Integrated Analysis of Physical and Biological Pan-Arctic Change

We investigate the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965–1995 through examination of 86 regionally-dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data. To our knowledge, this is the first semi-quantitative analysis of Arctic data that spans multiple disciplines and geographic regions. Although visual inspection and Principal Component Analysis of the data collection indicate that Arctic change is complex, three patterns are evident. The temporal pattern of change calculated as the first Principal Component (PC1), representing 23% of the variance, has a single regime-like shift near 1989 based on a large number of time series, which include projections from a strong stratospheric vortex in spring, the Arctic Oscillation, sea ice declines in several regions, and changes in selected mammal, bird, and fish populations. The pattern based on the second Principal Component (PC2) shows interdecadal variability over the Arctic Ocean Basin north of 70° N; this variability is observed in surface wind fields, sea ice, and ocean circulation, with the most recent shift near 1989. Contributions to PC1 cover a larger geographic area than PC2, and are consistent with a recent amplification of the interdecadal mode due to polar processes such as increased incidence of cold stratospheric temperature anomalies or internal feedbacks. Most land processes – such as snowcover, greenness, Siberian runoff, permafrost temperatures – and certain subarctic sea ice records show a third pattern of a linear trend over the 30-year interval, which is qualitatively different than either PC1 or PC2. These variables are from lower latitudes and often integrate the atmospheric or oceanographic influence over several seasons including summer. That more than half of the data collection projects strongly onto one of the three patterns, suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index or class of observations exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis.     

Tepee-shaped agglutinated microbialites: an example from a Famennian carbonate platform on the Lennard Shelf, northern Canning Basin, Western Australia

Distinctive, metre‐scale antiformal structures are well developed in a Famennian carbonate platform in the Chedda Cliffs area of the Lennard Shelf reef complexes. The structures are distinguished by chevron‐shaped crests and thickened cores and contain abundant non‐skeletal allochems (ooids/pisoids, peloids and intraclasts) of silt to pebble size and variably developed laminations and fenestrae. The internal morphology and pervasive occurrence of fenestral clotted and wavy laminated fabrics suggest that these structures are microbial mounds composed of agglutinated stromatolites and thrombolites. Microbial fabrics most probably originated through sediment trapping and binding by microbial mats with early lithification involving microbial calcification and cementation of trapped sediment. The facies and stratigraphic context of the mounds support a shallow subtidal, transitional backreef to reef‐flat setting; however, alone these mounds do not provide unequivocal environmental information. Other large antiformal structures in Famennian platforms on the Lennard Shelf, previously described as tepee structures, show morphological similarities to the Chedda Cliffs mounds, which suggests that these other structures may also be microbial mounds. The presence of microbial mounds in platform successions further highlights the importance of microbial communities in the Lennard Shelf reef complexes.     

Comparison of total and partial extractable copper in anomalous and background peat samples

Nitric-perchloride acid, 0.5 M hydrochloric acid, 0.05 M EDTA and neutral ammonium acetate were investigated as extractants for copper in peat samples. Greatest contrast between anomalous and background samples was found with nitric-perchloric acid (‘total’) digestion. EDTA or dilute hydrochloric acid liberated 13–100% of the total copper whereas ammonium acetate removed a maximum of 8%.     

Role of weather and water quality in population dynamics of submersed macrophytes in the tidal Potomac River

Weather and water-quality data from 1980 to 1989 were correlated with fluctuations in submersed macrophyte populations in the tidal Potomac River near Washington, D.C., to elucidate causal relationships and explain population dynamics. Both reaches were unvegetated in 1980 when mean growing-season Secchi depths were <0.60 m. Macrophyte resurgence in the upper tidal river in 1983 was associated with a growing-season Secchi depth of 0.86 m, total suspended solids (TSS) of 17.7 mg l^?1, chlorophyll a concentrations of 15.2 μg l^?1, significantly higher than average percent available sunshine, and significantly lower than average wind speed. From 1983 to 1989, mean seasonal Secchi depths <0.65 m were associated with decrease in plant coverage and mean seasonal Secchi depths >0.65 were associated with increases in plant coverage. Changes in mean seasonal Secchi depth were related to changes in mean seasonal TSS and chlorophyll a concentration; mean Secchi depths >0.65 generally occur when seasonal mean TSS is <19 mg l^?1 and seasonal mean chlorophyll a concentration is ≤15 μg l^?1. Secchi depth is highly correlated with plant growth in the upper tidal river and chlorophyll a and TSS with plant growth in the lower tidal river. Wind speed is an important influence on plant growth in both reaches.     

Comparison of continuous records of near-bottom dissolved oxygen from the hypoxia zone along the Louisiana coast

Oxygen depletion is a seasonally dominant feature of the lower water column on the highly-stratified, riverine-influenced continental shelf of Louisiana. The areal extent of hypoxia (bottom waters ≤2 mg l^?1 dissolved oxygen) in mid-summer may encompass up to 9,500 km², from the Mississippi River delta to the upper Texas coast, with the spatial configuration of the zone varying interannually. We placed two continuously recording oxygen meters (Endeco 1184) within 1 m of the seabed in 20-m water depth at two locations 77 km apart where we previously documented midsummer bottom water hypoxia. The oxygen meters recorded considerably different oxygen conditions for a 4-mo deployment from mid-June through mid-October. At the station off Terrebonne Bay (C6A), bottom waters were severely depleted in dissolved oxygen and often anoxic for most of the record from mid-June through mid-August, and there were no strong diurnal or diel patterns. At the station 77 km to the east and closer to the Mississippi River delta (WD32E), hypoxia occurred for only 50% of the record, and there was a strong diurnal pattern in the oxygen time-series data. There was no statistically significant coherence between the oxygen time-series at the two stations. Coherence of the oxygen records with wind records was weak. The dominant coherence identified was between the diurnal peaks in the WD32E oxygen record and the bottom pressure record from a gauge located at the mouth of Terrebonne Bay, suggesting that the dissolved oxygen signal at WD32E was due principally to advection by tidal currents. Although the oxygen time-series were considerably different, they were consistent with the physical and biological processes that affect hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf. Differences in the time-series were most intimately tied to the topographic cross-shelf gradients in the two locations, that is, station C6A off Terrebonne Bay was in the middle of a broad, gradually sloping shelf and station WD32E in the Mississippi River Delta Bight was in an area with a steeper cross-shelf depth gradient and likely situated near the edge of a hypoxic water mass that was tidally advected across the study site.     

A preliminary mass balance model of primary productivity and dissolved oxygen in the Mississippi River Plume/Inner Gulf Shelf Region

A deterministic, mass balance model for phytoplankton, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen was applied to the Mississippi River Plume/Inner Gulf Shelf (MRP/IGS) region. The model was calibrated to a comprehensive set of field data collected during July 1990 at over 200 sampling stations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The spatial domain of the model is represented by a three-dimensional, 21-segment water-column grid extending from the Mississippi River Delta west to the Louisiana-Texas border, and from the shoreline seaward to the 30–60 m bathymetric contours. Diagnostic analyses and numerical experiments were conducted with the calibrated model to better understand the environmental processes controlling primary productivity and dissolved oxygen dynamics in the MRP/IGS region. Underwater light attenuation appears relatively more important than nutrient limitation in controlling rates of primary productivity. Chemical-biological processes appear relatively more important than advective-dispersive transport processes in controlling bottom-water dissolved oxygen dynamics. Oxidation of carbonaceous material in the water column, phytoplankton respiration, and sediment oxygen demand all appear to contribute significantly to total oxygen depletion rates in bottom waters. The estimated contribution of sediment oxygen demand to total oxygen-depletion rates in bottom waters ranges from 22% to 30%. Primary productivity appears to be an important source of dissolved oxygen to bottom waters in the region of the Atchafalaya River discharge and further west along the Louisiana Inner Shelf. Dissolved oxygen concentrations appear very sensitive to changes in underwater light attenuation due to strong coupling between dissolved oxygen and primary productivity in bottom waters. The Louisiana Inner Shelf in the area of the Atchafalaya River discharge and further west to the Texas border appears to be characterized by significantly different light attenuation-depth-primary productivity relationships than the area immediately west of the Mississippi Delta. Nutrient remineralization in the water column appears to contribute significantly to maintaining chlorophyll concentrations on the Louisiana Inner Shelf.     

Potential protonation sites in the Al<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>5</Subscript> polymorphs based on polarized FTIR spectroscopy and properties of the electron density distribution

Potential protonation sites for, kyanite, sillimanite, and andalusite, located in a mapping of the (3, −3) critical points displayed by their L(r) = −∇²ρ(r) distributions, are compared with polarized single-crystal FTIR spectra of kyanite and sillimanite determined earlier and with andalusite measured in this study. For andalusite, seven peaks were observed when the electric vector, E, is parallel to [100]: four intense ones at 3,440, 3,460, 3,526, and 3,597 cm⁻¹ and three weaker ones at 3,480, 3,520, and 3,653 cm⁻¹. Six peaks, three intense ones at 3,440, 3,460, and 3,526 cm⁻¹ and three weaker ones at 3,480, 3,520, and 3,653 cm⁻¹ when E parallels [010]. No peaks were observed when E is parallel to [001]. The concentration of water in andalusite varies between 110 and 168 ppm by weight % H₂O. Polarized FTIR spectra indicate that the OH vector is parallel to (001) in andalusite and sillimanite and in kyanite. Examination of the L(r) (3, −3) critical points in comparison with the polarized FTIR indicates that H prefers to bond to the oxygen atoms O1 and O2 in andalusite and O2 and O4 in sillimanite which correspond to the underbonded oxygen atoms and those with the largest L(r) maxima. In kyanite, comparison of the FTIR spectrum and the critical points indicates that H will preferentially bond to the two 4-coordinated O2 and O6 atoms.     

Geochemistry and Evolution of Subcontinental Lithospheric Mantle in Central Europe: Evidence from Peridotite Xenoliths of the Kozakov Volcano, Czech Republic

Neogene basanite lavas of Kozákov volcano, located alongthe Lusatian fault in the northeastern Czech Republic, containabundant anhydrous spinel lherzolite xenoliths that providean exceptionally continuous sampling of the upper two-thirdsof central European lithospheric mantle. The xenoliths yielda range of two-pyroxene equilibration temperatures from 680°Cto 1070°C, and are estimated to originate from depths of32–70 km, based on a tectonothermal model for basalticunderplating associated with Neogene rifting. The sub-Kozákovmantle is layered, consisting of an equigranular upper layer(32–43 km), a protogranular intermediate layer that containsspinel–pyroxene symplectites after garnet (43–67km), and an equigranular lower layer (67–70 km). Negativecorrelations of wt % TiO₂, Al₂O₃, and CaO with MgO and clinopyroxenemode with Cr-number in the lherzolites record the effects ofpartial fusion and melt extraction; Y and Yb contents of clinopyroxeneand the Cr-number in spinel indicate 5 to 15% partial melting.Subsequent metasomatism of a depleted lherzolite protolith,probably by a silicate melt, produced enrichments in the largeion lithophile elements, light rare earth elements and highfield strength elements, and positive anomalies in primitivemantle normalized trace element patterns for P, Zr, and Hf.Although there are slight geochemical discontinuities at theboundaries between the three textural layers of mantle, theretends to be an overall decrease in the degree of depletion withdepth, accompanied by a decrease in the magnitude of metasomatism.Clinopyroxene separates from the intermediate protogranularlayer and the lower equigranular layer yield ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd valuesof 0·51287–0·51307 (_Nd = +4·6 to+8·4) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of 0·70328–0·70339.Such values are intermediate with respect to the Nd–Srisotopic array defined by anhydrous spinel peridotite xenolithsfrom central Europe and are similar to those associated withthe present-day low-velocity anomaly in the upper mantle beneathEurope. The geochemical characteristics of the central Europeanlithospheric mantle reflect a complex evolution related to Devonianto Early Carboniferous plate convergence, accretion, and crustalthickening, Late Carboniferous to Permian extension and gravitationalcollapse, and Neogene rifting, lithospheric thinning, and magmatism. KEY WORDS: xenoliths; lithospheric mantle; REE–LILE–HFSE; Sr–Nd isotopes; Bohemian Massif     

Quantifying impacts of forecast uncertainties on predicted storm surges

In this paper, we propose a framework for quantifying risks, including (1) the effects of forecast errors, (2) the ability to resolve critical grid features that are important to accurate site-specific forecasts, and (3) a framework that can move us toward performance-based/cost-based decisions, within an extremely fast execution time. A key element presently lacking in previous studies is the interrelationship between the effects of combined random errors and bias in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and bias and random errors in surge models. This approach examines the number of degrees of freedom in present forecasts and develops an equation for the quantification of these types of errors within a unified system, given the number of degrees of freedom in the NWP forecasts. It is shown that the methodology can be used to provide information on the forecasts and along with the combined uncertainty due to all of the individual contributions. A potential important benefit from studies using this approach would be the ability to estimate financial and other trade-offs between higher-cost “rapid” evacuation methods and lower-cost “slower” evacuation methods. Analyses here show that uncertainty inherent in these decisions depends strongly on forecast time and geographic location. Methods based on sets of surge maxima do not capture this uncertainty and would be difficult to use for this purpose. In particular, it is shown that surge model bias can play a dominant role in distorting the forecast probabilities.