Evolution of the Level of Sunspot Activity in Solar Cycles I. Evolution in the Descending Phase

Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number, Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, D_i, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show (1) for 46 months (94%) of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri-D_i plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level α= 5%, and for 36 months (73%) the fitting is even better, for α= 1%;(2) time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; (3) the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log R_i=0.704 In D_i-0.291.     

Discovery of Five Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies and Im- plications on the NLS1 Model

We report the discovery of five Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLSls) identified from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey bright sources. One of them has a quasar-like luminosity and two, including the quasar-like one, have close companions and/or show interacting features. We calculate the central black hole masses and Eddington ratios for the five NLSls. In combination with the objects of Kaspi et al., we find that NLSls have smaller central black hole masses and higher accretion rate than normal Seyfert 1s.     

中国地壳运动观测网络基本网观测精度研究

“中国地壳运动观测网络”于1998～2002年开展过5次基本网GPS联测。利用GIPSY软件处理结果进行的统计分析表明：基线定位水平分量精度为2～5mm，垂直分量为7～15mm；基线变化的水平分量测定精度为0．5mm／a，达到了流动观测的最高水平。分析基线定位误差发现：固定误差是目前相对定位的主要误差；与基线长度有关的比例误差对于水平分量而言，基本可以忽略。对速率的统计分析说明：至少4年观测间隔，才有可能获得比较精确、可靠的测站速率结果。     

PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997—1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surfacetemperature anomaly(SSTA)have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performedreasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical PacificSSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated thatthe occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997/1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairlywell by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and thedeveloping tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Ninaevents are above 0.5 at 0—14 lead months.     

云南天文台对流星的视频观测

近20年来，随着CCD和像增强器的发展，小巧灵活的流星视频观测系统在世界上逐渐多了起来．并且，最终将可能逐步取代流星的目视观测和普通照相观测．介绍云南天文台I号流星彗星视频照相系统的研制及其初步观测结果．这一系统由容易转换的5组件构成．用于流星观测的大视场相机的视场约36度，单帧图像可观测到约6等恒星．实测的恒星星等测量精度可达约0.2等．还讨论了视频照相机比传统的感光胶卷照相的长处，以及视频照相系统的改进与发展．     

地球非对称变形的最新观测证据

根据2001年3月IERS公布的全球近600个GPS站、SLR 站及VLBI站的站坐标、速度及它们的误差估计，研究了地球的现今非对称变形．结果表明，以赤道为界，北半球目前仍处于挤压变形中，而南半球则处于扩张变形中．若以90Ｅ 和90Ｗ 经线为界，则以180经线为中心线的太平洋半球处于挤压变形中，而以0经线为中心线的大西洋半球，则处于拉张变形中．这种变形再次证明地球处于双重非对称变形之中，而且，如果以6366740.0m作为理想地球平均曲率半径，根据空间大地测量结果算得的体积变化率达到0.6651012 m3/a．      

昆仑山口西Ms8.1地震的地壳变形特征

利用全球定位系统1991－2001年及震后4期GPS观测数据。获得了2001年11月14日昆仑山口西地震（Ms8.1)的同震和震后形变运动图像，跨破裂带GPS网最近两点测得的最大同震形变为1.9m左右，而震后4个月断层蠕滑引起的变形约为80mm，破裂带两侧震后变形幅度具有非对称性。南侧震后变形基本是北侧的2－3倍。研究结果显示破裂带南盘在震后向偏东方向有明显移动，预示本次地震后能量的重新分配与积累，根据近几十年以来东昆仑断裂带的大地震由西向东扩展的特点，未来地震有向东迁移的可能。     

ON THE VERTICAL DISCRETIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC MODELS—PART I:EXISTING PROBLEMS,DATA PROCESSING AND CHOICE OF VERTICAL COORDINATE AND BASIS FUNCTIONS

Discussions are carried out on the vertical discretization of current atmospheric models.It ispointed out that there exist problems in the integration of the hydrostatic equation and thecomputation of vertical advection,vertical diffusion and so on.Then some possible ways forsolving or alleviating them are suggested.Finally,the choice of vertical coordinate and basisfunctions is discussed.     

稳健回归分析及其应用研究

以前在回归分析的研究中，往往只强调对回归方程及其系数进行显著性检验，而忽略对自变量和因变量的稳健性分析。事实上，如果自变量或因变量存在粗差，将对回归模型产生破坏性影响并直接导致预测的失败。考虑到自变量或因变量可能相关，将基于等价方差－协方差的稳健最小二乘估计理论引入回归分析中，并将稳健最小二乘估计理论方法用于GPS高程拟合，取得了明显效果。     

Enhanced Destriping of Satellite Data of Ice Surface in Antarctica

1　Introduction TheAntarcticcontinentissurroundedbyPacificOcean,theAtlanticOceanandthe IndianOcean,itistheisolatedcontinentfarthestfromthemankind.ItsSpecialgeography andclimateenvironmentmakethemankindverydifficulttobeclosetoit,whichlimits mankind'sinvestigationofitandstudytoagreatextent.Restrictioncausedofthegeograph icalenvironmentandtheclimatecanbebrokentoagreatextentwiththeaidofthemodern remotesensingtechnology,itdemonstratesincomparablesuperioritythatremotesensing technologyisusedin…