Oscillations of the intertropical convergence zone and the genesis of easterly waves. Part I: diagnostics and theory

We examine the mean and transient state of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) by analyzing data and using simple theory. We concentrate on the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean noting that there exists in this region a well-developed mean ITCZ. Furthermore, it is a region where there has been considerable discussion in the literature of whether easterly waves develop in situ or propagate westwards from the Atlantic Ocean. The region is typical of tropical regions where there is a strong cross-equatorial pressure gradient (CEPG): mean convection well removed from the equator but located equatorward of the maximum sea-surface temperature (SST) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). Further to the west, near the dateline where the CEPG is much smaller, convection is weaker and collocated with SST and MSLP extrema. It is argued that in regions of significant CEPG that the near-equatorial tropical system is inertially unstable and that the rectification of the instability for a given CEPG determines the location and intensity of the climatological ITCZ. Using simple theoretical arguments, we develop an expression for the mean latitude of the ITCZ as a function of the CEPG. We note on a day-by-day basis that the ITCZ is highly transient state with variability occurring on 3–8 day time scales. Transients with amplitudes about half of the mean ITCZ, propagate northwards from the near-equatorial southern hemisphere as anomalous meridional oscillations, eventually amplifying convection in the vicinity of the mean ITCZ. It is argued that in these longitudes of strong CEPG the mean ITCZ is continually inertially unstable with advections of anticylonic vorticity across the equator resulting in the creation of an oscillating divergence–convergence doublet. The low-level convergence produces convection and the resultant vortex tube stretching generates cyclonic vorticity which counteracts the northward advection of anticylonic vorticity. During a cycle, the mid-troposphere heating near 10oN oscillates between 6 and 12 K/day at the inertial frequency of the latitude of the mean convection. As a result, there exists an anomalous and shallower, oscillating meridional circulation with a magnitude about 50% of the mean ITCZ associated with the stable state following the generation of anticylonic vorticity. Further, it is argued that the instabilities of the ITCZ are directly associated with in situ development of easterly waves which occur with the inertial period of the latitude of the mean ITCZ. The dynamical sequences and the genesis of easterly waves are absent in the regions further to the east where the CEPG is much weaker or absent altogether. In a companion study (Part II), numerical experiments are conducted to test the hypothesis raised in the present study.     

Stable isotope and petrologic evidence for open-system degassing during the climactic and pre-climactic eruptions of Mt. Mazama, Crater Lake, Oregon

Evaluation of the extent of volatile element recycling in convergent margin volcanism requires delineating likely source(s) of magmatic volatiles through stable isotopic characterization of sulfur, hydrogen and oxygen in erupted tephra with appropriate assessment of modification by degassing. The climactic eruption of Mt. Mazama ejected approximately 50 km³ of rhyodacitic magma into the atmosphere and resulted in formation of a 10-km diameter caldera now occupied by Crater Lake, Oregon (lat. 43°N, long. 122°W). Isotopic compositions of whole-rocks, matrix glasses and minerals from Mt. Mazama climactic, pre-climactic and postcaldera tephra were determined to identify the likely source(s) of H₂O and S. Integration of stable isotopic data with petrologic data from melt inclusions has allowed for estimation of pre-eruptive dissolved volatile concentrations and placed constraints on the extent, conditions and style of degassing.Sulfur isotope analyses of climactic rhyodacitic whole rocks yield δ³⁴S values of 2.8-14.8‰ with corresponding matrix glass values of 2.4-13.2‰. δ³⁴S tends to increase with stratigraphic height through climactic eruptive units, consistent with open-system degassing. Dissolved sulfur concentrations in melt inclusions (MIs) from pre-climactic and climactic rhyodacitic pumices varies from 80 to 330 ppm, with highest concentrations in inclusions with 4.8-5.2 wt% H₂O (by FTIR). Up to 50% of the initial S may have been lost through pre-eruptive degassing at depths of 4-5 km. Ion microprobe analyses of pyrrhotite in climactic rhyodacitic tephra and andesitic scoria indicate a range in δ³⁴S from −0.4‰ to 5.8‰ and from −0.1‰ to 3.5‰, respectively. Initial δ³⁴S values of rhyodacitic and andesitic magmas were likely near the mantle value of 0‰. Hydrogen isotope (δD) and total H₂O analyses of rhyodacitic obsidian (and vitrophyre) from the climactic fall deposit yielded values οf −103 to −53‰ and 0.23-1.74 wt%, respectively. Values of δD and wt% H₂O of obsidian decrease towards the top of the fall deposit. Samples with depleted δD, and mantle δ¹⁸O values, have elevated δ³⁴S values consistent with open-system degassing. These results imply that more mantle-derived sulfur is degassed to the Earth’s atmosphere/hydrosphere through convergent margin volcanism than previously attributed. Magmatic degassing can modify initial isotopic compositions of sulfur by >14‰ (to δ³⁴S values of 14‰ or more here) and hydrogen isotopic compositions by 90‰ (to δD values of −127‰ in this case).     

Turkey Lakes Watershed,Ontario, Canada: 40 years of interdisciplinary whole-ecosystem research

The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) study is a federal, interdepartmental study established in 1979 to investigate the effects of acid rain on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The 10.5 km² watershed, located in the Eastern Temperate Mixed Forest on the Canadian Shield, has been the site of multidisciplinary studies on biogeochemical and ecological processes conducted across plot to catchment scales. The whole-ecosystem investigative approach was adopted from the outset and has allowed research to evolve from its original (and continuing) acidification focus to include investigations on the effects of climate change, forest harvesting and other forest ecosystem perturbations. The extensive scientific and support infrastructure allows for collection of a comprehensive data record essential for understanding long-term environmental trends. Data include atmospheric deposition, meteorology, stream hydrology and chemistry, soil, pore and ground water properties, understory and overstory vegetation, lake and outflow physical and chemical properties, and aquatic macroinvertebrate and fish community composition and abundance. These data have contributed to over 400 published research papers and graduate theses. The watershed has also figured prominently in many continent-wide comparisons advancing fundamental watershed theory. The knowledge gained at TLW has influenced pollutant emission and natural resource management policies provincially, nationally and internationally.     

New evidence for drowned shelf edge reefs in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We present four new high-resolution multibeam bathymetry datasets from the shelf edge of the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Analysis of these data, combined with Chirp sub-bottom profiles and existing submersible observation data provides a fresh insight into the detailed morphology and spatial distribution of submerged reefs and terraces at the shelf edge. An extensive and persistent line of drowned shelf edge reefs exist on the GBR margin in about 40 to 70 m. They appear as barrier reefs up to 200 m wide and comprising twin parallel ridges of rounded pinnacles. Subtle yet consistent terrace and step features lie between 78 and 114 m seaward of the shelf edge reefs in the southern study area. Submersible observations confirm that the drowned reefs now provide a favorable hard substrate for live soft corals and algae. They form a consistent and extensive seabed habitat that extends for possibly 900 km along the GBR shelf edge. The submerged reef and terraces features may reflect a complex history of growth and erosion during lower sea-levels, and are now capped by last deglaciation reef material.     

Spatial demography of Calanus finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea

Continuous Plankton Recorder data suggest that the Irminger Sea supports a major proportion of the surface-living population of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the northern North Atlantic, but there have been few studies of its population dynamics in the region. In this paper, we document the seasonal changes in the demographic structure of C. finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea from a field programme during 2001/2002, and the associations between its developmental stages and various apparent bio-physical zones. Overwintering stages were found widely at depth (>500 m) across the Irminger Sea, and surviving females were widely distributed in the surface waters the following spring. However, recruitment of the subsequent generation was concentrated around the fringes of the Irminger Sea basin, along the edges of the Irminger and East Greenland Currents, and not in the central basin. In late summer animals were found descending back to overwintering depths in the Central Irminger Sea. The key factors dictating this pattern of recruitment appear to be (a) the general circulation regime, (b) predation on eggs in the spring, possibly by the surviving G0 stock, and (c) mortality of first feeding naupliar stages in the central basin where food concentrations appear to be low throughout the year.We compared the demographic patterns in 2001/2002 with observations from the only previous major survey in 1963 and with data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) surveys. In both previous data sets, the basic structure of G0 ascent from the central basin and G1 recruitment around the fringes was a robust feature, suggesting that it is a recurrent phenomenon. The Irminger Sea is a complex mixing zone between polar and Atlantic water masses, and it has also been identified as a site of sporadic deep convection. The physical oceanographic characteristics of the region are therefore potentially sensitive to climate fluctuations. Despite this, the abundance of C. finmarchicus in the region, as measured by the CPR surveys, appears not to have responded to climate factors linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, in contrast with the stocks in eastern Atlantic areas. We speculate that this may because biological factors (production and mortality), rather than transport processes are the key factors affecting the population dynamics in the Irminger Sea.     

The timing of runoff response in design flood analysis

This study presents an investigation of the time to peak of unit response functions for design flood studies. It is based on an empirical analysis of observed rainfall–runoff data for 49 basins in the UK and explores the relationship between unit response time to peak (t_p) and flood peak magnitude (Q_p). The results show that t_p varies significantly between events but suggest a systematic relationship between t_p and Q_p. The relationships which have been developed suggest that t_p decreases with flood magnitude and approaches to an asymptotic value for very large values of Q_p. These findings confirm numerous physical and field investigations and also support the reduction in response time for probable maximum flood (PMF) recommended in the Soil Conservation Services method, the Flood Studies Report method and the Flood Estimation Handbook. The findings also suggest that t_p should be modified in unit hydrograph methods of design flood analysis for return periods that differ from those used in deriving unit hydrographs. A simple correction curve has been developed for adjusting t_p according to the design flood return period. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the location and orientation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

Three semi-permanent cloud bands exist in the Southern Hemisphere extending southeastward from the equator, through the tropics, and into the subtropics. The most prominent of these features occurs in the South Pacific and is referred to as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Similar bands, with less intensity, exist in the South Indian and Atlantic oceans. We attempt to explain the physical mechanisms that promote the diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and the processes that determine the timescales of its variability. It is argued that the slowly varying sea surface temperature patterns produce upper tropospheric wind fields that vary substantially in longitude. Regions where 200?hPa zonal winds decrease with longitude (i.e., negative zonal stretching deformation, or $ {{\partial \overline{U} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial \overline{U} } {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}} < 0 $ ) reduce the group speed of the eastward propagating synoptic (3?C6?day period) Rossby waves and locally increase the wave energy density. Such a region of wave accumulation occurs in the vicinity of the SPCZ, thus providing a physical basis for the diagonal orientation and earlier observations that the zone acts as a ??graveyard?? of propagating synoptic disturbances. In essence, $ {{\partial \overline{U} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial \overline{U} } {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}} = 0 $ demarks the boundary of the graveyard while regions where $ {{\partial \overline{U} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\partial \overline{U} } {\partial x}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\partial x}} < 0 $ denote the graveyard itself. Composites of the life cycles of synoptic waves confirm this hypothesis. From the graveyard hypothesis comes a more general theory accounting for the SPCZ??s spatial orientation and its longer term variability influenced by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or alternatively, the changing background SST associated with different phases of ENSO.     

Probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments of intensifying and decaying African Easterly Waves

About 50?C60% of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) including nearly 85% of intense hurricanes have their origins as African Easterly Waves (AEWs). However, predicting the likelihood of AEW intensification remains a difficult task. We have developed a Bayesian diagnostic methodology to understand genesis of North Atlantic TCs spawned by AEWs through the examination of the characteristics of the AEW itself together with the large-scale environment, resulting in a probabilistic discrimination between large-scale environments associated with intensifying and decaying AEWs. The methodology is based on a new objective and automatic AEW tracking scheme used for the period 1980 to 2001 based on spatio-temporally Fourier-filtered relative vorticity and meridional winds at different levels and outgoing long wave radiation. Using the AEW and Hurricane Best Track Files (HURDAT) data sets, probability density functions of environmental variables that discriminate between AEWs that decay, become TCs or become major hurricanes are determined. Results indicate that the initial amplitude of the AEWs is a major determinant for TC genesis, and that TC genesis risk increases when the wave enters an environment characterized by pre-existing large-scale convergence and moist convection. For the prediction of genesis, the most useful variables are column integrated heating, vertical velocity and specific humidity, and a combined form of divergence and vertical velocity and SST. It is also found that the state of the large-scale environment modulates the annual cycle and interannual variability of the AEW intensification efficiency.     

Potential collapse of the upper slope and tsunami generation on the Great Barrier Reef margin, north-eastern Australia

Analysis of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and seismic profiles in the Noggin Passage region, north-eastern Australia, has identified a small area (Noggin block) in the upper-slope offshore Cairns that may potentially collapse and generate a tsunami wave. The Noggin block extends from 340 to 470 m depth covering a roughly circular (2.4 km long and 3.7 km wide) area of about 5.3 km². The well-defined margins of the block correspond to different bounding seabed features. These features include steep headscarps, small landslides and a group of aligned circular pockforms up to 500 m wide and 20 m deep. Slope stability simulations indicate that the Noggin block is stable under normal present-day gravitational conditions on the upper slope. However, block failure may result under external loads, such as those produced by earthquakes. Failure modelling shows that critical peak horizontal accelerations of 0.2–0.4 g could lead to the collapse of the Noggin block. In north-eastern Australia, these acceleration values would involve earthquakes generated at short hypocentral distances and short periods. The collapse of the potential sediment slide mass of about 0.86 km³ (162 m average thickness) may lead to the formation of a landslide-generated tsunami wave. Semi-empirical equations indicate the collapse of this mass would yield a 7–11-m high three-dimensional tsunami wave. These waves could reach an estimated run-up height at the coast of 5–7 m. Our first-order approach highlights the potential consequences for nearby coastal communities, the need for better sediment characterisation in the study area, and the systematic identification of other areas prone to slope failures along the Great Barrier Reef margin.