Catastrophic precipitation‐triggered lahar at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: occurrence,bulking and transformation

A catastrophic lahar began on 30 October 1998, as hurricane precipitation triggered a small ?ank collapse of Casita volcano, a complex and probably dormant stratovolcano. The initial rockslide‐debris avalanche evolved on the ?ank to yield a watery debris ?ood with a sediment concentration less than 60 per cent by volume at the base of the volcano. Within 2·5 km, however, the watery ?ow entrained (bulked) enough sediment to transform entirely to a debris ?ow. The debris ?ow, 6 km downstream and 1·2 km wide and 3 to 6 m deep, killed 2500 people, nearly the entire populations of the communities of El Porvenir and Rolando Rodriguez. These ‘new towns’ were developed in a prehistoric lahar pathway: at least three ?ows of similar size since 8330 ¹⁴C years bp are documented by stratigraphy in the same 30‐degree sector. Travel time between perception of the ?ow and destruction of the towns was only 2·5–3·0 minutes. The evolution of the ?ow wave occurred with hydraulic continuity and without pause or any extraordinary addition of water. The precipitation trigger of the Casita lahar emphasizes the need, in volcano hazard assessments, for including the potential for non‐eruption‐related collapse lahars with the more predictable potential of their syneruption analogues. The ?ow behaviour emphasizes that volcano collapses can yield not only volcanic debris avalanches with restricted runouts, but also mobile lahars that enlarge by bulking as they ?ow. Volumes and hence inundation areas of collapse‐runout lahars can increase greatly beyond their sources: the volume of the Casita lahar bulked to at least 2·6 times the contributing volume of the ?ank collapse and 4·2 times that of the debris ?ood. At least 78 per cent of the debris ?ow matrix (sediment < ?1·0Φ; 2 mm) was entrained during ?ow. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gulf of Mexico hydrocarbon seep communities: VI. Patterns in community structure and habitat

Communities of chemosynthetic fauna that depend on seeping oil and gas have been found in the Gulf of Mexico at approximately 45 sites between 88°W and 95°W and between the 350 and 2,200 m isobaths. Investigations suggest that the number of sites and the range of occurrence will increase with additional exploration. The dominant fauna consist of species within four groups: tube worms, seep mussels, epibenthic clams, and infaunal clams. These species co-occur to some degree, but tend to form assemblages dominated by a single group. Community development is closely coupled to the geological and geochemical processes of seepage.     

Paper 2. agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region

The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williamset al. (1984), modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO₂ enrichment, was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate, and absent CO₂ enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm), production of corn, sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies, combined with CO₂ enrichment, eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments, plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate, when combined with CO₂ enrichment, converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect, if any, would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO₂ enrichment, animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate.     

The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and its implication on agricultural productivity

The increasing concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere should result in a general increase in the net primary productivity of most cultivated species and forest species, assuming no counterproductive climatic changes occur. The photosynthetic rate of C₃ plants is most responsive to increasing concentration of CO₂ in the ambient air. C₄ plants demonstrate a stomatal closure that causes reduced transpiration. In the case of both types of plants, the water use efficiency (photosynthesis/transpiration) is likely to be improved.It has been suggested that photosynthetic production may be limited today more by shortages of water and nutrients than by shortages of carbon dioxide. The author speculates that the inadvertant CO₂-fertilization now occurring could, in itself, cause a moderate release from these constraints.Physiological responses to an increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration are easily demonstrated in controlled environment studies. Because of the difficulty in maintaining artifically enriched air near the crop against the forces of turbulent transfer, studies in the open field have been inconclusive. The observation of decreased photosynthetic rate in a perennial crop during that part of the growing season when CO₂ concentration is naturally low suggests a technique by which it may be possible to infer what will happen in the real world of agricultural fields if a CO₂-rich environment, such as is predicted in the coming decades, materializes. Inferences from the very limited set of data available support the view that net photosynthetic production will be increased.Published as Paper No. 6123, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported was conducted under Regional Research Project 11–33 and Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 1149.George Holmes Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Sources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, U.S.A.     

Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model

Abstract

A simplified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in GCMs, is presented. This parameterization is based on a plume ensemble concept similar to that originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert (1974). However, it employs three assumptions which significantly simplify the formulation and implementation of the scheme. It is assumed that an ensemble of convective‐scale updrafts with associated saturated downdrafts may exist when the atmosphere is locally conditionally unstable in the lower troposphere. However, the updraft ensemble is comprised only of those plumes which are sufficiently buoyant to penetrate through this unstable layer. It is assumed that all such plumes have the same upward mass flux at the base of the convective layer. The third assumption is that moist convection, which occurs only when there is convective available potential energy (CAPE) for reversible ascent of an undiluted parcel from the sub‐cloud layer, acts to remove CAPE at an exponential rate with a specified adjustment time scale.

The performance of the scheme and its sensitivity to choices of disposable parameters is illustrated by presenting results from a series of idealized single‐column model tests. These tests demonstrate that the scheme permits establishment of a quasi‐equilibrium between large‐scale forcing and convective response. However, it is also shown that the strength of convective downdrafts is an important factor in determining the nature of the equilibrium state. Relatively strong down‐drafts give rise to an unsteady irregularly fluctuating state characterized by alternate periods of deep and shallow convection.

The effect of using the scheme for GCM climate simulations is illustrated by presenting selected results of a multi‐year simulation carried out with the Canadian Climate Centre GCM using the new parameterization (the CONV simulation). Comparison of these results with those for a climate simulation made with the standard model (the CONTROL simulation, as documented by McFarlane et al., 1992) reveals the importance of other parameterized processes in determining the ultimate effect of introducing the new convective scheme. The radiative response to changes in the cloudiness regime is particularly important in this regard.     

Direct observation of adakite melts generated in the lower continental crust, Fiordland, New Zealand

Adakites have a distinct chemistry that links them to melting of a mafic source at high pressure. They have been attributed to melting of subducted oceanic crust or melting of the mafic crustal roots of thick continental arcs, and are an important contrast to mantle wedge melting as a means of generating continental crust. We report the first direct evidence for the generation of adakitic melts in mafic lower continental crust, in an exhumed Cretaceous arc in the South Island of New Zealand. The lower crustal Pembroke Granulite has the bulk chemistry and partial melting textures involving peritectic garnet appropriate for a source region for an adakitic melt. The melt migrated from the area through a fracture network now filled with trondhjemitic veins. Emplacement of the melt was in the upper crust of the Cretaceous section, illustrated by the presence of coeval adakites in the upper crustal Nelson-Westland region.     

Preparation of a Synthetic Titanite Glass Calibration Material for In Situ Microanalysis by Direct Fusion in Graphite Electrodes: A Preliminary Characterisation by EPMA and LA-ICP-MS

This paper describes a technique for the preparation of a titanite (CaTiSiO₅) glass calibration material for use in in situ microanalysis of major, minor, and trace elements in geological materials. The starting composition was a titanite matrix doped with minor and trace elements at ∼ 200 μg g^-1. The elements Sc, Y, REEs, Th and U were added in the form of nitrates in solution, and the elements V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zr, Nb, Hf and W were added as solid oxides. The synthetic titanite glass was produced by direct fusion by resistance heating in graphite electrodes at 1600-1700 °C, and quenched in air. Backscattered electron images indicate good homogeneity, with no signs of separate phases or vesicles, and analysis of the major elements Ca, Ti and Si by electron microprobe showed relative standard deviations between 0.5 and 0.7%, based on six independent measurements. Deviations from nominal concentrations for Ca, Si and Ti were measured to -1.2, -3.3 and -0.8%, respectively. The homogeneity of the trace elements in the glass was assessed by LA-ICP-MS analyses, using NIST SRM 610, 612 and 616 as external calibrators, and Ca as the internal standard element. Determinations were made both with a quadrupole mass spectrometer and a sector field instrument, and both raster and spot modes of analysis were used. For the majority of doped elements, precision was better than 10%, and relative deviations from nominal values were, with few exceptions, between 5 and 10%.     

Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

To improve simulations of regional‐scale snow processes and related cold‐season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth‐generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land‐surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land‐surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow‐season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near‐surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over‐predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5–CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the longer snow duration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polysynthetic feldspar twin-width distributions: Models for inversion twinning

The lamella-width distribution of the transformation polysynthetic twins produced in volcanic anorthoclases during cooling reflects certain aspects of twin nucleation and growth kinetics. An analysis of simple hypothetical statistical models for the kinetics of the transformation process outlines the range and type of twin-width distributions possible. The general characteristics of these distributions, particularly at small twin widths, are sensitive to whether twin boundaries or twin centers nucleate. The rates of twin nucleation and growth during transformation also influence the general form, particularly the skewness, of the final twin-width distribution. The generally exponential nature of the upper tails to the distributions studied is apparently quite insensitive to kinetic details.