Building the terrestrial planets: Constrained accretion in the inner Solar System

To date, no accretion model has succeeded in reproducing all observed constraints in the inner Solar System. These constraints include: (1) the orbits, in particular the small eccentricities, and (2) the masses of the terrestrial planets - Mars’ relatively small mass in particular has not been adequately reproduced in previous simulations; (3) the formation timescales of Earth and Mars, as interpreted from Hf/W isotopes; (4) the bulk structure of the asteroid belt, in particular the lack of an imprint of planetary embryo-sized objects; and (5) Earth’s relatively large water content, assuming that it was delivered in the form of water-rich primitive asteroidal material. Here we present results of 40 high-resolution (N = 1000-2000) dynamical simulations of late-stage planetary accretion with the goal of reproducing these constraints, although neglecting the planet Mercury. We assume that Jupiter and Saturn are fully-formed at the start of each simulation, and test orbital configurations that are both consistent with and contrary to the “Nice model”. We find that a configuration with Jupiter and Saturn on circular orbits forms low-eccentricity terrestrial planets and a water-rich Earth on the correct timescale, but Mars’ mass is too large by a factor of 5-10 and embryos are often stranded in the asteroid belt. A configuration with Jupiter and Saturn in their current locations but with slightly higher initial eccentricities (e = 0.07-0.1) produces a small Mars, an embryo-free asteroid belt, and a reasonable Earth analog but rarely allows water delivery to Earth. None of the configurations we tested reproduced all the observed constraints. Our simulations leave us with a problem: we can reasonably satisfy the observed constraints (except for Earth’s water) with a configuration of Jupiter and Saturn that is at best marginally consistent with models of the outer Solar System, as it does not allow for any outer planet migration after a few Myr. Alternately, giant planet configurations which are consistent with the Nice model fail to reproduce Mars’ small size.     

East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.     

Quality of geological CO2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets

We explore allowable leakage for carbon capture and geological storage to be consistent with maximum global warming targets of 2.5 and 3 °C by 2100. Given plausible fossil fuel use and carbon capture and storage scenarios, and based on modeling of time-dependent leakage of CO₂, we employ a climate model to calculate the long-term temperature response of CO₂ emissions. We assume that half of the stored CO₂ is permanently trapped by fast mechanisms. If 40?% of global CO₂ emissions are stored in the second half of this century, the temperature effect of escaped CO₂ is too small to compromise a 2.5 °C target. If 80?% of CO₂ is captured, escaped CO₂ must peak 300?years or later for consistency with this climate target. Due to much more CO₂ stored for the 3 than the 2.5 °C target, quality of storage becomes more important. Thus for the 3 °C target escaped CO₂ must peak 400?years or later in the 40?% scenario, and 3000?years or later in the 80?% scenario. Consequently CO₂ escaped from geological storage can compromise the less stringent 3 °C target in the long-run if most of global CO₂ emissions have been stored. If less CO₂ is stored only a very high escape scenario can compromise the more stringent 2.5 °C target. For the two remaining combinations of storage scenarios and climate targets, leakage must be high to compromise these climate targets.     

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5)—the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2° and meridional resolution varying from 0.27° at the equator to 0.54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2?°C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.     

Effect of changes in water level on sediment pore water redox geochemistry at a reservoir shoreline

Pore water samplers with high vertical resolution were used to evaluate the response of sediment redox geochemistry during transient hydrologic conditions at Lake Powell, a large reservoir in Utah and Arizona, USA. Samplers were deployed at two different yet proximal shoreline locations, White and Farley Canyons, before and after exposure of sediment to air and subsequent resubmersion, which resulted from fluctuations in the water level of the reservoir. Before exposure to air, an observed increase in dissolved Mn concentrations and, at Farley Canyon, an observed decrease in dissolved U concentrations across and immediately below the sediment–water interface indicated reducing conditions in the sub-surface. After exposure and resubmersion of the sediment, pore water profiles at each site differed distinctly from those observed before the fluctuation in water level. At White Canyon, an increase in U concentrations and a decrease in Mn concentrations in pore water after exposure and subsequent resubmersion are suggestive of oxidative processes occurring during the period of sediment exposure. Data from Farley Canyon suggest that the same processes may be occurring, but to a lesser extent. Depth profiles of As and Pb were also examined, but were relatively featureless compared to those of Mn and U. At both sites, sediment evaluated for pore water chemistry in the second sampling was only fully resubmerged for 2–5 days prior to the second sampling event, yet reducing conditions were clearly evident in the Mn pore water profiles. This suggests that the dynamics of the biogeochemical processes occurring in surface sediment at Lake Powell are responsive on the timescale defined by the fluctuating water levels in the reservoir.     

A catalog of tsunamis in New Caledonia from 28 March 1875 to 30 September 2009

In order to establish a tsunami alert system in New Caledonia in April 2008, the French Secretary of State for Overseas Affairs, with the aid of the UNESCO French Commission, mandated an investigation to build a more complete record of the most recent tsunamis. To complete this task, a call for witnesses was broadcast through various media and in public locations. These witnesses were then interviewed onsite about the phenomenon they had observed. Previous witness reports that had been obtained in the last few years were also used. For the most recent events, various archives were consulted. In total, 18 events were documented, of which 12 had not been previously mentioned in past work. These results confirm an exposure to a hazard of: (1) local origin (the southern part of the Vanuatu arc) with a very short post-seismic delay (< 30 min) before the arrival of wave trains; (2) regional origin (Solomon Islands arc, northern part of the Vanuatu arc) with a delay of several hours; and (3) an exposure to trans-oceanic tsunamis (Kamchatka 1952, South Chile 1960, Kuril Islands 2006, North Tonga 2009), unknown until today. These results highlight the necessity for New Caledonia to adopt an alert system, coupled with ocean tide gauges, that liaises with the main alert system for the Pacific (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), and brings to light the importance of establishing a prevention campaign.     

Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State

This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habitat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe summer low flow periods and more frequent days with intense winter flooding. While cool-season stream temperature changes and impacts on salmon are not assessed in this study, it is possible that climate-induced warming in winter and spring will benefit parts of the freshwater life-cycle of some salmon populations enough to increase their reproductive success (or overall fitness). However, the combined effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon populations, with impacts varying for different life history-types and watershed-types. Diminishing streamflows and higher stream temperatures in summer will be stressful for stream-type salmon populations that have freshwater rearing periods in summer. Increased winter flooding in transient runoff watersheds will likely reduce the egg-to-fry survival rates for ocean-type and stream-type salmon.     

Removal of ammonia toxicity in marine sediment TIEs: a comparison of Ulva lactuca,zeolite and aeration methods

Toxicity Identification Evaluations (TIEs) can be used to determine the specific toxicant(s), including ammonia, causing toxicity observed in marine sediments. Two primary TIE manipulations are available for characterizing and identifying ammonia in marine sediments: Ulva lactuca addition and zeolite addition. In this study, we compared the efficacy of these methods to (1) remove NH(x) and NH(3) from overlying and interstitial waters and (2) reduce toxicity to the amphipod Ampelisca abdita and mysid Americamysis bahia using both spiked and environmentally contaminated sediments. The utility of aeration for removing NH(x) and NH(3) during a marine sediment TIE was also evaluated preliminarily. In general, the U. lactuca and zeolite addition methods performed similarly well at removing spiked NH(x) and NH(3) from overlying and interstitial waters compared to an unmanipulated sediment. Toxicity to the amphipod was reduced approximately the same by both methods. However, toxicity to the mysid was most effectively reduced by the U. lactuca addition indicating this method functions best with epibenthic species exposed to ammonia in the water column. Aeration removed NH(x) and NH(3) from seawater when the pH was adjusted to 10; however, very little ammonia was removed at ambient pHs ( approximately 8.0). This comparison demonstrates both U. lactuca and zeolite addition methods are effective TIE tools for reducing the concentrations and toxicity of ammonia in whole sediment toxicity tests.     

Is There a Paleolimnological Explanation for ‘Walking on Water’ in the Sea of Galilee?

Lake Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee) is a small freshwater lake (148 km² and a mean depth of 20 m) situated in northern Israel. Throughout recent history there have been no known records of a total ice formation on its top. Furthermore, given that convection requires an initial cooling of the entire lake down to 4 °C, it is difficult to imagine how such a low-latitude lake, presently subject to two-digit temperatures during the winter, could ever freeze. Lake Kinneret is, however, unique in the sense that there are dense (warm and salty) springs along its western shore. The dynamics of the regions adjacent to these springs are investigated using a one-dimensional nonlinear analytical ice model, a paleoceanographic record of the sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea, and a statistical model. We show that, because the water directly above the plume created by the salty springs does not convect when it is cooled down to 4 °C, freezing of the region directly above the salty springs was possible during periods when the climate in the region was somewhat cooler than it is today. We refer to this localized freezing situation as ‘springs ice’. The analytical ice-model involves a slowly varying approach where the ice is part of a thin fresh and cold layer floating on top of the salty and warm spring water below. During the ice formation process, the ice is cooled by the atmosphere above and warmed by the spring water below. The plumes created by the springs have a length scale of 30 m, and it is argued that, during the Younger Dryas when the air temperature in the region was probably 7 °C or more cooler than today, ‘springs ice’ (thick enough to support human weight) was formed once every 27 years or less. During the cold events 1500 and 2500 years ago (when the atmospheric temperature was 3 °C or more lower than today) springs ice occurred about once in 160 years or less. Since the duration of these cold events is of the same order as the springs ice recurrence time, there is a substantial chance that at least one springs ice occurred during these cooler periods. With today's climate, the likelihood of a springs ice is virtually zero (i.e., once in more than 10,000 years). One set of those springs associated with the freezing is situated in Tabgha, an area where many archeological features associated with Jesus Christ have been found. On this basis, it is proposed that the unusual local freezing process might have provided an origin to the story that Christ walked on water. Since the springs ice is relatively small, a person standing or walking on it may appear to an observer situated some distance away to be ‘walking on water’. This is particularly true if it rained after the ice was formed (because rain smoothes out the ice’s surface). Whether this happened or not is an issue for religion scholars, archeologists, anthropologists, and believers to decide on. As natural scientists, we merely point out that unique freezing processes probably happened in that region several times during the last 12,000 years.