Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

Estimation of carbon stock for greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs

The identification and accurate quantification of sources or sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) have become a key challenge for scientists and policymakers working on climate change. The creation of a hydropower reservoir, while damming a river for power generation, converts the terrestrial ecosystems into aquatic and subsequently aerobic and anaerobic decomposition of flooded terrestrial soil organic matter resulting in the emission of significant quantity of GHG to the atmosphere. Tropical/subtropical hydropower reservoirs are more significant sources of GHG compared to boreal or temperate one. This paper aims to estimate the emission factor (gCO₂eq./kWh) and net GHG emission from Koteshwar hydropower reservoir in Uttarakhand, India. Further, estimated GHG are compared with those from global reservoirs located in the same eco-region so that its impact could be timely minimized/mitigated. Results have shown that emission factor and net GHG emission of Koteshwar reservoir are, respectively, estimated as 13.87 gCO₂eq./kWh and 167.70 Gg C year^?1 which are less than other global reservoirs located in the same eco-region. This information could be helpful for the hydropower industries to construct reservoirs in tropical eco-regions.     

Drought parameters in relation to truncation levels

Drought parameters, namely the longest duration, largest severity and the intensity have been calculated in relation to the truncation levels ranging from 0 to −0\5 in the standardized domain for the normal, gamma and log‐normal probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the drought variables. The drought variables taken in the investigation are the annual rainfall and runoff time‐series evolving randomly and obeying the Markovian dependence. The analysis showed that the assumption of independence of the drought duration and intensity works well in deriving the expression for drought severity at various truncation levels. An estimate of drought intensity has been realized from the concept of the truncated normal distribution of the standardized form of the time‐series of drought variables in the normalized domain. Furthermore the non‐normality and the dependence in the time‐series have a significant effect on the drought parameters at the truncation levels under consideration. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variation in properties of an uncropped,ploughed Miamian soil in relation to seasonal erodibility

Knowledge of seasonal variation in soil structural and related properties is important for the determination of critical periods during which soil is susceptible to accelerated erosion and other degradative processes. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the magnitude of seasonal variations in selected soil and deposited sediment properties in relation to soil erodibility for a Miamian silt-loam soil (Typic Hapludalf) in central Ohio. Erosion plots (USLE-type) were established on a 4·5% slope and maintained under bare, ploughed conditions from 1988 to 1991. Particle size distribution, bulk density(ρ_b), percentage water stable aggregates (WSA), soil organic carbon (SOC), and total soil nitrogen (TSN) of both soil and sediment samples were monitored between Autumn 1989 and Spring 1991. The soil and sediment particle size distributions followed no clear seasonal trends. Soil ρ_b increased following tillage (1·20 Mg m⁻³) and was highest (1·45 Mg m⁻³) during the autumn owing to soil slumping and consolidation upon drying. Low winter and spring values of ρ_b and %WSA (20–50% lower than in autumn) were attributed to excessive wetness and freeze–thaw effects. Both SOC and soil TSN contents progressively declined (from 2·18 to 1·79% and 1·97 to 1·75 g kg⁻¹, respectively) after ploughing owing to maintenance of plots under bare, fallow conditions. Spring highs and autumn lows of sediment SOC (3·12 vs. 2·44%) and TSN (2·70 vs. 1·96 g kg⁻¹) contents were a result of the combined effects of soil microbial activity and rainfall erosivity. Soil properties such as bulk density, SOC and WSA, which vary seasonally, can potentially serve as predictors of seasonal soil erodibility, which, in turn, could improve the predictive capacity of soil erosion prediction models. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleostress and Fluid Pressure Analysis of Vein Opening Using 3D Mohr Circle from the Quartz Vein Orientation Data of the South Delhi Terrane,Ambaji Area,NW India

Geotectonics - In many instances the sulphide mineralization is associated with quartz vein-related hydrothermal alteration zone. The syntectonic quartz veins display preferred orientation as their...     

Morphometry and Morphostructural Studies of the Parts of Gola River and Kalsa River Basins,Chanphi-Okhalkanda Region,Kumaun Lesser Himalaya,India

Geotectonics - Study of morphometric parameters such as stream length (Lu) and stream length ratios (Rl), bifurcation ratio (Rb), drainage density (D), form factor (Rf), circularity ratio (Rc),...     

Integrating terrain and vegetation indices for identifying potential soil erosion risk area

The present paper offers an innovative method to monitor the change in soil erosion potential by integrating terrain and vegetation indices derived from remote sensing data. Three terrain indices namely, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI) and slope length factor (LS), were derived from the digital elevation model. Normalized vegetation index (NDVI) was derived for the year 1988 and 2004 using remote sensing images. K-mean clustering was performed on staked indices to categorize the study area into four soil erosion potential classes. The validation of derived erosion potential map using USLE model showed a good agreement. Results indicated that there was a significant change in the erosion potential of the watershed and a gradual shifting of lower erosion potential class to next higher erosion potential class over the study period.     

Suggestion for Search of Malononitrile (CH2(CN)2) in a Cosmic Object: Potential Spectral Lines

Astronomy Reports - Though accurate laboratory studies of malononitrile (CH2(CN)2), a dinitrile molecule, have been carried out from time to time, and it has large electric dipole moment $$\mu =...     

Finite element analysis of reinforced embankment foundation

A finite element analysis of a reinforced embankment-foundation system has been conducted using a coupled formulation and elastoplasticity theory. Such important factors as type of reinforcement, the type of clay, depth of foundation and drainage condition affecting the system have been systematically investigated using appropriate constitutive models to depict various components of the system and material parameters of two typical soft clay deposits found in India. The displacements, reinforcement force and maximum heights of the embankments are among the aspects presented and discussed. It is shown that the effectiveness of the reinforcement is dependent on its stiffness and the shear strength of the clay deposit. The foundation depth has significant effect on the nature and magnitude of displacement, the reinforcement force and the height of embankment. Drainage conditions are shown to markedly influence the effectiveness of reinforcement. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical study of spatial variation of response spectrum using free field records of dense strong motion arrays

Spatial variation of acceleration response spectra is examined using strong motion records for a large number of events from dense accelerometer arrays at Chiba in Japan and SMART-1 in Lotung, Taiwan. The effects of earthquake component, structural damping, earthquake magnitude, focal depth, epicentral distance, structural time period, and station separation on the intra-event variation of response spectra are examined first through an empirical analysis and then through a least-square regression fit for parametric study. A very large scatter of the response spectra ratio is observed for both arrays, especially for SMART-1 array. The mean values of the ratio vary from 10 to 20 per cent for Chiba array while they vary from 25 to 50 per cent for SMART-1 array. The coefficients of variation of the ratio range from 5 to 25 per cent for Chiba array and 30 to 50 per cent for SMART-1 array. The correlation among response spectra is found to be inversely proportional to station separation and shows frequency dependence. For larger time periods, the correlation is lower and not higher. The correlation is also lower for UD earthquake component as compared to the two horizontal components. For higher damping ratio, the correlation among spectra is higher. The effect of the earthquake magnitude, focal depth and epicentral distance on the spatial variation is complex. The three parameters having implicit interdependence, considering their combined effect, a positive contribution to the value of ratio of response spectra is observed in the case of larger earthquake events. Furthermore, as mentioned above, the spatial variation for SMART-1 array is much larger than that for Chiba array. This difference can be attributed mainly to the difference in distance between the instruments in the two arrays. However, some of the difference is considered to be due to site specific characteristics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.