Clay mineralogy of archaeological soil: an approach to paleoclimatic and environmental reconstruction of the archaeological sites of the Paharpur area,Badalgacchi upazila,Naogaon district,Bangladesh

A geo-archaeological examination was carried out in and around the Paharpur area, Badalgacchi upazila of Naogaon District in the north-western part of Bangladesh. Clay mineralogy and global paleo-temperature curves were used to determine the paleoclimatic and depositional environmental conditions of the Holocene archaeological soils (Barind clay residuum) of the Paharpur archaeological spot. Clay mineralogical data show that the dominant clay mineral is illite with subordinate amounts of kaolinite and chlorite. The high illite and low kaolinite content implies a marine or estuarine deposit. The clay mineral ratio log diagram, constructed by plotting the 7–10°Å integrated intensity ratios versus depth, supports this assumption. The presence of illite, together with quartz and feldspar, suggests high detrital input under generally cool to temperate and dry climates. Chlorite is another common by-product of weathering reactions with low hydrolysis, which is typical for cool to temperate and dry climates. The results suggest the existence of a marine–estuarine influence under a generally cool to temperate and dry climates around Paharpur and the surrounding region throughout the Pala dynasty around mid-century 700 a.d. to early 1100 a.d. Furthermore, this observation is consistent with the global paleo-temperature curves.     

Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Coastal Cities of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle.     

Climates of urbanization: local experiences of water security,conflict and cooperation in peri-urban South-Asia

ABSTRACT

This article explores changing water (in)securities in a context of urbanization and climate change in the peri-urban spaces of four South-Asian cities: Khulna (Bangladesh), Gurugram and Hyderabad (India), and Kathmandu (Nepal). As awareness of water challenges like intensifying use, deteriorating quality and climate change is growing, water security gets more scientific and policy attention. However, in peri-urban areas, the dynamic zones between the urban and the rural, it remains under-researched, despite the specific characteristics of these spaces: intensifying flows of goods, resources, people, and technologies; diversifying uses of, and growing pressures on land and water; and complex and often contradictory governance and jurisdictional institutions. This article analyses local experiences of water (in-)security, conflict and cooperation in relation to existing policies. It uses insights from the analysis of the case studies as a point of departure for a critical reflection on whether a ‘community resilience’ discourse contributes to better understanding these cases of water insecurity and conflict, and to better policy solutions. The authors argue that a community resilience focus risks neglecting important insights about how peri-urban water insecurity problems are experienced by peri-urban populations and produced or reproduced in specific socio-economic, political and policy contexts. Unless supported by in-depth hydro-social research, such a focus may depoliticize basically political questions of water (re) allocation, prioritization, and access for marginalized groups. Therefore, the authors plead for more critical awareness among researchers and policy-makers of the consequences of using a ‘community resilience’ discourse for making sense of peri-urban water (in-)security.

Key policy insights

• There is an urgent need for more (critical) policy and scientific attention to peri-urban water insecurity, conflict, and climate change.

• Although a changing climate will likely play a role, more attention is needed to how water insecurities and vulnerabilities in South Asia are socially produced.

• Researchers and policy-makers should avoid using depoliticized (community) resilience approaches for basically socio-political problems.

     

Why would sea-level rise for global warming and polar ice-melt?

Two major causes of global sea level rise such as thermal expansion of the oceans and the loss of landbased ice for increased melting have been claimed by some researchers and recognized by the IPCC.However, other climate threat investigators revealed that atmosphere-ocean modeling is an imperfect representation, paleo-data consist of proxy climate information with ambiguities, and modern observations are limited in scope and accuracy. It is revealed that global warming and polar ice-melt although a reality would not contribute to any sea level rise. Floating-ice of the polar region on melting would reoccupy same displaced volume by floating ice-sheets. Land-ice cover in the polar region on melting can reduce load from the crust to activate elastic rebound that would raise land for its isostatic equilibrium.Such characteristics would not contribute to sea level rise. Equatorial bulge, polar flattening, elevation difference of the spheroidal surface between equator and pole with lower in the pole, strong gravity attraction of the polar region and week gravity attraction of the equatorial region, all these phenomena would play dominant role in preventing sea level rise. Palaeo-sea level rise and fall in macro-scale(10-100 m or so) were related to marine transgression and regression in addition to other geologic events like converging and diverging plate tectonics, orogenic uplift of the collision margin, basin subsidence of the extensional crust, volcanic activities in the oceanic region, prograding delta buildup, ocean floor height change and sub-marine mass avalanche. This study also reveals that geophysical shape, gravity attraction and the centrifugal force of spinning and rotation of the earth would continue acting against sea level rise.     

Sensitivity analysis of carbon fiber-reinforced elastomeric isolators based on experimental tests and finite element simulations

Conventional steel-based rubber bearings are being replaced by fiber reinforced elastomeric isolators (FREI) due to their high weight and manufacturing cost. Compared to existing rubber bearings, FREIs have superior performance and as a result can control the seismic response of structures more efficiently. This study aims to simulate the performance of rectangular carbon FREIs (C-FREIs) produced through a simple and cost-effective manufacturing process. Additionally, the effect of different factors including the number and the thickness of rubber layers, as well as the thickness of carbon fiber reinforced sheets are investigated on the performance of C-FREIs through sensitivity analyses based on the results obtained from finite element simulations. The results show that by increasing the number and thickness of rubber layers, the efficiency of C-FREIs degrades in terms of vertical strength and damping capacity, however, the performance improves in terms of lateral flexibility. Another important observation is that the increasing thickness of fiber-reinforced layers can increase the vertical rigidity of the base isolator. The vertical stiffness has the most sensitivity to the thickness of elastomeric layers and the thickness of CFR sheets while, when the number of rubber layers increases, the effective lateral stiffness is mostly affected.     

A stochastic differential equation model for assessing drought and flood risks

Droughts and floods are two opposite but related hydrological events. They both lie at the extremes of rainfall intensity when the period of that intensity is measured over long intervals. This paper presents a new concept based on stochastic calculus to assess the risk of both droughts and floods. An extended definition of rainfall intensity is applied to point rainfall to simultaneously deal with high intensity storms and dry spells. The mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, which is a stochastic differential equation model, simulates the behavior of point rainfall evolving not over time, but instead with cumulative rainfall depth. Coefficients of the polynomial functions that approximate the model parameters are identified from observed raingauge data using the least squares method. The probability that neither drought nor flood occurs until the cumulative rainfall depth reaches a given value requires solving a Dirichlet problem for the backward Kolmogorov equation associated with the stochastic differential equation. A numerical model is developed to compute that probability, using the finite element method with an effective upwind discretization scheme. Applicability of the model is demonstrated at three raingauge sites located in Ghana, where rainfed subsistence farming is the dominant practice in a variety of tropical climates.     

The role of viscoelastic damping on retrofitting seismic performance of asymmetric reinforced concrete structures

The primary purpose of this research is to improve the seismic response of a complex asymmetric tall structure using viscoelastic(VE) dampers. Asymmetric structures have detrimental effects on the seismic performance because such structures create abrupt changes in the stiffness or strength that may lead to undesirable stress concentrations at weak locations. Structural control devices are one of the effective ways to reduce seismic impacts, particularly in asymmetric structures. For passive vibration control of structures, VE dampers are considered among the most preferred devices for energy dissipation. Therefore, in this research, VE dampers are implemented at strategic locations in a realistic case study structure to increase the level of distributed damping without occupying significant architectural space and reducing earthquake vibrations in terms of story displacements(drifts) and other design forces. It has been concluded that the seismic response of the considered structure retrofitted with supplemental VE dampers corresponded well in controlling the displacement demands. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that seismic response in terms of interstory drifts was effectively mitigated with supplemental damping when added up to a certain level. Exceeding the supplemental damping from this level did not contribute to additional mitigation of the seismic response of the considered structure. In addition, it was found that the supplemental damping increased the total acceleration of the considered structure at all floor levels, which indicates that for irregular tall structures of this type, VE dampers were only a good retrofitting measure for earthquake induced interstory deformations and their use may not be suitable for acceleration sensitive structures. Overall, the research findings demonstrate how seismic hazards to these types of structures can be reduced by introducing additional damping into the structure.     

Seasonal Shift in Community Structure of Periphytic Ciliates in Estuarine Waters in the Northern Bay of Bengal,Bangladesh

To investigate the seasonal heterogeneity of the periphytic ciliate communities, a 1-year baseline survey was conducted in the Karnaphuli River estuary, northern Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh. A total of 54 ciliate species were recorded, including seven common and 14 dominant species. Maximum species number was in autumn whereas maximum abundance was in winter; the minimum for both occurred in summer. Multivariate analyses, i.e., canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) and principal co-ordinates analysis (PCoA), revealed a clear seasonal heterogeneity of community structure and environmental variables. Multivariate correlation analysis (RELATE) demonstrated that the community structure of the periphytic ciliate communities was significantly correlated with environmental variables, and best matching analysis (BIOENV) indicated that heterogeneity of community patterns was mainly driven by water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids and nutrients. Species richness and diversity peaked in autumn whereas species evenness peaked in summer. These results suggest that environmental conditions shape periphytic ciliate community structure, which is a potentially useful bio-indicator of estuarine water quality.     

Modeling study of growth and potential geohazard for LUSI mud volcano: East Java,Indonesia

The mud volcano known as LUSI first erupted in May 2006 in East Java, Indonesia. The eruption has continued for over two years, and potentially will continue for many years to come, impacting an ever larger area. An obvious and significant question is how extensive the impacted area will become in the coming years. The answer is important for planning scenarios for the relocation of people and infrastructure and for managing the environment and economy. To make such a prediction, an understanding of the geological processes controlling the mud volcanic evolution is needed.     

Landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment using multiple statistical approaches along the Karakoram highway,northern Pakistan

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a framework of regional connectivity,which will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will have positive impact on Iran,Afghanistan,India,Central Asian Republic,and the region.The surrounding area in CPEC is prone to frequent disruption by geological hazards mainly landslides in northern Pakistan.Comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment are rarely available to utilize for landslide mitigation strategies.This study aims to utilize the high-resolution satellite images to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and subsequently develop landslide susceptibility maps using multiple techniques.The very high-resolution(VHR)satellite images are utilized to develop a landslide inventory using the visual image classification techniques,historic records and field observations.A total of 1632 landslides are mapped in the area.Four statistical models i.e.,frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression were used for landslide susceptibility modeling by comparing the landslide inventory with the topographic parameters,geological features,drainage and road network.The developed landslides susceptibility maps were verified using the area under curve(AUC)method.The prediction power of the model was assessed by the prediction rate curve.The success rate curves show 93%,92.8%,92.7%and 87.4%accuracy of susceptibility maps for frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression,respectively.The developed landslide inventory and susceptibility maps can be used for land use planning and landslide mitigation strategies.