Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.     

Neoproterozoic and Cambro-Ordovician magmatism in the Variscan Kłodzko Metamorphic Complex (West Sudetes,Poland): new insights from U/Pb zircon dating

The Kodzko Metamorphic Complex (KMC) in the Central Sudetes consists of meta-sedimentary and meta-igneous rocks metamorphosed under greenschist to amphibolite facies conditions. They are comprised in a number of separate tectonic units interpreted as thrust sheets. In contrast to other Lower Palaeozoic volcano-sedimentary successions in the Sudetes, the two uppermost units (the Orla-Googowy unit and the Kodzko Fortress unit) of the KMC contain meta-igneous rocks with supra-subduction zone affinities. The age of the KMC was previously assumed to be Early Palaeozoic–Devonian, based on biostratigraphic findings in the lowermost tectonic unit. Our geochronological study focused on the magmatic rocks from the two uppermost tectonic units, exposed in the SW part of the KMC. Two orthogneiss samples from the Orla-Googowy unit yielded ages of 500.4±3.1 and 500.2±4.9 Ma, interpreted to indicate the crystallization age of the granitic precursors. A plagioclase gneiss from the same tectonic unit, intimately interlayered with metagabbro, provided an upper intercept age of 590.1±7.2 Ma, which is interpreted as the time of igneous crystallization. From the topmost Kodzko Fortress unit, a metatuffite was studied, which contains a mixture of genetically different zircon grains. The youngest ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages, which cluster at ca. 590-600 Ma, are interpreted to indicate the maximum depositional age for this metasediment. The results of this study are in accord with a model that suggests a nappe structure for the KMC, with a Middle Devonian succession at the base and Upper Proterozoic units at structurally higher levels. It is suggested here that the KMC represents a composite tectonic suture that juxtaposes elements of pre-Variscan basement, intruded by the Lower Ordovician granite, against a Middle Palaeozoic passive margin succession. The new ages, combined with the overall geochemical variation in the KMC, indicate the existence of rock assemblages representing a Gondwana active margin. The recognition of Neoproterozoic subduction-related magmatism provides additional arguments for the hypothesis that equivalents of the Teplá-Barrandian domain are exposed in the Central Sudetes.     

Quantification of parametric uncertainty of ANN models with GLUE method for different streamflow dynamics

This study describes the parametric uncertainty of artificial neural networks (ANNs) by employing the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The ANNs are used to forecast daily streamflow for three sub-basins of the Rhine Basin (East Alpine, Main, and Mosel) having different hydrological and climatological characteristics. We have obtained prior parameter distributions from 5000 ANNs in the training period to capture the parametric uncertainty and subsequently 125,000 correlated parameter sets were generated. These parameter sets were used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasted streamflow in the testing period using three uncertainty measures: percentage of coverage, average relative length, and average asymmetry degree. The results indicated that the highest uncertainty was obtained for the Mosel sub-basin and the lowest for the East Alpine sub-basin mainly due to hydro-climatic differences between these basins. The prediction results and uncertainty estimates of the proposed methodology were compared to the direct ensemble and bootstrap methods. The GLUE method successfully captured the observed discharges with the generated prediction intervals, especially the peak flows. It was also illustrated that uncertainty bands are sensitive to the selection of the threshold value for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency measure used in the GLUE method by employing the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test.     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.     

Conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater via the bank infiltration method

The bank infiltration (BI) technique may be a viable option if the local climate, hydrological, and geological conditions are conducive. This study was specifically conducted to explore the possibility of using BI to source the polluted surface water in conjunction with groundwater. Three major factors were considered for evaluation: (1) investigation on the contribution of surface water through BI, (2) input of local groundwater, and (3) water quality characteristics of water supply. Initially, the geophysical method was employed to define the subsurface geology and hydrogeology, and isotope techniques were performed to identify the source of groundwater recharge and interaction between surface water and groundwater. The physicochemical and microbiological parameters of the local surface water bodies and groundwater were analyzed before and during water abstraction. Extracted water revealed a 5 %–98 % decrease in turbidity, as well as HCO₃ ⁺, SO₄ ^?, NO₃ ^?, Al, As, and Ca concentration reduction compared with those of Langat river water. However, water samples from test wells during pumping show high concentrations of Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺. In addition, amounts of Escherichia coli, total coliform, and Giardia were significantly reduced (99.9 %). Pumping test results indicate that the two wells (DW1 and DW2) were able to sustain yields.     

Magnetic and structural study of the Eaux-Chaudes intrusion: understanding the Variscan deformation in the Western Axial Zone (Pyrenees)

The present study provides new magnetic and microstructural data for the Eaux-Chaudes granodioritic massif (Western Axial Zone, Pyrenees) and contributes to the understanding of its geometry, internal structure and emplacement mechanism. Moreover, the geological cross-sections and field data allow to reconstruct the evolution of the whole area from Variscan to Alpine times and to integrate the emplacement of the igneous body in the context of the Variscan orogeny. The Eaux-Chaudes pluton (301?±?9?Ma) is mainly composed by granodiorite, describing a normal compositional zoning and an approximately concentric arrangement that is consistent with the zonation of the low-field magnetic susceptibility. Magnetic foliation is subhorizontal in the inner part of the intrusion and becomes parallel to the petrographical contacts along pluton margins, roughly describing the geometry of the intrusion. Magnetic lineations are dominantly subhorizontal, with E–W to ENE–WSW directional maximum. The general parallelism between Variscan structures of the host rock and the geometry and magmatic fabric of the intrusion reveals a late syn-Variscan emplacement. The tectonic regime registered during magma emplacement is in agreement with an N–S shortening and an E–W stretching direction, consistent with the transpressive regime deduced for other Pyrenean intrusions. Alpine overprint produced a slight tilting in the southern part of the intrusion, but it can be considered that the original Variscan structure is basically unchanged.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Extremely slow slope movements influencing the stability of Spis Castle,UNESCO site

Spis Castle, a monument included in the UNESCO World Heritage Site list (Eastern Slovakia) is built on a travertine mound overlying soft Paleogene rocks. Lateral spreading resulting from the subsidence of strong upper travertine into soft claystone strata has fractured and separated the castle rock into several cliffs. The differential movement of individual cliff faces is the primary influence on the stability of the monument. In order to monitor and quantify the movement, two techniques were adopted: a mechanical-optical TM-71 crack gauge and a demec gauge (demountable mechanical—SOMET type crack gauge). This paper presents the results and interpretation of medium and short-term monitoring at the site.     

Experimental and numerical investigations of stresses in a fully grouted rock bolts

Rock bolts are widely used for rock reinforcement in hard-rock mining and civil engineering since a long time. However the use of fully grouted rock bolts and cable bolts is limited in coal mines. In order to improve performance of the rock bolts as a supplementary roof support system for any type of roof condition in coal measured formations, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the behavior of the bolt–grout and grout–rock interactions as well as the mechanism of load transfer in rock bolts.As the performance of grouted bolts depends on bond strength, extensive laboratory pullout as well as pushout tests were conducted in the present investigations with the variations in the bolt diameters, length and cement–water mixing ratios of grout. The load–displacement curves were developed and were verified with the numerical results obtained from finite element analysis using ALGOR software.Numerical models were validated for pushout tests and a detailed analysis was carried out to know the displacement, stress, strain distribution along the bolt.