Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Synchronous Transformations of Mineral and Organic Constituents of Sedimentary Rocks in Geological Structure with an Initial Extension and Subsequent Compression Tectonic Regime

Sedimentary rocks of the section in the Red River fold zone of northern Viet Nam are considered. It is shown that secondary mineral parageneses formed in two stages. The first stage (35–17 Ma ago) corresponded to the period of structure extension and sediment subsidence to a depth of about 6 km. This period and subsequent 10 Ma were marked by the formation of a usual dia- and catagenetic zoning of metasedimentary rocks. The second stage (5–7 Ma ago) corresponded to processes of compression that were responsible for the deformation of rocks into gentle folds and 1.5 to 2.2 times contraction of the section thickness in different places. The sequential–mineralogical zoning was disturbed at this stage. Smectites and mixed-layer minerals were replaced by chlorites and hydromicas. Organic material also responded to compression simultaneously with inorganic components. The bituminous component was released from humic matter and rocks became enriched in hydrocarbons.     

Non‐local damage modelling of concrete: a procedure for the determination of model parameters

This paper presents a procedure for the determination of parameters of non‐local damage models. This is to assure a consistent response of a non‐local damage model, as choice of the internal length and other parameters of the model are varied. Correlations between the internal length and other parameters governing the local constitutive behaviour of the model are addressed and exploited. Focus is put on the relationship between the internal length of the non‐local model and the width of the fracture process zone. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the rigour of the proposed method. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New Methodology to Characterize Shear Behavior of Joints by Combination of Direct Shear Box Testing and Numerical Simulations

A new procedure is presented, which combines big shear box tests on rocks and corresponding numerical simulations with explicit consideration of joint roughness to get deeper insight into the shear behavior of rock joints. The procedure consists of three parts: (1) constant normal load- or CNS-shear box tests with registration of shear- and normal-components of stress and displacements and deduction of basis rock mechanical parameters; (2) high resolution 3D-scanning of joint surface to deduce joint topography; and (3) set-up, run and evaluation of 3-dimensional numerical model with explicit duplication of joint roughness as back-analysis of shear box tests. The numerical back-analysis provides deeper insight into the joint behavior at the micro-scale. Several parameters can be deduced, like micro-slope angle distribution, aperture size distribution, local normal stress distribution and detailed analysis of dilation in relation to shear direction. The potential of the new procedure is illustrated exemplary by shear box tests on slate.     

Statistical data fusion of multi-sensor AOD over the Continental United States

This article illustrates two techniques for merging daily aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from satellite and ground-based data sources to achieve optimal data quality and spatial coverage. The first technique is a traditional Universal Kriging (UK) approach employed to predict AOD from multi-sensor aerosol products that are aggregated on a reference grid with AERONET as ground truth. The second technique is spatial statistical data fusion (SSDF); a method designed for massive satellite data interpolation. Traditional kriging has computational complexity O(N³), making it impractical for large datasets. Our version of UK accommodates massive data inputs by performing kriging locally, while SSDF accommodates massive data inputs by modelling their covariance structure with a low-rank linear model. In this study, we use aerosol data products from two satellite instruments: the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer and the geostationary operational environmental satellite, covering the Continental United States.     

Floodplain hydrology of the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

The Mekong Delta is one of the largest and most intensively used estuaries in the world. Each year it witnesses widespread flooding which is both the basis of the livelihood for more than 17 million people but also the major hazard. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the hydrologic and hydraulic features is urgently required for various planning purposes. While the general causes and characteristics of the annual floods are understood, the inundation dynamics in the floodplains in Vietnam which are highly controlled by dikes and other control structures have not been investigated in depth. Especially, quantitative analyses are lacking, mainly due to scarce data about the inundation processes in the floodplains. Therefore, a comprehensive monitoring scheme for channel and floodplain inundation was established in a study area in the Plain of Reeds in the northeastern part of the Vietnamese Delta. This in situ data collection was complemented by a series of high‐resolution inundation maps derived from the TerraSAR‐X satellite for the flood seasons 2008 and 2009. Hence, the inundation dynamics in the channels and floodplains, and the interaction between channels and floodplains, could be quantified for the first time. The study identifies the strong human interference which is governed by flood protection levels, cropping patterns and communal water management. In addition, we examine the tidal influence on the inundation in various parts of the Delta, since it is expected that climate change‐induced sea level rise will increase the tidal contribution to floodplain inundation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection of mines in acoustic images using higher order spectral features

A new pattern-recognition algorithm detects approximately 90% of the mines hidden in the Coastal Systems Station Sonar0, 1, and 3 databases of cluttered acoustic images, with about 10% false alarms. Similar to other approaches, the algorithm presented here includes processing the images with an adaptive Wiener filter (the degree of smoothing depends on the signal strength in a local neighborhood) to remove noise without destroying the structural information in the mine shapes, followed by a two-dimensional FIR filter designed to suppress noise and clutter, while enhancing the target signature. A double peak pattern is produced as the FIR filter passes over mine highlight and shadow regions. Although the location, size, and orientation of this pattern within a region of the image can vary, features derived from higher order spectra (HOS) are invariant to translation, rotation, and scaling, while capturing the spatial correlations of mine-like objects. Classification accuracy is improved by combining features based on geometrical properties of the filter output with features based on HOS. The highest accuracy is obtained by fusing classification based on bispectral features with classification based on trispectral features.     

Direct parameter identification of fractured porous medium

A direct method of parameter identification for a fracture porous medium can be formulated. The coefficient of piezo-conductivity and the virtual fracture transmissivity can be determined using a combination of graphical methods and approximate formulae. Field calculation provides a practical demonstration of the proposed approach.