Estimating sublimation of intercepted and sub‐canopy snow using eddy covariance systems

Direct measurements of winter water loss due to sublimation were made in a sub‐alpine forest in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Above‐and below‐canopy eddy covariance systems indicated substantial losses of winter‐season snow accumulation in the form of snowpack (0·41 mm d^?1) and intercepted snow (0·71 mm d^?1) sublimation. The partitioning between these over and under story components of water loss was highly dependent on atmospheric conditions and near‐surface conditions at and below the snow/atmosphere interface. High above‐canopy sensible heat fluxes lead to strong temperature gradients between vegetation and the snow‐surface, driving substantial specific humidity gradients at the snow surface and high sublimation rates. Intercepted snowfall resulted in rapid response of above‐canopy latent heat fluxes, high within‐canopy sublimation rates (maximum = 3·7 mm d^?1), and diminished sub‐canopy snowpack sublimation. These results indicate that sublimation losses from the sub‐canopy snowpack are strongly dependent on the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes in the canopy. This compels comprehensive studies of snow sublimation in forested regions that integrate sub‐canopy and over‐story processes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling

We explore the use of high-resolution dynamical downscaling as a means to simulate the regional climatology and variability of hazardous convective-scale weather. Our basic approach differs from a traditional regional climate model application in that it involves a sequence of daily integrations. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, with global reanalysis data as initial and boundary conditions. Horizontal grid lengths of 4.25?km allow for explicit representation of deep convective storms and hence a compilation of their occurrence statistics over a large portion of the conterminous United States. The resultant 10-year sequence of WRF model integrations yields precipitation that, despite its positive bias, has a diurnal cycle consistent with observations, and otherwise has a realistic geographical distribution. Similarly, the occurrence frequency of short-duration, potentially flooding rainfall compares well to analyses of hourly rain gauge data. Finally, the climatological distribution of hazardous-thunderstorm occurrence is shown to be represented with some degree of skill through a model proxy that relates rotating convective updraft cores to the presence of hail, damaging surface winds, and tornadoes. The results suggest that the proxy occurrences, when coupled with information on the larger-scale atmosphere, could provide guidance on the reliability of trends in the observed occurrences.     

Hydroclimatic flood trends in the northeastern United States and linkages with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract

We evaluate flood magnitude and frequency trends across the Mid-Atlantic USA at stream gauges selected for long record lengths and climate sensitivity, and find field significant increases. Fifty-three of 75 study gauges show upward trends in annual flood magnitude, with 12 showing increases at p < 0.05. We investigate trends in flood frequency using partial duration series data and document upward trends at 75% of gauges, with 27% increasing at p < 0.05. Many study gauges show evidence for step increases in flood magnitude and/or frequency around 1970. Expanding our study area to include New England, we find evidence for lagged positive relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation phase and flood magnitude and frequency. Our results suggest hydroclimatic changes in regional flood response that are related to a combination of factors, including cyclic atmospheric variability and secular trends related to climate warming affecting both antecedent conditions and event-scale processes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins     

Surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow from a mesoscale watershed in complex mountain terrain

An understanding of surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow is essential for accurate predictions of water supply from mountain watersheds that often serve as water towers for downstream communities. As such, this study used the end‐member mixing analysis technique to investigate source water contributions and hydrologic flow paths of the 264 km² Boulder Creek Watershed, which drains the Colorado Front Range, USA. Four conservative hydrochemical tracers were used to describe this watershed as a 3 end‐member system, and tracer concentration reconstruction suggested that the application of end‐member mixing analysis was robust. On average from 2009 to 2011, snowmelt and rainwater from the subalpine zone and groundwater sampled from the upper montane zone contributed 54%, 22%, and 24% of the annual streamflow, respectively. These values demonstrate increased rainwater and decreased snow water contributions to streamflow relative to area‐weighted mean values derived from previous work at the headwater scale. Young water (2.3 ± 0.8 months) fractions of streamflow decreased from 18–22% in the alpine catchment to 8–10% in the lower elevation catchments and the watershed outlet with implications for subsurface storage and hydrological connectivity. These results contribute to a process‐based understanding of the seasonal source water composition of a mesoscale watershed that can be used to extrapolate headwater streamflow generation predictions to larger spatial scales.     

Future land cover and climate may drive decreases in snow wind-scour and transpiration,increasing streamflow at a Colorado,USA headwater catchment

Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km² headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.     

Snowfall interception in a deciduous Nothofagus forest and implications for spatial snowpack distribution

Native Nothofagus forests in the midlatitude region of the Andes Cordillera are notorious biodiversity hot spots, uniquely situated in the Southern Hemisphere such that they develop in snow‐dominated reaches of this mountain range. Spanning a smaller surface area than similar ecosystems, where forests and snow coexist in the Northern Hemisphere, the interaction between vegetation and snow processes in this ecotone has received lesser attention. We present the first systematic study of snow–vegetation interactions in the Nothofagus forests of the Southern Andes, focusing on how the interplay between interception and climate determines patterns of snow water equivalent (SWE) variability. The Valle Hermoso experimental catchment, located in the Nevados de Chillán vicinity, was fitted with eight snow depth sensors that provided continuous measurements at varying elevations, aspect, and forest cover. Also, manual measurements of snow properties were obtained during snow surveys conducted during end of winter and spring seasons for 3 years, between 2015 and 2017. Each year was characterized by distinct climatological conditions, with 2016 representing one of the driest winters on record in this region. Distance to canopy, leaf area index, and total gap area were measured at each observational site. A regression model was built on the basis of statistical analysis of local parameters to model snow interception in this kind of forest. We find that interception implied a 23.2% reduction in snow accumulation in forested sites compared with clearings. The interception in these deciduous trees represents, on average, 23.6% of total annual snowfall, reaching a maximum measured interception value of 13.8‐mm SWE for all snowfall events analysed in this research.     

How does DEM resolution affect microtopographic characteristics,hydrologic connectivity,and modelling of hydrologic processes?

The resolution of a digital elevation model (DEM) is a crucial factor in watershed hydrologic and environmental modelling. DEM resolution can cause significant variability in the representation of surface topography, which further affects quantification of hydrologic connectivity and simulation of hydrologic processes. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of DEM resolution on (1) surface microtopographic characteristics, (2) hydrologic connectivity, and (3) the spatial and temporal variations of hydrologic processes. A puddle‐to‐puddle modelling system was utilized for surface delineation and modelling of the puddle‐to‐puddle overland flow dynamics, surface runoff, infiltration, and unsaturated flow for nine DEM resolution scenarios of a field plot surface. Comparisons of the nine modelling scenarios demonstrated that coarser DEM resolutions tended to eliminate topographic features, reduce surface depression storage, and strengthen hydrologic connectivity and surface runoff. We found that reduction in maximum depression storage and maximum ponding area was as high as 97.56% and 76.36%, respectively, as the DEM grid size increased from 2 to 80 cm. The paired t‐test and fractal analysis demonstrated the existence of a threshold DEM resolution (10 cm for the field plot), within which the DEM‐based hydrologic modelling was effective and acceptable. The effects of DEM resolution were further evaluated for a larger surface in the Prairie Pothole Region subjected to observed rainfall events. It was found that simulations based on coarser resolution DEMs (>10 m) tended to overestimate ponded areas and underestimate runoff discharge peaks. The simulated peak discharge from the Prairie Pothole Region surface reduced by approximately 50% as the DEM resolution changed from 2 to 90 m. Fractal analysis results elucidated scale dependency of hydrologic and topographic processes. In particular, scale analysis highlighted a unique constant–threshold–power relationship between DEM scale and topographic and hydrologic parameters/variables. Not only does this finding allow one to identify threshold DEM but also further develop functional relationships for scaling to achieve valid topographic characterization as well as effective and efficient hydrologic modelling. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

U‐Pb Geochronological and Thermochronological Time–Temperature Constraints of 40Ar/39Ar Hornblende Reference Material HB3gr

Hornblende from the Lone Grove Pluton, Llano Uplift, Texas, has served as an irradiation reference material in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies for decades. In order to evaluate the apparent age bias that currently exists between the U‐Pb and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar systems, zircon and titanite were dated by isotope dilution‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (ID‐TIMS) from the same rock from which the hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar reference material HB3gr is derived. Zircon U‐Pb data indicate initial crystallisation at 1090.10 ± 0.16 Ma (2s), a date that is 1.7% older than the accepted K‐Ar date (1072 ± 14 Ma, 2s) for HB3gr; an offset that exceeds the typical 0.5–1% bias between the two systems, though remaining within uncertainty due to the large uncertainties in the ⁴⁰K decay constant. Zircon data are presented using both EARTHTIME tracers ET535 and ET2535 and are statistically indistinguishable. Single grain titanite analyses range between 1082 ± 0.75 and 1086 ± 0.81 Ma (2s) and are interpreted to record the subsequent cooling following crystallisation at rates between 30 and 50 °C Ma^?1. This is supported by the observation that hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates corrected for decay constant bias are resolvably younger than the zircon U‐Pb date and in good agreement with titanite U‐Pb dates, permitting the conclusion that both titanite U‐Pb and hornblende ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar systems provide a record of cooling.     

Photo's from Proceedings of the Third MicroQuasar Workshop; Granada Worshop on Galactic Relativistic Jet Sources – Granada,Spain, 11–13 September 2000

The X-Ray Spectroscopic Explorer (XRASE) has a unique combination of features that will make it possible to address many of NASA's scientific goals. These include how galaxy clusters form, the physics and chemistry of the ISM, the heating of stellar coronae, the amount and content of intergalactic baryonic matter, the mass of black holes and the formation of disks and jets in AGN and galactic binaries. XRASE has a thin foil, multilayered telescope with a large collecting area up to 10 keV, especially in the Fe K region (1100 cm²). Its microcalorimeter array combines high energy resolution (7 eV at 6 keV) and efficiency with a field-of-view of 26 arcmin² . A deep orbit allows for long, continuous observations. Monitoring instruments in the optical (WOM-X), UV (TAUVEX) and hard X-RAY (GRAM) bands will offer exceptional opportunities to make simultaneous multi-wavelength observations.