溃屈型滑坡稳定性分析中三个问题的探讨

针对溃屈型滑坡稳定性分析中的三个问题,即滑带土强度参数的分段取值,顺层段与切层段分界点和水的作用,逐一进行初步探讨。     

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水电工程坝址区构造应力场三维数值反演

以水电工程实例为背景,在现场调查和地应力测量的基础上,采用三维数值技术对水电站坝址区小范围内构造应力场进行了反演分析,通过对三维模型施加不同量值、不同方向的边界载荷,对比分析应力拟合点处的计算主应力与实测主应力之间的差别,从而得到最合理的边界载荷的量值和方向,即为坝址区构造应力场的量值和方向。计算结果表明：水电站坝址区构造应力场σ₁方向为S50°－60°E,量值为6～7 MPa;σ₃方向为N50°－60°E,量值为3～4 MPa。反演计算得到的坝址区构造应力场方向与区域应力场方向吻合,主应力量值也在合理范围内。     

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2008年3月21日新疆于田7.4级地震序列特征及震前部分地震学异常特征

The parameters,stress field background,geological tectonics and seismic sequence of the March 21,2008,M_S 7. 4 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake are discussed in this paper. The characteristics of seismic activity in the epicenter and its adjacent region before the earthquake are analyzed; and a comparison is made between the M_S 7. 4 Yutian earthquake sequence,the Wenchuan M_S 8. 0 earthquake sequence and the Wuqia M_S 6. 9 earthquake sequence. The results show the M_S 7. 4 Yutian earthquake occurred in the junction between the Altyn Tagh fault and the western Kunlun fault,resulting perhaps from the tensile fracture of the branch fault located southwest of the Ashikule basin due to left-1ateral dislocation of the Altyn Tagh fault; the seismic sequence is of main shock-aftershock type, the strongest aftershock being M_S 5. 8. The aftershocks attenuated quickly,and occurred in groups; the focal mechanism solutions and epicenter distribution have revealed a unilateral rupture source of this earthquake. Seismic activity shows that there was medium and medium-short term abnormity before the earthquake,but there was not short-imminent abnormity. Seismic activity of this earthquake sequence enhanced before the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan and the M_S 6. 9 Wuqia earthquakes,showing the window effect to some extent.     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

A new model for analyzing nonlinear torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section

An experimental study on concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section subjected to compressionflexure-torsion combined action has been carried out. The failure modes and load-deformation hysteretic relations were obtained. Based on the principles of classical material mechanics, the relations between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were established. Then the strain distribution on the rectangular section of concrete filled steel tube columns subjected to torsion was analyzed. The three-dimensional refined finite element model was also built, in order to make the precision verification. The matrix forms of the relation between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were derived, and introduced into the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect on the section. The comparison between test results and calculation results showed that the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect had high modeling efficiency and solution precision for predicting the torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular sections, and was suitable for analyzing the dynamic response of various structures subjected to the combined cyclic load caused by the earthquake load.     

Evaluation model of landslide hazards induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data

Landslides induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmenshan area were relatively well instrumented,which makes it possible to investigate the landslides using ground motion records.Firstly,this paper analyzes the data from Wenchuan earthquake on both regional and local site scale.The analyses show that the Newmark accumulative displacement calculated from the ground motion recorded in a particular geological hazard zone corresponds to the hazard intensity in that zone;the larger the displacemen...     

中国北方第四系地下水同位素分层及其指示意义

中国北方第四系地下水中的D, 18O, 3H和14C含量存在明显的分层现象, 这种现象与末次冰期以来的古气候变化有着较好的对应性, 反映了全新世和末次冰期气候条件的差别以及地下水不同的形成机制.深层地下水为晚更新世末次冰期时期形成, 其δ(D) 和δ(18O) 值与全新世补给形成的浅层地下水相比, 分别贫4× 10-3~ 16× 10-3和1× 10-3~ 2× 10-3, 说明末次冰期时期年均气温较低.古地下水中D和18O的大陆梯度与全新世以来地下水中的梯度基本相同, 说明在过去30000a来尽管气温发生变化, 但中国北方大陆的大气循环模式没有发生实质性的改变.地下水同位素分层现象反映了3种不同的补给机制及参与现代水循环程度.这些信息对大陆尺度上的水循环研究和地下水的可持续开发利用有着重要的意义.      

基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究

地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0～8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。