How Does Large Flaring Activity from the Same Active Region Produce Oppositely Directed Magnetic Clouds?

We describe the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that occurred as a result of a series of solar flares and eruptions from 4 to 8 November 2004. Two ICMEs/magnetic clouds occurring from these events had opposite magnetic orientations. This was despite the fact that the major flares related to these events occurred within the same active region that maintained the same magnetic configuration. The solar events include a wide array of activities: flares, trans-equatorial coronal loop disappearance and reformation, trans-equatorial filament eruption, and coronal hole interaction. The first major ICME/magnetic cloud was predominantly related to the active region 10696 eruption. The second major ICME/magnetic cloud was found to be consistent with the magnetic orientation of an erupting trans-equatorial filament or else a rotation of 160° of a flux rope in the active region. We discuss these possibilities and emphasize the importance of understanding the magnetic evolution of the solar source region before we can begin to predict geoeffective events with any accuracy.     

A high temperature equation of state for the H2O-CaCl2 and H2O-MgCl2 systems

An equation of state (EOS) is developed for salt-water systems in the high temperature range. As an example of the applications, this EOS is parameterized for the calculation of density, immiscibility, and the compositions of coexisting phases in the CaCl₂-H₂O and MgCl₂-H₂O systems from 523 to 973 K and from saturation pressure to 1500 bar. All available volumetric and phase equilibrium measurements of these binaries are well represented by this equation. This EOS is based on a Helmholtz free energy representation constructed from a reference system containing hard-sphere and polar contributions plus an empirical correction. For the temperature and pressure range in this study, the electrolyte solutes are assumed to be associated. The water molecules are modeled as hard spheres with point dipoles and the solute molecules, MgCl₂ and CaCl₂, as hard spheres with point quadrupoles. The free energy of the reference system is calculated from an analytical representation of the Helmholtz free energy of the hard-sphere contributions and perturbative estimates of the electrostatic contributions. The empirical correction used to account for deviations of the reference system predictions from measured data is based on a virial expansion. The formalism allows generalization to aqueous systems containing insoluble gases (CO₂, CH₄), alkali chlorides (NaCl, KCl), and alkaline earth chlorides (CaCl₂, MgCl₂). The program of this model is available as an electronic annex (see EA1 and EA2) and can also be downloaded at: http://www.geochem-model.org/programs.htm.     

Crystallization of magmatic iron meteorites: The effects of phosphorus and liquid immiscibility

Abstract— Magmatic iron meteorites are commonly thought to have formed by fractional crystallization of the metallic cores of asteroid‐sized bodies. As fractional crystallization proceeds, light elements such as P and S become enriched in the molten portion of the core. The light element content of the metallic liquid influences the partitioning behavior of trace elements and may cause liquid immiscibility to occur. The elemental trends observed in magmatic iron meteorites may have been affected by both of these processes. We have examined experimentally the effect of P on the solid‐metal‐liquid‐metal partitioning behavior of Ag and Pd, Re and Os, two element pairs used to date iron meteorite processes. Phosphorus has no effect on the partition coefficient of either Ag or Pd, which are incompatible and identical within experimental error. Compatible Re and Os also have identical partitioning behavior, within experimental error, and show increasing compatibility in the solid metal with increasing P content of the metallic liquid. Including the effects of both S and P on the partitioning behavior of Re and Os, simple fractional crystallization calculations can reproduce the large variation of Re and Os concentrations observed in four magmatic iron meteorite groups but have difficulty matching the later crystallizing portions of the trends. We have also conducted experiments with three phases—solid metal and two immiscible metallic liquids—to determine the location of the liquid immiscibility field near conditions thought to be relevant to magmatic iron meteorites. Our results show a significantly smaller liquid immiscibility field as compared to the previously published Fe‐P‐S phase diagram. Our revised phase diagram suggests that liquid immiscibility was encountered during the crystallization of asteroidal cores, but much later during the crystallization process than predicted by the previously published diagram.     

Effectiveness of Conservation Reserve Programs and Land ‘Slippage’ in Southwestern Kansas

Historically land reserve programs have been used to reduce soil erosion. Slippage, which occurs when the number of acres enrolled in a reserve program is not met by an equivalent reduction of acreage in production, has limited reserve success, however. This study addresses the effect of slippage on conservation reserves in southwestern Kansas from 1988–1994. Slippage has varied considerably on both spatial and temporal bases. At one extreme the programs were 100% successful in removing land from production, but at the other extreme, slippage rendered reserve programs nearly useless. Overall, slippage in the study area has greatly reduced conservation reserve effectiveness.     

Coordinated monitoring of the eccentric O-star binary Iota Orionis: optical spectroscopy and photometry

With the objective of investigating the windwind collision phenomenon and supporting contemporaneous X-ray observations, we have organized a large-scale, coordinated optical monitoring campaign of the massive, highly eccentric O9 III+B1 III binary Iota Orionis. Successfully separating the spectra of the components, we refine the orbital elements and confirm the rapid apsidal motion in the system. We also see strong interaction between the components during periastron passage and detect phase-locked variability in the spectrum of the secondary star. However, we find no unambiguous signs of the bow shock crashing on the surface of the secondary, despite the predictions of hydrodynamic simulations. Combining all available photometric data, we find rapid, phase-locked variations and model them numerically, thus restricting the orbital inclination to 50° i 70°.     

Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Abstract

Trends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3?mm?y^?1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7?mm?y^?1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9?mm?y^?1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from ?50?cm in northeastern Canada to 75?cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70?cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from ?15 to 50?cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20?cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7?cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites.     

Airborne LiDAR and Terrestrial Laser Scanning Derived Vegetation Obstruction Factors for Visibility Models

Research presented here explores the feasibility of leveraging vegetation data derived from airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) for visibility modeling. Using LiDAR and TLS datasets of a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) dominant ecosystem, tree canopy and trunk obstructions were isolated relevant to a discrete visibility beam in a short‐range line‐of‐sight model. Cumulative obstruction factors from vegetation were compared with reference visibility values from digital photographs along sightline paths. LiDAR‐derived tree factors were augmented with single‐scan TLS data for obstruction prediction. Good correlation between datasets was found up to 10 m from the terrestrial scanner, but fine scale visibility modeling was problematic at longer distances. Analysis of correlation and regression results reveal the influence of obstruction shadowing inherent to discrete LiDAR and TLS, potentially limiting the feasibility of modeling visibility over large areas with similar technology. However, the results support the potential for TLS‐derived subcanopy metrics for augmenting large amounts of aerial LiDAR data to significantly improve models of forest structure. Subtle LiDAR processing improvements, including more accurate tree delineation through higher point density aerial data, combined with better vegetation quantification processes for TLS data, will advance the feasibility and accuracy of data integration.     

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO₂ abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO₂ abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.     

Place,gender and the appeal of video lottery terminal gambling: unpacking a focus group study of Montreal youth

Youth gambling has become an important public health issue in Canada and elsewhere owing to the known associations between gambling and delinquency, family dysfunction and suicide. Modern electronic and virtual gambling activities like video lottery terminals (VLTs) may have particular appeal to youth who have been raised in social environments that are increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. The main objective of the study was to explore why youth gamble and what makes gambling activities like VLTs popular to youth in the places where youth live, study and play. The research is framed within a population health perspective that recognizes the role of social and physical environments in influencing health-related behaviours. Group discussions were conducted with youth to explore the popularity and appeal of gambling and VLTs, and how gambling fits into the daily routines of youth and the spaces they occupy. Methodologically, this research was conscious of responding to calls in the literature to analyze focus groups as an interactive group process rather a collection of individual responses, and to exercise analytic rigour by explicitly making the research team’s positionality and the data collection process transparent. Group discussions revealed gender differences in the appeal of particular gambling activities with young males being more likely to discuss poker, dice, sports-betting and online gambling as exciting social activities, while females described lottery and scratch (instant win) tickets as fun solitary activities. Substantive results point to the need for interventions to address social aspects of gambling that appeal, in particular, to young males potentially through increased provision of healthier alternatives to social engagement and greater attention to young people’s use of space.     

Spatial distribution and general population characteristics of mysid shrimps in the Westerschelde estuary (SW Netherlands)

The distribution and general population characteristics of five mysid shrimps were investigated in the period 2003–2005 in the Westerschelde estuary, a tidal temperate estuary situated along the Dutch–Belgian border. Multivariate analyses revealed that salinity predominantly governs the spatial distribution of Neomysis integer, Gastrosaccus spinifer, Schistomysis kervillei and Schistomysis spiritus while temperature, and to a lesser extent turbidity, control the distribution of Mesopodopsis slabberi. N. integer is a resident species in the mesohaline zone of the estuary, i.e. all life stages of the species are present in the estuary throughout the year. For the first time since decades N. integer inhabits the oligohaline zone of the estuary supposedly as a consequence of improved oxygen conditions in the upstream reaches. M. slabberi, the most abundant mysid in the Westerschelde, dominates the hyperbenthos of the mesohaline zone of the estuary. The polyhaline zone of the estuary is, most abundantly inhabited by M. slabberi, G. spinifer, S. kervillei and to a lesser extent by S. spiritus. The abundance of the latter four species is low in winter, probably due to a migration towards coastal waters to avoid colder temperatures in the estuary combined with an increased mortality after breeding. The sex ratio of all the mysid populations corresponds to the expected 1:1 female:male ratio and no salinity governed segregation is found between the different life stages of each mysid population. A seasonal variation exists in brood size in the N. integer population regardless of the body size, with a larger number of broods during winter and spring compared to the summer. In the other mysid populations the brood sizes vary only with the length of the ovigerous females.