Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE MEIYU/BAIU RAIN BELT AND THE PERIODIC NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC

In order to investigate the effect of the factors in tower latitudes on Meiyu/Baiu front,adiagnostic analysis for the two cases during June to July of 1985 and 1986 was examined.We foundthat (1)when the tropical convective activity moves westward to 10.5-15.5′N/140°E from eastside of 10.5-15.5°N/160°E,the northward shifts of the Meiyu/Baiu rain belt occurs;(2)themain factor which results in the northward and southward shifts of Meiyu/Baiu rain belt is thoughtas the 8,18 and 30 day oscillations of the tropical convective activity around West Pacific.Meanwhile,the wave train propagating from Lake Baikal via Okhotsk Sea to the tropics couldsometimes shift Baiu rain belt southward;(3)the onsets of Meiyu in China of both cases tend totake place just when the convective activity around lower latitudes moves westward through about140°E with the 8,18 and 30 day oscillation periods firstly coming to June.     

Crustal structure in and around the region of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake deduced from a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration

Abstract The 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake (M_JMA 7.2, M_w 6.9) occurred on Jan. 17, 1995, at a depth of 17 km, beneath the areas of southern part of Hyogo prefecture and Awaji Island. To investigate P-wave velocity distribution and seismological characteristics in the aftershock area of this great earthquake, a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration was carried out by the Research Group for Explosion Seismology (RGES) . The profile including 6 shot points and 205 observations was 135 km in length, extending from Keihoku, Northern Kyoto prefecture, through Kobe, to Seidan on Awaji Island. The charge of each shot was 350–700 kg. The P-wave velocity structure model showed a complicated sedimentary layer which is shallower than 2.5 km, a 2.5 km-thick basement layer whose velocity is 5.5 km/s, overlying the crystalline upper crust, and the boundary between the upper and lower crust.
Almost all aftershock hypocenters were located in the upper crust. However, the structure model suggests that the hypocenters of the main shock and some aftershock clusters were situated deeper than the boundary between the upper and lower crust. We found that the P-velocity in the upper crust beneath the northern part of Awaji Island is 5.64 km/s which is 3% lower than that of the surrounding area. The low-velocity zone coincides with the region where the high stress moment release was observed.     

Effect of earthquake ground motions on fragility curves of highway bridge piers based on numerical simulation

Fragility curves express the probability of structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices, e.g., PGA, PGV. Based on the actual damage data of highway bridges from the 1995 Hyogoken‐Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, a set of empirical fragility curves was constructed. However, the type of structure, structural performance (static and dynamic) and variation of input ground motion were not considered to construct the empirical fragility curves. In this study, an analytical approach was adopted to construct fragility curves for highway bridge piers of specific bridges. A typical bridge structure was considered and its piers were designed according to the seismic design codes in Japan. Using the strong motion records from Japan and the United States, non‐linear dynamic response analyses were performed, and the damage indices for the bridge piers were obtained. Using the damage indices and ground motion indices, fragility curves for the bridge piers were constructed assuming a lognormal distribution. The analytical fragility curves were compared with the empirical ones. The proposed approach may be used in constructing the fragility curves for highway bridge structures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of observed and theoretically calculated seiches of Heda Bay,Japan

We carried out observations of sea-level fluctuations simultaneously at three stations on the coast of Heda Bay, Honshu, Japan, using supersonic-type water level gauges controlled by a personal computer. Analyses of the obtained data showed predominant spectral peaks at periods of 7.6, 2.0 and 1.3 minutes for all three stations. Comparison of the observed data with numerically calculated normal oscillation modes of the bay indicates that these three spectral peaks correspond to the theoretical first, third and seventh normal modes of the basin respectively, judging from the results of cross-spectral analyses. The reason for the absence of the remaining normal modes, especially of the second or the lateral first mode of the basin, is briefly considered.     

Soil amplification based on seismometer array and microtremor observations in Chiba,Japan

Soil amplification characteristics of earthquake ground motion were investigated in terms of peak ground acceleration and transfer function based on the Chiba array observation records. The amplification of peak ground acceleration occurred mostly at the top soft layer and was similar for the three components. The effects of non-linear response of soil deposits on the transfer function were examined. Transfer functions calculated by ensemble average were close for the two horizontal components while those obtained from a smoothing operation were generally different. Both the transfer functions from the ensemble average and the smoothing operation underestimated the gain factor around the natural frequencies. A two-step smoothing procedure was proposed and a rotary spectrum was used to improve the estimation of the transfer function. Microtremors were observed at the locations of the boreholes where seismometers are buried. The power spectrum and spatial coherency of the microtremors were compared with those of the earthquake ground motion. Emphasis was placed on the wavetypes which dominated the peaks in the power spectra.     

Orientation error estimation of buried seismographs in array observation

Array observation is an efficient tool to investigate various characteristics of earthquake ground motion. However, seismographs used in arrays may involve unexpected errors in their orientations. Methods of orientation error estimation were developed in three-dimensional space by comparing recorded ground motions at a reference point with those at a checking point. A maximum cross-correlation method and a maximum coherence method were proposed and their accuracy was demonstrated. The earthquake ground motions recorded in the Chiba array and in two other arrays were used in numerical examples. Non-trivial orientation errors were detected for all these arrays. The cross-correlation coefficients and the coherence values between two points increased significantly by correcting the estimated orientation errors.     

A study of subsolidus relations of the Skaergaard pyroxenes by analytical electron microscopy

Within augite and pigeonite grains of the Skaergaard ferrogabbro 4430, the Ca-poor phases contain only three mole percent of CaSiO₃, and the Mg-Fe partition coefficients between the Ca-poor and Ca-rich phases are extremely small with 0.46 for augite and 0.51 for pigeonite grains. These values indicate existence of diffusion within each grain (intragranular diffusion) at considerably low temperatures.The compositions are slightly but definitely different between the Ca-rich phases in augite and pigeonite grains as well as between the Ca-poor phases in augite and pigeonite grains. This indicates that the diffusion among the grains (inter-granular diffusion) has not taken place under the subsolidus condition of the Skaergaard intrusion.     

Air-sea interaction studies at the station occupied by R/V Sirius

The transfer formulas are used to compute hourly values of sensible and latent heat exchanges for the period July 29 to July 31, 1974. Also, values of eddy shearing stress at the sea surface, Bowen's ratio and dissipation of kinetic energy are computed. The data used cover part of the GATE period for station 20 occupied by the Brazilian Naval Ship R/V Sirius in the Equatorial Atlantic (0730 N 4000 W). The variations in the computed values are studied in relation to rainfall and the synoptic situation.