Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

Constraints of Housing Age and Migration on Residential Mobility

This paper investigates the role of housing age in constraining residential mobility, measured as the percent of households that have moved into their homes in the past 15 months. The leading explanation for why mobility rates differ so much among regions of the United States has been the overall level of growth. The present analysis shows that the growth effect operates through both the newness of population (migration) and the newness of housing available for occupancy by all local residents. The posited explanation for this housing age effect is that progressively older units contain increasingly settled occupants, yielding fewer opportunities for in-movers in areas with older housing. It is empirically demonstrated that households in older housing have lower likelihood of recent mobility even after controlling for age, tenure, migration status, and state location of residence. The analysis reveals the temporal interdependency of mobility, migration, person age, and housing age.     

Cosmic microwave background polarization due to scattering in clusters

Scattering of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) in clusters of galaxies polarizes the radiation. We explore several polarization components which have their origin in the kinematic quadrupole moments induced by the motion of the scattering electrons, either directed or random. Polarization levels and patterns are determined in a cluster simulated by the hydrodynamical enzo code. We find that polarization signals can be as high as  ∼1 μK  , a level that may be detectable by upcoming CMB experiments.     

APEX-SZ a Sunyaev–Zel’dovich galaxy cluster survey

The APEX-SZ experiment is a sky survey designed to discover galaxy clusters via the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect at millimeter wavelengths. We describe the components of the instrument, including the 12 m Atacama Pathfinder Experiment telescope, optics, Transition-edge sensor bolometer array and SQUID readout. APEX-SZ will begin observations in 2004.     

Spectrum measurements of the sun near 1 cm wavelength

The solar brightness temperature was measured at frequencies of 19.0, 21.0, 22.2, 23.5, and 25.5 GHz on 8 days in February and March, 1966. The observed average brightness temperatures were 10 800, 10 900, 11 000, 10 700, and 9 800°K, respectively. The daily values were close to these averages.Presently at the University of Maryland.