Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductile steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame—Part II: Test results and analytical validation

This paper presents the results of a multi‐level pseudo‐dynamic seismic test program that was performed to assess the performance of a full‐scale three‐bay, two‐storey steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame built with partially encased composite columns and partial‐strength beam‐to‐column joints. The system was designed to develop a ductile response in the joint components of beam‐to‐column joints including flexural yielding of beam end plates and shear yielding of the column web panel zone. The ground motion producing the damageability limit state interstorey drift caused minor damage while the ultimate limit state ground motion level entailed column web panel yielding, connection yielding and plastic hinging at the column base connections. The earthquake level chosen to approach the collapse limit state induced more damage and was accompanied by further column web panel yielding, connection yielding and inelastic phenomena at column base connections without local buckling. During the final quasi‐static cyclic test with stepwise increasing displacement–amplitudes up to an interstorey drift angle of 4.6%, the behaviour was ductile although cracking of beam‐to‐end‐plate welds was observed. Correlations with numerical simulations taking into account the inelastic cyclic response of beam‐to‐column and column base joints are also presented in the paper together. Inelastic static pushover and time history analysis procedures are used to estimate the structural behaviour and overstrength factors of the structural system under study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

More on noble gases in Yellowstone National Park hot waters

Water and gas samples from research wells in hydrothermal areas of Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A., have been mass spectrometrically analyzed for their rare gas contents and isotopic composition. In agreement with previous findings, the rare gases have been found to originate from infiltrating run-off water, saturated with air at 10 to 20°C. The atmospheric rare gas retention values found for the water varied between 3 and 87 per cent. The fine structure of the Ar, Kr and Xe abundance pattern in the water reveals fraotionational enrichment of the heavier gases due to partial outgassing of the waters. Radiogenic He and Ar have been detected. No positive evidence for magmatic water contribution has been found. Nevertheless, additions of magmatic waters free of rare gas can not be excluded, but if present the proportion is significantly less than 13 to 36 per cent.     

Sillimanite—disordering enthalpy by calorimetry

Heat of solution measurements in an oxide-melt were performed on samples of natural sillimanite heat-treated in the range 1200–1700°C at pressures of 16–23 kbar. A distinct enthalpy of solution decrement relative to the unheated sillimanite of about 1.3 kc/mole is shown by samples run at 1400–1550°C. Pressure variations in the range 16–23 kbar cause little change in the heat of solution in this temperature range. This pressure-independent ‘plateau’ in heat of solution is interpreted to be due to Al-Si disordering on tetrahedral sites in the sillimanite structure. A simple temperature-dependent disordering model developed by navrotsky and Kleppa (1967) for spinels leads to an Al-Si interchange enthalpy, Δ_Hnt, of16 ± 1 kcal/mole, in good agreement with the value derived by Holdaway(1971) on entirely different grounds.Above 1550°C, larger heat of solution decrements were observed. Microprobe analyses of quenched samples indicate that the sillimanite has not deviated significantly from the ideal formula. Some unknown profound disordering process may account for the heat effects in the very high temperature range.Unit cell volumes of quenched samples also describe a ‘plateau’ region in the temperature range 1400–1550°C. This plateau consists of an increase of the 6 crystallographic axis beginning at 1350°C without much change in the other axes in the range 1350–1550°C. A sudden expansion of the α-axis occurs between 1550 and 1630°C.We conclude that Al-Si disorder of the type postulated by Beger et al. (1970), and Holdaway (1971) has been confirmed calorimetrically for samples heated under pressure in the temperature range 1400–1550°C.     

Buchbesprechungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.     

A note on the equatorial anticyclogenesis

Summary The formative stage of low-latitude anticyclones is studied in terms of the simplified divergence theorem and vorticity equation.     

The rapid variability of blazars at optical wavelengths

We monitored five active galactic nuclei in the R optical band with a CCD mounted on the 1-m Zeiss-1000 telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory from April 2001 to August 2003. Three sources displayed intraday variability on several nights. Stronger variability was detected on time scales from two days to a week. The two-year light curves are presented for four of the observed objects.