Flood risk perception and its determinants among rural households in two communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Risk perception plays a vital part in flood risk management and mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims at first to measure the risk perception of the vulnerable...     

REE geochemistry of core sediments of Cauvery delta,India for provenance studies

Acta Geochimica - The rare earth element (REE) geochemical composition of sediments from two cores were used to investigate the provenances of the Late Pleistocene to Holocene sediments of Cauvery...     

Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.     

A Genetic Programming–Based Model for Colloid Retention in Fractures

Understanding the behavior of colloids in groundwater is critical as some are pathogenic while others may facilitate or inhibit the transport of dissolved contaminants. Colloid behavior in saturated fractured aquifers is governed by the physical and chemical properties of the groundwater-particle-fracture system. The interaction between these properties is nonlinear, and there is a need for a mathematical model describing the relationship between them to advance the mechanistic understanding of colloid transport in fractures and facilitate modeling in fractured environments. This paper coupled genetic programming and linear regression within a multigene genetic programming framework to develop a robust mathematical model describing the relationship between colloid retention in fractures and the physical and chemical parameters that describe the system. The data employed for model development and validation were collected from a series of 75 laboratory-scale colloid tracer experiments conducted under a range of conditions in three laboratory-induced discrete dolomite fractures and their epoxy replicas. The model sufficiently reproduced the observed data with coefficients of determination (R²) of 0.92 and 0.80 for model development and validation, respectively. A cross-validation demonstrated the model generality to 86% of the observed data. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis confirmed that attachment is the primary retention mechanism in the systems employed in this work. The model developed in this study provides a tool describing colloid retention in factures, which furthers the understanding of groundwater-particle-fracture system conditions contributing to the retention of colloids and can aid in the design of groundwater remediation strategies and development of groundwater management plans.     

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Dust‐Bound Trace Metal Elements around Kuhdasht Watershed Area in Iran

Dust, as a source of trace metal elements, affects the health of society. The spatial and temporal concentrations of dust‐bound trace metals (Cd, Pb, Ni, Zn, Cu, and Mn) in Kuhdasht watershed (456 km²), Lorestan Province, Iran, is investigated. Dust is collected using glass traps placed in ten research stations in the region. The spatial and temporal distribution of dust trace metals are plotted using ARC‐GIS. The highest and the lowest concentrations of Zn (9751150 mg kg^?1), Pb (46.352.9 mg kg^?1), and Cd (2.443.30 mg kg^?1) are obtained in winter, of Ni (98110 mg kg^?1) and Cu in autumn (16.053.5 mg kg^?1), and of Mn in summer (385505 mg kg^?1). The spatial concentrations of dust‐bound trace metals indicate all, except Cu, show a decreasing trend from the mountains toward the plains, similar to that of soil and of dust, except for Zn, which shows higher concentrations in dust than in soil. The potential sources of dust‐bound trace metals and their rate of contamination are also investigated using the enrichment and contamination factors. The major sources of Cd and Zn in the dust of watershed are due to anthropogenic activities or from activities outside the borders.     

Experimental Study on Cross-Flow Induced Vibrations in Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle

Vibration in heat exchangers is one of the main problems that the industry has faced over last few decades. Vibration phenomenon in heat exchangers is of major concern for designers and process engineers since it can lead to the tube damage, tube leakage, baffle damage, tube collision damage, fatigue, creep etc. In the present study, vibration response is analyzed on single tube located in the centre of the tube bundle having parallel triangular arrangement (60°) with P/D ratio of 1.44. The experiment is performed for two different flow conditions. This kind of experiment has not been reported in the literature. Under the first condition, the tube vibration response is analyzed when there is no internal flow in the tube and under the second condition, the response is analyzed when the internal tube flow is maintained at a constant value of 0.1 m/s. The free stream shell side velocity ranges from 0.8 m/s to 1.3 m/s, the reduced gap velocity varies from 1.80 to 2.66 and the Reynolds number varies from 44500 to 66000. It is observed that the internal tube flow results in larger vibration amplitudes for the tube than that without internal tube flow. It is also established that over the current range of shell side flow velocity, the turbulence is the dominant excitation mechanism for producing vibration in the tube since the amplitude varies directly with the increase in the shell side velocity. Damping has no significant effect on the vibration behavior of the tube for the current velocity range.     

Late Ordovician glacial and glacio-fluvial paleovalley architecture and sedimentation in southeast Jordan and northwest Saudi Arabia

Four recently discovered glacio-fluvial paleovalleys in southeast Jordan and northwest Saudi Arabia are described for the first time. The paleovalleys formed as a result of glacial erosion by series of sub-parallel valley glaciers during the Late Ordovician (Hirnantian) southern hemisphere glaciation on the Arabian Plate. The southwest-northeast orientation of the paleovalleys, Proterozoic erratic clasts and paleocurrent vectors indicate the advance of glaciers and subsequent glacio-fluvial siliciclastics emanating from a paleo-ice sheet located to the south on the Arabian Shield. U-shaped, paleovalley cross-sectional morphologies and gently inclined longitudinal profiles indicate initial glacial erosion of the ‘finger-like’ paleovalleys, probably as wet-based valley glaciers, eroded up to 250 m depth into Late Ordovician marine bedrock formations. Paleovalley-fill sequences comprise a tripartite upwards succession: (a) basal sandstone-dominated tillite with well-rounded, grooved and striated granitoid and metamorphic basement clasts derived from the Proterozoic Arabian Shield together with locally derived, rounded and elongate boulders eroded from the local bedrock at the margins of the paleovalleys (Retrogradational Lowstand Sequence); (b) green chloritic siltstone (Zarqa Formation) deposited during a progradational sea-level rise with marine influence (Transgressive Sequence); (c) coarse-grained, trough cross-bedded sandstone (Sarah Formation) attributed to progradational fluvial sedimentation as glacial outwash. Rapid sea-level rise during latest Hirnantian to Early Llandovery time resulted in marine flooding of the glacio-fluvial alluvial plain and deposition of organic-rich mudstones representing transgressive and high-stand sequences.     

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on soil erosion susceptibility of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalayas

Soil erosion, a serious environmental problem, is a global challenge. Once a portion of a fertile soil is lost, it is very difficult to replace it, and this leads to decrease in crop production, damage to drainage networks, and siltation of dams and reservoirs. Human practices like intensive agriculture, overgrazing, and deforestation have intensified the rate of soil erosion all over the world. The Jhelum basin which forms the north-western part of the complex mountain system Himalayas is not only highly vulnerable to natural hazards like earthquakes, landslides, and floods but is also highly susceptible to soil erosion. There is an immediate need to device strategies to reduce adverse impacts of soil erosion and to conserve natural resources like soil, water, and forests by means of proper watershed management programs in the Himalayan region. The present study is carried out for eight upper watersheds of Jhelum basin, an area which are facing serious issues like boulder extraction, deforestation, and unplanned urbanization. The present work demonstrates the use of morphometry, land use, and slope coupled with the multicriteria analytical (MCA) framework to estimate the soil erosion susceptibility of these watersheds using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System techniques. The present study revealed that out of eight upper watersheds, Arapal, Lidder, and Bringi fall in high priority and need immediate attention and measures to reduce soil erosion in the area. Sandran, Rembiara, and Romshii fall in medium priority. Kuthar and Vishav fall in the low-priority category and are least susceptible to soil erosion.     

Multi-criteria decision-making analysis in selecting suitable plotting positions for IDF curves of storm events

Selecting suitable distributions for rainfall data is usually subjective and complex since it requires decision-makers to consider results from various measures of goodness-of-fit indices. In this study, the VIKOR method in multi-criteria decision-making analysis is modified to select the most suitable plotting positions to represent extreme storm intensities in order to build the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves of storm events. This is done by considering the rankings provided by all goodness-of-fit indices used to obtain a compromise solution. Nine plotting positions are considered: Weibull (W), Adamowski (A), Gringorten (G), Hazen (H) and Gumbel (EV I) and two known plotting positions for generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution using Pearson’s skewness and another two using L-skewness. The IDF curves obtained are compared to a reference IDF curves which was found using the GEV distribution. The mean and median for three goodness-of-fit indices, the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, CV_RMSE, the mean percentage of difference, Δ, and the coefficient of determination, R ², are taken as the criteria for selection process. The results show that six plotting positions, A, H, W, G and the two plotting positions with L-skewness, are equally superior compared to the other three plotting positions.     

Temporal change of glaciers area and geomorphometric parameters in Parbati valley,Himachal Pradesh,India

Temporal change in the glacier coverage is analyzed for the period between 1962 and 2003 in Parbati valley, Himachal Pradesh. It is observed that the total glacier cover has been decreased by 17% ranging between 8 and 100% for individual glacier. The pattern of de-glaciation shows a high degree of shrinkage in outer zone of Parbati valley, while least shrinkage is observed in the inner valley. The present study is conducted to establish relationship between glacio-geomorphic parameters and glaciers shrinkage pattern to predict the future glacier cover in warming scenario. A systematic change is observed for glacio-geomorphic parameters associated with temporal change in glacier cover. It is observed that mean and minimum elevation, slope, relief and duration of insolation have changed substantially. Maximum elevation, plan/profile curvatures and aspect have shown less change from 1962 to 2003. A correlation matrix between glacio-geomorphic parameters for glaciers between 1962 and 2003 shows that the recent glaciers are much more controlled by terrain characteristics than that in the recent past.