A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Microwave remote sensing of sea ice in the AIDJEX Main Experiment

During the AIDJEX Main Experiment, April 1975 through May 1976, a comprehensive microwave sensing program was performed on the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Surface and aircraft measurements were obtained during all seasons using a wide variety of active and passive microwave sensors. The surface program obtained passive microwave measurements of various ice types using four antennas mounted on a tracked vehicle. In three test regions, each with an area of approximately 1.5 × 10⁴ m², detailed ice crystallographic, dielectric properties, and brightness temperatures of first-year, multiyear, and first-year/multiyear mixtures were measured. A NASA aircraft obtained passive microwave measurements of the entire area of the AIDJEX manned station array (triangle) during each of 18 flights. This verified the earlier reported ability to distinguish first-year and multiyear ice types and concentration and gave new information on ways to observe ice mixtures and thin ice types. The active microwave measurements from aircraft included those from an X- and L-band radar and from a scatterometer. The former is used to study a wide variety of ice features and to estimate deformations, while both are equally usable to observe ice types. With the present data, only the scatterometer can be used to distinguish positively multiyear from first-year and various types of thin ice. This is best done using coupled active and passive microwave sensing.We dedicate this work to our beloved friend William NordbergHe pioneered in microwave ice observations, and his brilliance and enthusiasm inspired all of us.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.     

Characterization and quantification of data voids in the shuttle Radar topography mission data

The goal of this study was to characterize and quantify the occurrence of data voids in data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for the conterminous United States. For this purpose, SRTM data and corresponding data from the national elevation data were downloaded in 21 samples spatially organized to cover the main topography of the U.S. Void locations in SRTM data were compared to terrain attributes and subsequently the area of individual data voids to the same attributes. It was found that data voids amounted to 0.3% of the total dataset. Data voids were found in all topographic settings but more often in slopes steeper than approximately 20/spl deg/ that face south (170/spl deg/), and also in flat areas such as lakes and rivers. It was also found that more than 50% of all data voids were composed of connected pixels in groups less than six pixels. The largest data voids could be attributed to water bodies, while the rest could be explained by terrain-radar interaction characteristics.     

The physical properties of quartz-micaschist and their application to freeze-thaw weathering studies in the maritime antarctic

As part of a study on freeze-thaw weathering in the maritime Antarctic an investigation was made of the physical properties of the local rock. Tests were made of point-load compressive strength, Schmidt hammer in situ rock strength, moisture content, indentor resistance and the size range of weathering products. The resulting data were used to consider the form of freeze-thaw weathering operative in the field and its relationship to laboratory simulations. A distinct difference between ‘massive rock’ and ‘intact rock’ is observed in the field. It is suggested that future studies should generate a greater database pertaining to rock properties as it is an invaluable aid in the study of mechanical weathering.     

Dissolved and particulate trace metals in a Scottish sea loch: an example of a pristine environment?

In the near pristine environment of a silled fjord on the west coast of Scotland samples were taken for the determination of dissolved and particulate trace metals (Fe, Mn, Cu, Ni, Cd, Zn and Pb), together with nutrient and hydrographic data, during 19 surveys carried out over a year. An indication of the pristine nature of the environment are the low concentrations of dissolved silicon, phosphate and nitrate which are considerably lower than those of coastal waters which are subject to larger anthropogenic burdens. Distributions of dissolved Cu, Ni and Cd were found to broadly reflect conservative mixing of freshwater and seawater with both end members having similar concentrations. The concentration of dissolved Cu and Ni in seawater entering upper Loch Linnhe (Cu 0.28 μg l⁻¹; Ni 0.26 μg l⁻¹) was consistent with the 1:1 conservative mix of Irish Sea water and North Atlantic surface water predicted from radio-caesium tracer experiments (Mackay & Baxter, 1985). Atmospheric input of trace metals to upper Loch Linnhe appeared to be a relatively minor term in the mass balance relative to fluvial inputs. Values of distribution coefficients Kd were similar to those previously reported for the coastal environment. Iron showed the strongest affinity for the suspended sediments; with particulate percentages of the total load usually greater than 80%. Lead and Mn showed a similar strong affinity to the particle phase. For Cu, Ni and Zn the mass of the element in the dissolved phase was generally greater than that in the particulate fraction. Cadmium, was least associated with the particles, with typically greater than 90% existing in the dissolved phase.     

Evaluating Quaternary dating methods: Radiocarbon,U-series,luminescence, and amino acid racemization dates of a late Pleistocene emu egg

A whole emu egg, with infilling sediment believed to be coeval with egg laying and burial, was found in late Pleistocene lunette sediments near Lake Eyre, central Australia. The stratigraphic context and initial amino acid racemization (AAR) results suggested an age between 25 ka and 35 ka, ideal for a multiple cross-dating comparison. The sediment infilling the egg provided material for luminescence dating that minimized problems of association. Age estimations from AAR, ¹⁴C and U series methods were obtained from the eggshell and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the infilling sediment. All methods agreed within their respective dating uncertainties confirming the utility of all four methods. They indicate an age for the emu egg of 31.24 ± 0.34 ka.