Radiative destabilization of the nocturnal stable atmospheric boundary layer over the desert

Radiative destabilization of the nocturnal stable atmospheric boundary layer (NSABL) over homogeneous desert terrain is predicted by an analytical model based on a modified diffusion equation. The model applies late at night under calm, dry conditions when long-wave radiative transfer dominates the NSABL evolution. A three-layer structure for the NSABL is proposed: a shear sub-layer closest to the surface, a radiative sub-layer which contains the inversion top, and a coupling sub-layer which matches the NSABL with the residual layer aloft. A sub-sub-layer called the nocturnal internal boundary layer (NIBL) is nested within the radiative sub-layer and comprises the temperature maximum. The model can explain: (1) maximum cooling in the NIBL, (2) deepening of the NIBL, (3) radiative destabilization of the NSABL, and (4) possible surface warming before sunrise. An example from the Mohave Desert, USA is presented, and the observed temperature profile compares favorably with the model solution.     

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

Climate change and human activities: a case study in Xinjiang, China

We examined both long-term climate variability and anthropogenic contributions to current climate change for Xinjiang province of northwest China. Xinjiang encompasses several mountain ranges and inter-mountain basins and is comprised of a northern semiarid region and a more arid southern region. Climate over the last three centuries was reconstructed from tree rings and temperature series were calculated for the past 50 years using weather station data. Three major conclusions from these analyses are: (1) Although temperature varied considerably in Xinjiang over the last 200 years, it was non-directional until the last 50 years when a substantial warming trend occurred; (2) The semiarid North Xinjiang was representative of the northern hemisphere climate, while the more arid South Xinjiang resembled the southern hemisphere climate, meanwhile, (3) The entire Xinjiang province captured the global-scale climate signal. We also compared human contributions to global change between North and South Xinjiang, including land cover/land use, population, and greenhouse gas production. For both regions, urban areas acted as heat islands; and large areas of grassland and forest were converted to barren land, especially in North Xinjiang. Additionally, North Xinjiang also showed larger increase in population and greenhouse gas emissions mainly associated with animal production than those in South Xinjiang. Although Xinjiang province is a geographically coupled mountain–basin system, the two regions have distinct climate patterns and anthropogenic activities related to land cover conversion and greenhouse gas production.     

Probabilistic correction of RCM precipitation in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

A parametric quantile–quantile transformation is used to correct the systematic errors of precipitation projected by regional climate models. For this purpose, we used two new probability distributions: modified versions of the Gumbel and log-logistic distributions, which fit to the precipitation of both wet and dry days. With these tools, the daily probability distribution of seven regional climate models was corrected: Aladin-ARPEGE, CLM-HadCM3Q0, HIRHAM-HadCM3Q0, HIRHAM-BCM, RECMO-ECHAM5-rt3, REMO-ECHAM-rt3 and PROMES-HadCM3Q0. The implemented method presents an error less than 5 % in the simulation of the average precipitation and 1 % in the simulation of the number of dry days. For the study area, an intensification of daily and subdaily precipitation is expected under the A1B scenario throughout the 21st century. This intensification is interpreted as a consequence of the process of ‘mediterraneanisation’ of the most southern ocean climate.     

Radiative Processes in the Stable Boundary Layer: Part I. Radiative Aspects

The structure of the radiatively dominated stable boundary layer is analysed using idealized calculations at high vertical and spectral resolution. The temperature profile of a nocturnal radiative boundary layer, developing after the evening transition, is found to be well described in terms of radiative cooling to the surface, although radiative exchanges within the atmosphere become increasingly important with time. The treatment of non-black surfaces is discussed in some detail and it is shown that the effect of reducing the surface emissivity is to decrease rather than to increase the radiative cooling rate in the surface layer. It is also argued that an accurate assessment of the impact of non-black surfaces requires careful attention to the spectral and directional characteristics of the surface emissivity. A polar nocturnal boundary layer, developing above snow-covered ground, is simulated and found to reach a slowly evolving state characterized by a strong radiative divergence near the surface that is comparable to observed values. Radiative boundary layers are characterized by large temperature gradients near the surface. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The role of earthquake-induced landslides in erosion and weathering from active mountain ranges:Progress and perspectives

Earthquakes play a fundamental role in the evolution of Earth's topography through co-seismic uplift and subsidence,as well as erosion through widespread landsl...     

A critical evaluation of multi‐proxy dendroclimatology in northern Finland

Twentieth‐century summer (July–August) temperatures in northern Finland are reconstructed using ring widths, maximum density and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) of Scots pine tree rings, and using combinations of these proxies. Verification is based on the coefficient of determination (r²), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Of the individual proxies, δ¹³C performs best, followed by maximum density. Combining δ¹³C and maximum density strengthens the climate signal but adding ring widths leads to little improvement. Blue intensity, an inexpensive alternative to X‐ray densitometry, is shown to perform similarly. Multi‐proxy reconstruction of summer temperatures from a single site produces strong correlations with gridded climate data over most of northern Fennoscandia. Since relatively few trees are required (<15) the approach could be applied to long sub‐fossil chronologies where replication may be episodically low. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.