Public policy and the changing landscape

The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed.     

Feeding preferences of estuarine mysids Neomysis integer and Rhopalophthalmus tartessicus in a temperate estuary (Guadalquivir Estuary,SW Spain)

Mysid shrimps are an important component of estuarine food webs because they play a key role in energy transfer as intermediate prey. We investigated the seasonal, tidal and depth specific variation in the diet of the estuarine mysids Neomysis integer and Rhopalophthalmus tartessicus and explored its implications for the planktonic community structure of a temperate estuary (Guadalquivir Estuary, SW Spain). Neomysis integer is an opportunistic omnivore feeding mainly on mesozooplankton and on members of the detrital–microbial loop, shifting prey seasonally according to availability. In contrast, R. tartessicus showed a more carnivorous diet and shifted its target prey during seasons of low resource availability. Despite statistically significant differences in diet composition, both species shared prey of similar size, particularly juvenile Mesopodopsis slabberi, the most abundant mysid species in this estuary, and copepods. Although these similarities imply inter-specific resource competition, their co-existence is achieved by niche partitioning and spatial segregation: the higher osmoregulatory capacity and foraging plasticity of N. integer confers a broader niche breadth for this species allowing N. integer to inhabit the more stressful oligohaline region of the estuary where R. tartessicus cannot survive. We propose that this mechanism relaxes the potential for competition between N. integer and R. tartessicus.     

Offshore aeolian sediment transport across a human‐modified foredune

Concepts derived from previous studies of offshore winds on natural dunes are evaluated on a dune maintained for shore protection during three offshore wind events. The potential for offshore winds to form a lee‐side eddy on the backshore or transfer sediment from the dune and berm crest to the water are evaluated, as are differences in wind speed and sediment transport on the dune crest, berm crest and a pedestrian access gap. The dune is 18–20 m wide near the base and has a crest 4.5 m above backshore elevation. Two sand‐trapping fences facilitate accretion. Data were obtained from wind vanes on the crest and lee of the dune and anemometers and sand traps placed across the dune, on the beach berm crest and in the access gap. Mean wind direction above the dune crest varied from 11 to 3 deg from shore normal. No persistent recirculation eddy occurred on the 12 deg seaward slope. Wind speed on the berm crest was 85–89% of speed at the dune crest, but rates of sediment transport were 2.27 times greater during the strongest winds, indicating that a wide beach overcomes the transport limitation of a dune barrier. Limited transport on the seaward dune ramp indicates that losses to the water are mostly from the backshore, not the dune. The seaward slope gains sand from the landward slope and dune crest. Sand fences causing accretion on the dune ramp during onshore winds lower the seaward slope and reduce the likelihood of detached flows during offshore winds. Transport rates are higher in access gaps than on the dune crest despite lower wind speeds because of flatter slopes and absence of vegetation. Transport rates across dunes and through gaps can be reduced using vegetation and raised walkover structures. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of extreme precipitation in coastal river basins of the southern mexican Pacific region

Extreme wet and dry years (± 1 standard deviation, respectively), as well as the top 95 percentile (P95) of daily precipitation events, derived from tropical cyclone (TC) and nontropical cyclone (NTC) rainfall, were analyzed in coastal river basins in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (Río Verde, Río Tehuantepec, and the Southern Coast). The study is based on daily precipitation records from 47 quality-controlled stations for the 1961 to 1990 period and TC data for the Eastern Tropical Pacific (EPAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate extreme (dry and wet) trends in the annual contribution of daily P95 precipitation events and to determine the relationship of summer precipitation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacifical Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A regionalization based on a rotated principal component analysis (PCA) was used to produce four precipitation regions in the coastal river basins. A significant negative correlation (significance at the 95% level) was only found with ONI in rainfall Region 3, nearest to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Wet years, mainly linked to TC-derived P95 precipitation events, were associated with SST anomalies (≥?0.6°C) similar to weak La Niña and Neutral cool conditions, while dry years were associated with SST positive anomalies similar to Neutral warm conditions (≤?0.5°C). The largest contribution of extreme P95 precipitation derived from TCs to the annual precipitation was observed in Region 3. A significant upward trend in the contribution of TC-derived precipitation to the annual precipitation was found only in Region 1, low Río Verde.     

Evolution of a complex isolated dome system,Cerro Pizarro,central México

Cerro Pizarro is an isolated rhyolitic dome in the intermontane Serdán-Oriental basin, located in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Cerro Pizarro erupted ~1.1 km³ of magma at about 220 ka. Activity of Cerro Pizarro started with vent-clearing explosions at some depth; the resultant deposits contain clasts of local basement rocks, including Cretaceous limestone, ~0.46-Ma welded tuff, and basaltic lava. Subsequent explosive eruptions during earliest dome growth produced an alternating sequence of surge and fallout layers from an inferred small dome. As the dome grew both vertically and laterally, it developed an external glassy carapace due to rapid chilling. Instability of the dome during emplacement caused the partial gravitational collapse of its flanks producing various block-and-ash-flow deposits. After a brief period of repose, re-injection of magma caused formation of a cryptodome with pronounced deformation of the vitrophyric dome and the underlying units to orientations as steep as near vertical. This stage began apparently as a gas-poor eruption and no explosive phases accompanied the emplacement of the cryptodome. Soon after emplacement of the cryptodome, however, the western flank of the edifice catastrophically collapsed, causing a debris avalanche. A hiatus in eruptive activity was marked by erosion of the cone and emplacement of ignimbrite derived from a caldera to the north of Cerro Pizarro. The final growth of the dome growth produced its present shape; this growth was accompanied by multiple eruptions producing surge and fallout deposits that mantle the topography around Cerro Pizarro. The evolution of the Cerro Pizarro dome holds aspects in common with classic dome models and with larger stratovolcano systems. We suggest that models that predict a simple evolution for domes fail to account for possibilities in evolutionary paths. Specifically, the formation of a cryptodome in the early stages of dome formation may be far more common than generally recognized. Likewise, sector collapse of a dome, although apparently rare, is a potential hazard that must be recognized and for which planning must be done.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

Patterns and controls of surface sediment distribution: west-central Florida inner shelf

The west-central Florida inner shelf represents a transition between the quartz-dominated barrier-island system and the carbonate-dominated mid-outer shelf. Surface sediments exhibit a complex distribution pattern that can be attributed to multiple sediment sources and the ineffectiveness of physical processes for large-scale sediment redistribution. The west Florida shelf is the submerged extension of the Florida carbonate platform, consisting of a limestone karst surface veneered with a thin unconsolidated sediment cover. A total of 498 surface sediment samples were collected on the inner shelf and analyzed for texture and composition. Results show that sediment consists of a combination of fine quartz sand and coarse, biogenic carbonate sand and gravel, with variable but subordinate amounts of black, phosphorite-rich sand. The carbonate component consists primarily of molluskan fragments. The distribution is patchy and discontinuous with no discernible pattern, and the transition between sediment types is generally abrupt. Quartz-rich sediment dominates the inner 15 km north of the entrance into Tampa Bay, but south of the Bay is common only along the inner 3 km. Elsewhere, carbonate-rich sediment is the predominate sediment type, except where there is little sediment cover, in which cases black, phosphorite-rich sand dominates. Sediment sources are likely within, or around the periphery of the basin. Fine quartz sand is likely reworked from coastal units deposited during Pleistocene sea-level high stands. Carbonate sand and gravel is produced by marine organisms within the depositional basin. The black, phosphorite-rich sand likely originates from the bioerosion and reworking of the underlying strata that irregularly crop out within the study area. The distribution pattern contains elements of both storm- and tide-dominated siliciclastic shelves, but it is dictated primarily by the sediment source, similar to some carbonate systems. Other systems with similar sediment attributes include cool-water carbonate, sediment-starved, and mixed carbonate/siliciclastic systems. This study suggests a possible genetic link among the three systems.     

Non-Energy Resources,Connecticut Coastal Waters,Year 9 and 10 Activities

The Connecticut effort in year 9 of the Continental Margins Program concentrated on a 13.6-mi2 area south of the Housatonic River. This area was chosen for a side-scan sonar survey because it lies on and adjacent to the bathymetric expressions of two fairly large, subcropping, potential sources of coarse material. Previous seismic work in the area indicated that outcrops or subcrops of these potential source deposits could be delineated using their bathymetric expression. Owing to the limited resolution of the seismic data, a correlation between bottom type and underlying source deposits could not be made with the seismics alone. Results from the November 1993 side-scan survey show that although the source deposits have discernible bathymetric expressions, they are not cropping out as much as expected. As a result, bottom type is not necessarily determined by subcropping deposits in this particular area. Year 10 work was concentrated in Fishers Island Sound, where three areas of potential interest for near-shore gravel resources had previously been identified. These areas were surveyed, during the spring of 1996, using the RoxAnn Seabed Classification System. A small video camera and a Van Veen grab sampler were used to calibrate and verify the RoxAnn data. Although previous sampling had indicated the presence of gravel or gravelly sediment in all of the survey areas, the RoxAnn results showed less gravel than anticipated. Vibrant eelgrass beds and other habitat indicators were detected in all of the survey areas. Given the variable sediment results, and the high habitat potential of the areas surveyed, the likelihood of developing a sand and gravel supply from the near shore of Fishers Island Sound appears quite low.     

Evolution of tuff ring-dome complex: the case study of Cerro Pinto, eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Cerro Pinto is a Pleistocene rhyolite tuff ring-dome complex located in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The complex is composed of four tuff rings and four domes that were emplaced in three eruptive stages marked by changes in vent location and eruptive character. During Stage I, vent clearing produced a 1.5-km-diameter tuff ring that was then followed by emplacement of two domes of approximately 0.2 km³ each. With no apparent hiatus in activity, Stage II began with the explosive formation of a tuff ring ~2 km in diameter adjacent to and north of the earlier ring. Subsequent Stage II eruptions produced two smaller tuff rings within the northern tuff ring as well as a small dome that was mostly destroyed by explosions during its growth. Stage III involved the emplacement of a 0.04 km³ dome within the southern tuff ring. Cerro Pinto’s eruptive history includes sequences that follow simple rhyolite-dome models, in which a pyroclastic phase is followed immediately by effusive dome emplacement. Some aspects of the eruption, however, such as the explosive reactivation of the system and explosive dome destruction, are more complex. These events are commonly associated with polygenetic structures, such as stratovolcanoes or calderas, in which multiple pulses of magma initiate reactivation. A comparison of major and trace element geochemistry with nearby Pleistocene silicic centers does not show indication of any co-genetic relationship, suggesting that Cerro Pinto was produced by a small, isolated magma chamber. The compositional variation of the erupted material at Cerro Pinto is minimal, suggesting that there were not multiple pulses of magma responsible for the complex behavior of the volcano and that the volcanic system was formed in a short time period. The variety of eruptive style observed at Cerro Pinto reflects the influence of quickly exhaustible water sources on a short-lived eruption. The rising magma encountered small amounts of groundwater that initiated eruption phases. Once a critical magma:water ratio was exceeded, the eruptions became dry and sub-plinian to plinian. The primary characteristic of Cerro Pinto is the predominance of fall deposits, suggesting that the level at which rising magma encountered water was deep enough to allow substantial fragmentation after the water source was exhausted. Isolated rhyolite domes are rare and are not currently viewed as prominent volcanic hazards, but the evolution of Cerro Pinto demonstrates that individual domes may have complex cycles, and such complexity must be taken into account when making hazard risk assessments.     

The physical volcanology of the 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina, southern Peru

Volcán Huaynaputina is a group of four vents located at 16°36'S, 70°51'W in southern Peru that produced one of the largest eruptions of historical times when ~11 km³ of magma was erupted during the period 19 February to 6 March 1600. The main eruptive vents are located at 4200 m within an erosion-modified amphitheater of a significantly older stratovolcano. The eruption proceeded in three stages. Stage I was an ~20-h sustained plinian eruption on 19-20 February that produced an extensive dacite pumice fall deposit (magma volume ~2.6 km³). Throughout medial-distal and distal parts of the dispersal area, a fine-grained plinian ashfall unit overlies the pumice fall deposit. This very widespread ash (magma volume ~6.2 km³) has been recognized in Antarctic ice cores. A short period of quiescence allowed local erosion of the uppermost stage-I deposits and was followed by renewed but intermittent explosive activity between 22 and 26 February (stage II). This activity resulted in intercalated pyroclastic flow and pumice fall deposits (~1 km³). The flow deposits are valley confined, whereas associated co-ignimbrite ash fall is found overlying the plinian ash deposit. Following another period of quiescence, vulcanian-type explosions of stage III commenced on 28 February and produced crudely bedded ash, lapilli, and bombs of dense dacite (~1 km³). Activity ceased on 6 March. Compositions erupted are predominantly high-K dacites with a phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase>hornblende>biotite>Fe-Ti oxides-apatite. Major elements are broadly similar in all three stages, but there are a few important differences. Stage-I pumice has less evolved glass compositions (~73% SiO₂), lower crystal contents (17-20%), lower density (1.0-1.3 g/cm³), and phase equilibria suggest higher temperature and volatile contents. Stage-II and stage-III juvenile clasts have more evolved glass (~76% SiO₂) compositions, higher crystal contents (25-35%), higher densities (up to 2.2 g/cm³), and lower temperature and volatile contents. All juvenile clasts show mineralogical evidence for thermal disequilibrium. Inflections on a plot of log thickness vs area^1/2 for the fall deposits suggest that the pumice fall and the plinian ash fall were dispersed under different conditions and may have been derived from different parts of the eruption column system. The ash appears to have been dispersed mainly from the uppermost parts of the umbrella cloud by upper-level winds, whereas the pumice fall may have been derived from the lower parts of the umbrella cloud and vertical part of the eruption column and transported by a lower-altitude wind field. Thickness half distances and clast half distances for the pumice fall deposit suggests a column neutral buoyancy height of 24-32 km and a total column height of 34-46 km. The estimated mass discharge rate for the ~20-h-long stage-I eruption is 2.4᎒⁸ kg/s and the volumetric discharge rate is ~3.6᎒⁵ m³/s. The pumice fall deposit has a dispersal index (Hildreth and Drake 1992) of 4.4, and its index of fragmentation is at least 89%, reflecting the dominant volume of fines produced. Of the 11 km³ total volume of dacite magma erupted in 1600, approximately 85% was evacuated during stage 1. The three main vents range in size from ~70 to ~400 m. Alignment of these vents and a late-stage dyke parallel to the NNW-SSE trend defined by older volcanics suggest that the eruption initiated along a fissure that developed along pre-existing weaknesses. During stage I this fissure evolved into a large flared vent, vent 2, with a diameter of approximately 400 m. This vent was active throughout stage II, at the end of which a dome was emplaced within it. During stage III this dome was eviscerated forming the youngest vent in the group, vent 3. A minor extra-amphitheater vent was produced during the final event of the eruptive sequence. Recharge may have induced magma to rise away from a deep zone of magma generation and storage. Subsequently, vesiculation in the rising magma batch, possibly enhanced by interaction with an ancient hydrothermal system, triggered and fueled the sustained Plinian eruption of stage I. A lower volatile content in the stage-II and stage-III magma led to transitional column behavior and pyroclastic flow generation in stage II. Continued magma uprise led to emplacement of a dome which was subsequently destroyed during stage III. No caldera collapse occurred because no shallow magma chamber developed beneath this volcano.     

Magnetosheath Interaction with the High Latitude Magnetopause

We present both statistical and case studies of magnetosheath interaction with the high-latitude magnetopause on the basis of Interball-1 and other ISTP spacecraft data. We discuss those data along with recently published results on the topology of cusp-magnetosheath transition and the roles of nonlinear disturbances in mass and energy transfer across the high-latitude magnetopause. For sunward dipole tilts, a cusp throat is magnetically open for direct interaction with the incident flow that results in the creation of a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) over an indented magnetopause and downstream of the cusp. For antisunward tilts, the cusp throat is closed by a smooth magnetopause; demagnetized ‘plasma balls’ (with scale ∼ few R_E, an occurrence rate of ∼25% and trapped energetic particles) present a major magnetosheath plasma channel just inside the cusp. The flow interacts with the ‘plasma balls’ via reflected waves, which trigger a chaotization of up to 40% of the upstream kinetic energy. These waves propagate upstream of the TBL and initiate amplification of the existing magnetosheath waves and their cascade-like decays during downstream passage throughout the TBL. The most striking feature of the nonlinear interaction is the appearance of magnetosonic jets, accelerated up to an Alfvenic Mach number of 3. The characteristic impulsive local momentum loss is followed by decelerated Alfvenic flows and modulated by the TBL waves; momentum balance is conserved only on time scales of the Alfvenic flows (1/f_A ∼12 min). Wave trains at f_A∼1.3 mHz are capable of synchronizing interactions throughout the outer and inner boundary layers. The sonic/Alfvenic flows, bounded by current sheets, control the TBL spectral shape and result in non-Gaussian statistical characteristics of the disturbances, indicating the fluctuation intermittency. We suggest that the multi-scale TBL processes play at least a comparable role to that of macro-reconnection (remote from or in the cusp) in solar wind energy transformation and population of the magnetosphere by the magnetosheath plasma. Secondary micro-reconnection constitutes a necessary chain at the small-scale (∼ion gyroradius) edge of the TBL cascades. The thick TBL transforms the flow energy, including deceleration and heating of the flow in the open throat, ‘plasma ball’ and the region downstream of the cusp.