainital,India: water-quality evaluation

There are different water-supply schemes in Uttarakhand, India to tap the water from streams, rivers and lakes. At Nainital, seven tube-wells (depths 22.6–36.7 m), located at a distance of <100 m from the lake, are being used to abstract (1) lake water after passage through the soil and (2) subsurface water/groundwater flowing towards the lake. Water samples from the lake and tube-wells were analyzed in monsoon and non-monsoon periods from 1997 to 2006. Total dissolved solids, EC, alkalinity and hardness were found to be marginally greater in tube-well waters. The difference in hydrochemistry of tube-well water was mainly due to variation in flow regimes during monsoon and non-monsoon periods. Results clearly indicate that lake water as such is not potable as it contains unacceptable levels of organic matter in terms of COD (~44 mg/L), coliforms (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) and nutrients. Coliform bacteria and COD have not been detected in any of the tube-well water samples over the years. Lake water, treated by sand filters did not conform to drinking water standards. These investigations have led to the closure of the treatment facility and installation of two tube-wells in addition to the existing five tube-wells.

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Résumé  Il existe divers projets d’alimentation en eau dans l’état d’Uttarakhand, Inde, afin de capter l’eau de ruisseaux, de rivières et de lacs. A Nainital, sept puits tubés (profondeur de 22.6–36.7 m), situés à une distance < à 100 m du lac, sont utilisés pour prélever (1) de l’eau du lac après transit à travers le sol et (2) de l’eau de sub-surface/eau souterraine s’écoulant vers le lac. Des échantillons d’eau du lac et des puits tubés ont été analysés en périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson 1997 à 2006. Résidu sec, C.E., alcalinité et dureté ont été trouvés marginalement supérieurs dans l’eau des puits tubés. La différence d’hydrochimie de l’eau des puits tubés était surtout due à la variation des régimes d’écoulement pendant les périodes de mousson et de celles sans mousson. Les résultats indiquent clairement que l’eau du lac en tant que telle n’est pas potable car elle contient des teneurs inacceptables de matière organique en termes de COD (~44 mg/L), de coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ MPN/100 mL) et d’éléments nutritifs. Des bactéries coliformes et du COD n’ont été détectés dans aucun des échantillons d’eau de puits tubés au fil des années. L’eau du lac traitée par des filtres à sable ne se conformait pas aux normes de l’eau potable. Ces recherches ont conduit à la fermeture de l’installation de traitement et à l’implantation de deux puits tubés en plus des cinq puits existants.

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Resumen  En el estado de Uttarakhand, India, existen diferentes esquemas de abastecimiento de agua que explotan agua de arroyos, ríos y lagos. En Nainital, siete pozos (profundidades entre 22.6–36.7 m), ubicados a una distancia de <100 m del lago, se usan para extraer (1) agua del lago luego de su pasaje a través del suelo y (2) agua superficial y subterránea que fluye hacia el lago. En períodos de monzón y de no monzón de 1997 a 2006 se han analizado muestras de agua del lago y de las captaciones. Se halló que el agua de los pozos es ligeramente mayor en términos del total de sólidos disueltos, la conductividad eléctrica, la alcalinidad y la dureza. La diferencia en la hidroquímica del agua de las perforaciones se debe principalmente a la variación de los regímenes de flujo durante los períodos de monzón y de no monzón. Los resultados claramente indican que el agua del lago no es potable por su contenido inaceptable de materia orgánica medida como demanda de carbono orgánico/oxígeno –DCO- (~44 mg/L), coliformes (~15.6 × 10⁴ NMP/100 mL) y nutrientes. En el período, no se han detectado bacterias coliformes ni DCO en las muestras de agua de las captaciones. El agua del lago, tratada con filtros de arena, no conformó los estándares de agua para bebida. Estas investigaciones han demostrado la necesidad de clausurar las instalaciones de tratamiento y la adición de dos captaciones a las cinco ya existentes.

     

Automated Kerogen Classification in Microscope Images of Dispersed Kerogen Preparation

We develop the classification part of a system that analyses transmitted light microscope images of dispersed kerogen preparation. The system automatically extracts kerogen pieces from the image and labels each piece as either inertinite or vitrinite. The image pre-processing analysis consists of background removal, identification of kerogen material, object segmentation, object extraction (individual images of pieces of kerogen) and feature calculation for each object. An expert palynologist was asked to label the objects into categories inertinite and vitrinite, which provided the ground truth for the classification experiment. Ten state-of-the-art classifiers and classifier ensembles were compared: Naïve Bayes, decision tree, nearest neighbour, the logistic classifier, multilayered perceptron (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), AdaBoost, Bagging, LogitBoost and Random Forest. The logistic classifier was singled out as the most accurate classifier, with an accuracy greater than 90. Using a 10 times 10-fold cross-validation provided within the Weka software, we found that the logistic classifier was significantly better than five classifiers (p<0.05) and indistinguishable from the other four classifiers. The initial set of 32 features was subsequently reduced to 6 features without compromising the classification accuracy. A further evaluation of the system alerted us to the possible sensitivity of the classification to the ground truth that might vary from one human expert to another. The analysis also revealed that the logistic classifier made most of the correct classifications with a high certainty.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

The contact binary system YY Eri

Relatively new and unanalysed photometric data-sets of the contact binary system YY Eri are presented. The light curves have been analysed using information limit optimization techniques, and the Binary Maker program of Bradstreet (1992).Comparison of the results allows insight into determinacy questions affecting the W UMa type of light curve, which relates to our general understanding of contact binaries. A limiting contact configuration cannot be ruled out on the basis of empirical data-analysis alone.Very careful analysis of the photospheric flux distribution over the surface of the Sun may help establish appropriate values of the gravity brightening parameter for cool dwarf stars. At present, however, empirical photometric information on contact binaries is non-discriminatory: i.e. alternative cosmogonies can find alternative support from available evidence. The implication is then for more and better observational data to allow better real independent parameter determination.     

Simulation of large-scale gas structures formed in the interaction between galaxies. I. Method and preliminary results

Computer programs developed to study large-scale, transient gas structures in galaxies are described and test results are given. Gas-dynamic quantities are determined on the basis of a three-dimensional algorithm using so-called "smoothed particle hydrodynamics" (SPH). Preliminary calculations were made to simulate the formation of a gas ring around a spheroidal galaxy when it absorbs a low-mass, gas-rich companion, as well due to gas accretion during the flyby of a spiral galaxy of comparable mass. The evolution of tidal gas tails of disk galaxies is investigated.Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 265–284, April–June, 1996.     

Effects of water on strength and failure mode of coarse-grained granites at 300°C

Summary Deformation experiments have been performed in a triaxial compression cell at a temperature of 300°C and confining pressures up to 65 MPa using samples of homogeneous, fresh two-mica-granite (RM) and monzogranite (CM). The cylindrical specimens (d=70 mm, h=140 mm, V=540 cm³) were tested undrained under dry (105°C), as received, and water saturated conditions at deformation rates between and . The mechanical behaviour of the two types of coarse-grained, crystalloblastic granites is critically influenced by mineralogical composition, porosity, and the amount of intergranular water present in the samples. The failure stress of the CM granite is at about 65% of that of the RM granite; in both rocks strength decreases with increasing porosity and water content.The presence of interstitial water causes a failure mode of non-localized, homogeneously distributed microcracking in the central parts of the samples, whereas, in runs with dry granites, strain localization along a single shear fracture was observed. When aqueous fluids are present, the macroscopic style of deformation of granites appears to be ductile even at lowP andT conditions. Strength and angle of internal friction are reduced to very low values. The style of deformation, as well as the reduction of strength of the water-saturated rock samples, is due to mechanical and chemical effects of intergranular water at elevated temperatures.The maximum differential stresses measured for these coarse-grained granites are much lower than the strength commonly reported for other granites, e. g. Westerly and Charcoal granites. Our data suggest that the strength of the granitic crust under differential stress is lower than currently deduced from laboratory experiments.     

Silicate melts at magmatic temperatures: in-situ structure determination to 1651°C and effect of temperature and bulk composition on the mixing behavior of structural units

The abundance of coexisting structural units in K-, Na-, and Li-silicate melts and glasses from 25° to 1654°C has been determined with in-situ micro-Raman spectroscopy. From these data an equilibrium constant, K_x, for the disproportionation reaction among the structural units coexisting in the melts, Si₂O₅(2Q³)SiO₃(Q²)+SiO₂(Q⁴), was calculated (K_x is the equilibrium constant derived by using mol fractions rather than activities of the structural units). From ln K_x vs l/T relationships the enthalpy (H_x) for the disproportionation reaction is in the range of-30 to 30 kJ/mol with systematic compositional dependence. In the potassium and sodium systems, where the disproportionation reaction shifts to the right with increasing temperature, the H_x increases with silica content (M/Si decreases, M=Na, K). For melts and supercooled liquids of composition Li₂O·2SiO₂ (Li/Si=1), the H_x is indistinguishable from 0. By decreasing the Li/Si to 0.667 (composition LS3) and beyond (e.g., LS4), the disproportionation reaction shifts to the left as the temperature is increased. For a given ratio of M/Si (M=K, Na, Li), there is a positive, near linear correlation between the H_x and the Z/r² of the metal cation. The slope of the H_x vs Z/r² regression lines increases as the system becomes more silica rich (i.e., M/Si is decreased). Activity coefficients for the individual structural units, _i, were calculated from the structural data combined with liquidus phase relations. These coefficients are linear functions of their mol fraction of the form _i=a lnX _i+b, where a is between 0.6 and 0.87, and X _i is the mol fraction of the unit. The value of the intercept, b, is near 0. The relationship between activity coefficients and abundance of individual structural units is not affected by temperature or the electronic properties of the alkali metal. The activity of the structural units, however, depend on their concentration, type of metal cation, and on temperature.