Statistical detection and no-detection of rainfall change trends and breaks in semiarid Tunisia—50+ years over the Merguellil agro-hydro-climatic reference basin

Rainfall variability is an important feature of semiarid climates with major effects on hydrology, and beyond on key water-dependent societal aspects. Eventual changes in rainfall variability are a strong driver of change of hydrological processes, resources, and hazards, up to catchment signatures and spatial arrangements. We deal with observed precipitations and subsequent statistical coefficients available from a network of 15 rainfall gauges over and around the Merguellil catchment (1175 km²), with series ranging up to the 1961–2013 period. We look for eventual annual trends and breakpoints with a set of methods: Mann Kendall test, Pettitt test, Hubert segmentation procedure, Buishand U statistic, and Lee Heghinian Bayesian procedure. The results underline oscillation of dry and wet periods; several studied rain gauges (Tella, Oueslatia forêt, Majbar, Kesra forêt, Henchir Bhima, and Haffouz DGRE) denote significant trends in annual precipitation. Some breaks are detected but they are not synchronous. These methods reveal the variability of rainfall regimes in the semiarid region and provide a synoptic view of detection and no-detection of symptoms of change. This work gives opportunities to water stakeholders and climate experts in understanding the relationships between climate variability and water availability.     

Numerical heat and fluid flow modeling of the Hercynian Draa Sfar polymetallic (Zn–Pb–Cu) massive sulfide deposit,Central Jbilets,Morocco

Draa Sfar is a polymetallic (Zn–Pb–Cu) volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit with an actual resource of 13 Mt at 4.0% Zn and 1.3% Pb. It is part of the central Jbilets area known for its several Cu–Zn ore deposits. The ore is hosted in the upper Visean-Namurien sedimentary formation. Owing to the complexity of the geology of the ore deposits, numerical simulation approach was attempted to shed light into the temperature distribution, the circulation of the hydrothermal fluid and the genesis of massive sulfide ore bodies by evaluating the permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity. On the basis of this simulation approach, the ore is predicted to be deposited at a temperature ranging between 230 and 290 °C. This temperature range is dependent on the pre-existing temperature of the discharge area where a metal-rich fluid precipitated the ore. The duration of the Draa Sfar ore body formation is predicted to be 15, 000 to 50, 000 years. Based on geological studies of Draa Sfar deposit together with the aforementioned results of the simulation approach, an ore genetic model for the massive sulfide ore bodies is proposed. In this model, the supply of ore-forming fluids is ensured by the combination of seawater and magmatic waters. Magma that generated rhyodacite dome acted as the heat source that remobilized the circulation of these ore-bearing fluids. The NW-SE trending faults acted as potential pathways for both the downward and upward migration of the ore-forming fluids. Due to their high permeability, the ignimbritic facies, host rocks of Draa Sfar ore bodies, have favored the circulation of the fluids. The mixing between the ore-forming fluids of magmatic origin and the descending seawaters and/or in situ pore waters led to the formation the ore bodies in 35,000 years. The position and size of the ore body, determined by the simulation approach, is consistent with the actual field geological data.     

Conservation planning as an adaptive strategy for climate change and groundwater depletion in Wadi El Natrun,Egypt

In drylands, groundwater is often the sole source of freshwater for industrial, domestic and agricultural uses, while concurrently supporting ecosystems. Many dryland aquifers are becoming depleted due to over-pumping and a lack of natural recharge, resulting in loss of storage and future water supplies, water-level declines that reduce access to freshwater, water quality problems, and, in extreme cases, geologic hazards. Conservation is often proposed as a strategy for managing groundwater to reduce or reverse the depletion, although there is a need to better understand its potential effectiveness and benefits at the local scale. This study assesses the impact of water-conservation planning strategies on groundwater resources in the Wadi El Natrun (WEN) area of northern Egypt. WEN has been subjected to groundwater depletion and quality degradation since the 1990s, attributed to agricultural and industrial groundwater usage. Initiatives have been proposed to increase the sustainability of the groundwater resource in the study area, but they have yet to be evaluated. Simultaneously, there are also proposals to increase the extent of arable land and thus demand for freshwater. In this study, three water management scenarios are developed and assessed to the 2060s for their impact on groundwater resources using a hydrogeologic model. Results demonstrate that demand management implemented through an optimized irrigation and crop rotation strategy has the greatest potential to significantly reduce risk of groundwater depletion compared to the other two scenarios—“business as usual” and “30% water-use reduction”—that were evaluated.     

Coniacian carbonate-conglomerate event on carbonate ramps from the Northern Chotts ranges,South Tunisia: facies geometry and tectono-sedimentary evolution

Conglomerate bodies are wide spread in the Lower Coniacian carbonate of the southern of Tunisia. This paper presents an examination of the stratigraphic architecture of these Coniacian conglomerates. It aims to the understanding of the processes leading to their genesis and the relationship and context with the late Cretaceous sedimentation. These conglomerates are related to the incision of Aptian palaeovalleys in a carbonate platform in an extensional setting. The sedimentary analysis and the geometry of these bodies show that the Cretaceous succession in this area are formed by eight facies within four facies associations, representing a series of distinct depositional environments ranging from alluvial plain to the open marine environment. The sedimentary analysis allowed the recognization of elementary sequence which start with the conglomerate bodies corresponding to the incised valley fills.     

The use of connectivity clusters in stochastic modelling of highly heterogeneous porous media

Stochastic geostatistical techniques are essential tools for groundwater flow and transport modelling in highly heterogeneous media. Typically, these techniques require massive numbers of realizations to accurately simulate the high variability and account for the uncertainty. These massive numbers of realizations imposed several constraints on the stochastic techniques (e.g. increasing the computational effort, limiting the domain size, grid resolution, time step and convergence issues). Understanding the connectivity of the subsurface layers gives an opportunity to overcome these constraints. This research presents a sampling framework to reduce the number of the required Monte Carlo realizations utilizing the connectivity properties of the hydraulic conductivity distributions in a three-dimensional domain. Different geostatistical distributions were tested in this study including exponential distribution with the Turning Bands (TBM) algorithm and spherical distribution using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGSIM). It is found that the total connected fraction of the largest clusters and its tortuosity are highly correlated with the percentage of mass arrival and the first arrival quantiles at different control planes. Applying different sampling techniques together with several indicators suggested that a compact sample representing only 10% of the total number of realizations can be used to produce results that are close to the results of the full set of realizations. Also, the proposed sampling techniques specially utilizing the low conductivity clustering show very promising results in terms of matching the full range of realizations. Finally, the size of selected clusters relative to domain size significantly affects transport characteristics and the connectivity indicators.     

Polyphasic evolution of the Jeffara basin in southern Tunisia,influence of halokinesis on the passive margin structuration in the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic

During the Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting, the Pelagian Sea recorded the consequences of the African and European plate’s rapprochement. The interpretation of surface and subsurface data that is the 2D seismic reflection and petroleum well data show new ideas on the geodynamic evolution and halokinesis of the Jeffara basin during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic period. Seismic lines interpretations of the subsurface mainly reveal normal syn-sedimentary NW-SE faulting and where the Jeffara fault seems to be the major play. This syn-sedimentary faulting induced horst and graben structures materialized by major sedimentary sequences thicknesses as well as depths variations on the seismic profiles from the Jeffara fault zone overall towards the East of Jeffara basin. After the Hercynian event of the Permian - Carboniferous age, a general extension took place, which gave rise to the Tethyan opening. This extension has favored the individualization of the Jeffara basin in the South East of Tunisia, characterized by a structuring in Horst and Graben with a Permian carbonate subsidence. During the Triassic - Middle Jurassic period, the Jeffara basin is marked by a pronounced subsidence of essentially evaporate sedimentation accompanied by the birth of normal syn-sedimentary NW-SE faults following an NE-SW extension. This subsidence continuing during the Upper Jurassic period, the accentuation of which is towards the NE of the study zone at the Jerba and El Bibane sub-basin with a dominance of bioclastic limestone and dolomites sedimentation in the same extensive NE-SW direction, during this period, the Jeffara basin was characterized by a beginning of salt activity indicated by the appearance of salt nuclei at the base of the preexisting NW-SE normal faults. During the Lower Cretaceous, we are witnessing an individualization of salt complexes in the SE of the study area at Rass Ajil sub-basin, where this reactive diapirism has produced high zones and erosions in the crest above the salt bodies. During the mid Cretaceous period, the Zebbag formation, hatched by the Gattar carbonate bar, recorded a subsidence inversion phenomenon between the three sub-basins Jerba, El Bibane and Rass Ajil sub-basin, and showed the change of movement of the African plate relative to the European plate related to the opening of the North Atlantic and the beginning of the drift towards the North of Africa. This phenomenon is concretized towards the Upper Cretaceous, where we witness a strong subsidence towards the southeastern part of the study area at Rass Ajil sub-basin with sandstone, marl and clay sedimentation under a regional extensive regime and the individualization of high zones at Jerba sub-basin. The salt movements present an active aspect by piercing their cover and inducing rim synclines in the surroundings. The Cenozoic period is characterized by a strong subsidence of sandstone, clays and carbonates along the Jeffara basin, the salt activity shows a passive aspect at the beginning of this period which slows down and eventually stopped at the late Miocene period, thus indicating the probable exhaustion of the source of the salt material.     

Correction to: Imagery of the metamorphic bedrock roof of the Sahel active fault in the Sablettes (Algiers) reclaimed area by ambient vibration HVSR

The original version of this paper was published with incomplete affiliation. Given in this article are the complete affiliations.     

The Mazafran river (western Sahel of Algiers): superimposition or antecedence?

At the western Sahel of Algiers, the watercourse of the Mazafran river is perpendicular to the Sahel fold, forming a gorge that has developed in a tectono-eustatic context characteristic of the Sahel region. This gorge has formed in a regime of superimposition which involves the evolution of antecedence in relation to the Sahel uplift. This deduction is the result of multiple analyses that are based on a stratigraphic study which characterizes the succession of continental and marine deposits and the analyses of lineament map of tectonic evolution during the Quaternary which is marked by the Sahel folding. In order to correlate the chronology between the fluvial and marine sedimentary dynamics, a geomorphological study of the Mazafran alluvial terraces associated with the paleoshorelines was realized. The obtained results reveal that the development of the Mazafran river gorge is complex.     

A spatiotemporal algebra in Hadoop for moving objects

Spatiotemporal data represent the real-world objects that move in geographic space over time. The enormous numbers of mobile sensors and location tracking devices continuously produce massive amounts of such data. This leads to the need for scalable spatiotemporal data management systems. Such systems shall be capable of representing spatiotemporal data in persistent storage and in memory. They shall also provide a range of query processing operators that may scale out in a cloud setting. Currently, very few researches have been conducted to meet this requirement. This paper proposes a Hadoop extension with a spatiotemporal algebra. The algebra consists of moving object types added as Hadoop native types, and operators on top of them. The Hadoop file system has been extended to support parameter passing for files that contain spatiotemporal data, and for operators that can be unary or binary. Both the types and operators are accessible for the MapReduce jobs. Such an extension allows users to write Hadoop programs that can perform spatiotemporal analysis. Certain queries may call more than one operator for different jobs and keep these operators running in parallel. This paper describes the design and implementation of this algebra, and evaluates it using a benchmark that is specific to moving object databases.     

Incorporating elevation in rainfall interpolation in Tunisia using geostatistical methods

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of three geostatistical algorithms, which integrate elevation as an auxiliary variable: kriging with external drift (KED); kriging combined with regression, called regression kriging (RK) or kriging after detrending; and co-kriging (CK). These three methods differ by the way by in which the secondary information is introduced into the prediction procedure. They are applied to improve the prediction of the monthly average rainfall observations measured at 106 climatic stations in Tunisia over an area of 164 150 km² using the elevation as the auxiliary variable. The experimental sample semivariograms, residual semivariograms and cross-variograms are constructed and fitted to estimate the rainfall levels and the estimation variance at the nodes of a square grid of 20 km?×?20 km resolution and to develop corresponding contour maps. Contour diagrams for KED and RK were similar and exhibited a pattern corresponding more closely to local topographic features when (a) the network is sparse and (b) the rainfall–elevation correlation is poor, while CK showed a smooth zonal pattern. Smaller prediction variances are obtained for the RK algorithm. The cross-validation showed that the RMSE obtained for CK gave better results than for KED or RK.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Feki, H., Slimani, M., and Cudennec, C., 2012. Incorporating elevation in rainfall interpolation in Tunisia using geostatistical methods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1294–1314.