Joint inversion of temperature,vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite with examples from the eastern North Sea area

As sediment accumulation indicates basin subsidence, erosion often is understood as tectonic uplift, but the amplitude and timing may be difficult to determine because the sedimentary record is missing. Quantification of erosion therefore requires indirect evidence, for example thermal indicators such as temperature, vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite. However, as always, the types and quality of data and the choice of models are important to the results. For example, considering only the thermal evolution of the sedimentary section discards the thermal time constant of the lithosphere and essentially ignores the temporal continuity of the thermal structure. Furthermore, the types and density of thermal indicators determine the solution space of deposition and erosion, the quantification of which calls for the use of inverse methods, which can only be successful when all models are mutually consistent. Here, we use integrated basin modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of four deep boreholes to show that the erosional pattern along the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea is consistent with a tectonic model of tectonic inversion based on compression and relaxation of an elastic plate. Three wells in close proximity SW of the STZ have different data and exhibit characteristic differences in erosion estimates but are consistent with the formation of a thick chalk sequence, followed by minor Cenozoic erosion during relaxation inversion. The well on the inversion ridge requires ca. 1.7 km Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sedimentation followed by Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene erosion during inversion. No well demands thick Cenozoic sedimentation followed by equivalent significant Neogene exhumation. When data are of high quality and models are consistent, the thermal indicator method yields significant results with important tectonic and geodynamic implications.     

Background simulations for the Large Area Detector onboard LOFT

The Large Observatory For X-ray Timing (LOFT), currently in an assessment phase in the framework the ESA M3 Cosmic Vision programme, is an innovative medium-class mission specifically designed to answer fundamental questions about the behaviour of matter, in the very strong gravitational and magnetic fields around compact objects and in supranuclear density conditions. Having an effective area of ～10 m² at 8 keV, LOFT will be able to measure with high sensitivity very fast variability in the X-ray fluxes and spectra. A good knowledge of the in-orbit background environment is essential to assess the scientific performance of the mission and optimize the design of its main instrument, the Large Area Detector (LAD). In this paper the results of an extensive Geant-4 simulation of the instrumentwillbe discussed, showing the main contributions to the background and the design solutions for its reduction and control. Our results show that the current LOFT/LAD design is expected to meet its scientific requirement of a background rate equivalent to 10 mCrab in 2?30 keV, achieving about 5 mCrab in the most important 2–10 keV energy band. Moreover, simulations show an anticipated modulation of the background rate as small as 10 % over the orbital timescale. The intrinsic photonic origin of the largest background component also allows for an efficient modelling, supported by an in-flight active monitoring, allowing to predict systematic residuals significantly better than the requirement of 1 %, and actually meeting the 0.25 % science goal.     

The Greenland ice sheet and greenhouse warming

Increased melting on glaciers and ice sheets and rising sea level are often mentioned as important aspects of the anticipated greenhouse warming of the earth's atmosphere. This paper deals with the sensitivity of Greenland's ice mass budget and presents a tentative projection of the Greenland component of future sea level rise for the next few hundred years. To do this, the ‘Villach II temperature scenario’ is prescribed,output from a comprehensive mass balance model is used to drive a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet.The mass balance model consists of two parts: the accumulation part is based on presently observed values and is forced by changes in mean anr tempeerature. The ablation model is based on the degree-day method and accounts for daily and annual temperature cycle, a different degree-day factor for ice and snow melting and superimposed ice formation. Under present-day climatic conditions, the following total mass balance results (in ice equivalent per years): 599.3 × 10⁹ m³ of accumulation, 281.7 × 10⁹m³ of runoff assuming a balanced budget, 317.6 × 10⁹m³ of iceberg calving. A 1K uniform warming is then calculated to increase the runoff by 119.5 × 10⁹ m³. Since accumulation also increases by 32 × 10⁹ m³, this leads to reduction of the total mass balance by 887.5 × 10⁹ m³ of ice, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.22 mm/yr. For temperature increase larger than 2.7 K, runoff, exceeds accumulation, and if ice sheet dynamics were to remain unchanged, this would add an extra amount of 0.8 mmyr to the worl's oceans.Imposing the Villach II scenario (warming up to 4.23 K) and accumulating mass balance changes forward in time (static response) would then result in a global sea level rise of 7.1 cm by 2100 AD, but this figure may go up to as much as 40 cm per century in case the warming is doubled. In a subsequent dynamic model involving the ice flow, the ice sheet is found to produce a counteracting effect by dynamically producing steeper slopes at the margin, thereby reducing the area over which runoff can take place. This effect is particularly apparent in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, and is also more pronounced for the smaller temperature perturbations. Nevertheless, all these experiments certainly highlight the vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet with respect to a climatic warming.     

Honey, I cooled the cods: Modelling the effect of temperature on the structure of Boreal/Arctic fish ecosystems

Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems.     

Effects of salinity on NH4 + adsorption capacity, nitrification, and denitrification in Danish estuarine sediments

The regulatory effect of salinity on nitrogen dynamics in estuarine sediments was investigated in the Randers Fjord estuary, Denmark, using sediment slurries and intact sediment cores and applying ¹⁵N-isotope techniques. Sediment was sampled at three representative stations varying in salinity, and all experiments were run at 0‰, 10‰, 20‰, and 30‰. The sediment NH₄ ⁺ adsorption capacity decreased markedly at all stations when salinity was increased from 0‰ to 10‰; further increase showed little effect. In situ nitrification and denitrification also decreased with increasing salinities, with the most pronounced reduction of approximately 50% being observed when the salinity was raised from 0‰ to 10‰. The salinity-induced reduction in NH₄ ⁺ adsorption capacity and stimulation of NH₄ ⁺ efflux has previously been argued to cause a reduction in nitrification activity since the nitrifying bacteria become limited by NH₄ ⁺ availability at higher salinities. However, using a potential nitrification assay where NH₄ ⁺ was added in excess, it was demonstrated that potential nitrification activity also decreased with increasing salinity, indicating that the inhibitory salinity effect may also be a physiological effect on the microorganisms. This hypothesis was supported by the finding that denitrification based on NO₃ ⁻ from the overlying water (D_w), which is independent of the nitrification process, and hence NH₄ ⁺ availability, also decreased with increasing salinity. We conclude that changes in salinity have a significant effect on nitrogen dynamics in estuarine sediments, which must be considered when nitrogen transformations are measured and evaluated.     

Analysis of coprolites from the extinct mountain goat Myotragus balearicus

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted.