Uncertainty analysis of HEC-HMS model using the GLUE method for flash flood forecasting of Mekerra watershed,Algeria

In this paper, the lumped quasi-distributed hydrological model HEC HMS is used to simulate the rainfall–runoff process of the Mekerra watershed, located in the northwest of Algeria. The model parameters’ uncertainty and the predictive intervals were evaluated with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. According to the results, good simulations were obtained with different values of variables for many sets of parameters generated randomly by the Monte Carlo procedure, which is known as Equifinality. After the analysis, only the hydraulic conductivity at saturation parameter appears well defined, taking values within a limited range. In addition, results indicated that combinations of likelihood measures associated with multiple and different periods of observations reduce a posterior uncertainty of estimated parameters and predictive intervals in some degree. Overall, the GLUE analysis showed that there is a significant uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling of watershed Mekerra, to a great extent due to multiple sources of errors.     

Land use/land cover change impact on groundwater quantity and quality: a case study of Ajman Emirate,the United Arab Emirates,using remote sensing and GIS

Ajman is a rapidly urbanizing emirate with land development succeeding at a fast pace. This study aims to monitor land use/land cover changes and assesses the impact of these changes on groundwater quality and quantity of the shallow aquifer using multitemporal remote sensing data and geographic information system (GIS). To monitor the land use/land cover changes, the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) algorithms were utilized. The obtained maps were correlated against a set of total dissolved solid (TDS); Mg, Cl, and NO₃ groundwater quality index; and depth to the groundwater table maps constructed from groundwater data. The spatial analysis revealed a sharp depletion in groundwater quality and quantity related to the increase in the land use/land cover classes. The mean total TDS is from 21,971 to 26,450 mg/L and depth to groundwater level from ?12.33 to ?17.2 m over a period of 15 years. Maps of normalized difference and groundwater quality sustainability showed that the eastern side of the study area has a high value of groundwater quality sustainability and normalized difference, while the western side of the study area has a minimal value of groundwater quality sustainability and normalized difference. This study is of great assistance for decision makers and land developers to relate to municipal land allotment in rapidly developing regions such as Ajman.     

Evaluating the structural model from ambient vibration recordings and shallow seismic refraction techniques. A case study of Zagazig City,Egypt

This study uses the seismic refraction and noise measurements to investigate the velocity structure of the subsurface and emphasize the advantage of ambient vibration over the conventional seismic refraction technique. Field measurements were carried out at nine sites in and around Zagazig city. Shallow seismic refraction data were interpreted using the delay time method to obtain the two-dimension ground model at each site. Ambient vibration arrays are used to infer the one-dimensional compressional and shear wave velocity profiles through two main steps. The first step is to derive the dispersion curve from the recorded signals using the frequency-wavenumber method. The second is to invert the dispersion curve to obtain the site velocity profiles. The results of the compressional wave velocities obtained from seismic refraction technique showed that the subsurface consists of a number of layers ranging from two to four layers and give a good agreement with the results of the seismic wave velocities obtained from the ambient vibration arrays. The ambient vibration arrays gave a deeper depth of penetration than the other method, providing more information on the subsurface structure without any disturbance to the environment. This work provides reliable estimates of the seismic velocity structures of both shallow and deep sedimentary layers within the area of interest.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.     

Automatic Feature Extraction Module for Change Detection in Al Ain,UAE: Analysis by Means of Multi-temporal Remote Sensing Data

Monitoring new changes in cities adjacent to dynamic sand dunes requires precise classifier technique. Unlike traditional techniques of supervised classification which use training sites, the integration of image transformation tasseled cap and automatic feature extraction module based on spectral signatures has provided to be sensitive and realistic techniques with time and cost effective. The proposed module was applied to Al Ain district, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The module consists of four steps in terms of segmentation, thresholding and clustering and computing attributes. The obtained greenness and classified maps were then enhanced by applying a 3?×?3 Sobel filter. The new changes were detected by combining the multi-temporal greenness and classification maps. Accuracy assessment and quantitative analysis were performed using confusion matrix and ground truthing. The results showed significant increasing in urban and agricultural areas from the year from 1990 to 2000 compared with the period of time from the year 2000 to 2006. The image difference showed that the vegetation and building classes had increased 7.58 and 20.28 km² respectively. This study showed that image difference and fuzzy logic approach are the most sensitive techniques for detecting new changes in areas adjacent to dynamic sand dunes.     

Influence of Salinity on pH and Aluminum Concentration on the Interaction of Acidic Red Soil with Seawater

Contamination of acidic red soil in the coastal areas of Okinawa Islands is a serious environmental problem. This study was conducted to examine the effects of the salinity on pH and aluminum concentration when the acidic red soil interacts with seawater. Acidic red soil from Gushikawa recreation center was fractionated into bulk soil, coarse sand and silt + clay. Different weights of each fraction were equilibrated with seawater solutions. The pH and concentrations of Al³⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were then analyzed in the extracts. The results showed a decreasing trend of pH with increasing soil to solution ratio while the extracted Al³⁺ revealed an increasing trend. The lowest pH values were 3.85, 4.06, 4.41, 4.66 and their corresponding highest Al³⁺ concentrations were 2.50, 1.01, 0.062 and 0.036 mmolL⁻¹ in the seawater extracts, one-tenth seawater extracts, one-hundredth seawater extracts and one-thousandth seawater solution extracts, respectively. Mostly, the concentrations of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and especially K⁺ decreased with increasing soil weight in the high salinities but showed the opposite trend in the low salinity samples. Potassium concentration decreased by 39%, 53% and 40% in the seawater extracts, one-tenth and one-hundredth seawater extracts but increased by 200% in one-thousandth seawater extracts. The coincidence of the increase in Al³⁺ and H⁺ concentrations, and the decrease of Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ concentrations in the solutions suggests ion exchange/adsorption, while the increased patterns, particularly at low salinity could be attributed to the dissolution of the species from the soils.