The response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone Viyaru over the Bay of Bengal

Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori-A conservation approach

Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy(MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC(Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of 1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.     

Evaluation of scraping treatments to restore initial infiltration capacity of three artificial recharge projects in central Iran

 A limiting factor in developing artificial recharge of groundwater is clogging of the soil surface and consequent reduction of infiltration rates. In order to evaluate the degree of improving infiltration rates by scraping away various amounts of the upper soil materials, a study was conducted at three artificial recharge sites (Kohrouyeh, Bagh-Sorkh, and Kachak) in Isfahan Province, central Iran. Five treatments (T1–T5) were considered. Infiltration was measured: T1, on deposited sediment layer; T2, after removing the sediments; T3, scraping of sediments and 5 cm of soil; T4, scraping of sediments and 10 cm of soil; and T5, removing sediments and 15 cm of soil. Initial soil-moisture content of the sites ranged from 1.0–2.87% for Kohrouyeh, 1.18–3.47% for Bagh-Sorkh, and 1.89–3.93% for Kachak. The main texture of the soils was sandy loam. Clay particles have penetrated to a depth of more than 40 cm in some of the recharge basins. A significant increase in final infiltration rate of T5 as compared to T1 treatment was observed for all recharge sites. The final infiltration rates of T1 and T5 treatments for Kohrouyeh, Bagh-Sorkh, and Kachak sites were 0.35, 7.9; 1.22, 12.3; and 0.93, 6.2 cm/h, respectively. The differences between infiltration rates of T2, T3, and T4 treatments were not statistically significant. It is concluded that on average, the infiltration capacity of the untreated recharge facilities have reached 20.3% of the original values, and that scraping the top sediment layer and 15 cm of topsoil could restore 68.3% of the initial infiltration capacity. Received, July 1998 / Revised, April 1999, May 1999 / Accepted, June 1999     

Stellar dynamics in razor-thin discs with massive nuclear black holes

The bifurcations of orbit-averaged dynamics are studied in a class of razor-thin discs with central black holes. The model used here consists of a perturbed harmonic oscillator Hamiltonian augmented with a GM r potential. Through a sequence of conformal and canonical transformations, we reduce the phase-space flows of the system to a set of non-linear differential equations on a sphere. Based on the critical points of the averaged system, we classify orbit families and reveal the existence of six types of periodic motions: circular , long - and short-axis elliptical , long - and short-axis radial and inclined radial orbits. Long-axis elliptical orbits and their surrounding tubes have significant features: whilst they keep stars away from the centre, they elongate in the same direction as the density profile. These properties are helpful in the construction of self-consistent equilibria.     

Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.     

Denitrification in coastal Louisiana: A spatial assessment and research needs

By transforming fixed nitrogen (N) into nitrogen gas, the biochemical processes that support denitrification provide a function critical to maintaining the integrity of ecosystems subjected to increased loading of N from anthropogenic sources. The Louisiana coastal region receives high nitrate (NO₃^?) concentrations (> 100 µM) from the Mississippi–Ohio–Missouri River Basin and is also an area undergoing high rates of wetland loss. Ongoing and anticipated changes in the Louisiana coastal region promise to alter biogeochemical cycles including the net rate of denitrification by ecosystems. Projecting what these changes could mean for coastal water quality and natural resources requires an understanding of the magnitude and patterns of variation in denitrification rates and their connection to estuarine water quality at large temporal and spatial scales under current conditions. We compile and review denitrification rates reported in 32 studies conducted in a variety of habitats across coastal Louisiana during the period 1981– 2008. The acetylene inhibition and ¹⁵N flux were the preferred techniques (95%); most of the studies used sediment slurries rather than intact sediment cores. There are no estimates of denitrification rates using the N₂/Ar ratio and isotope pairing techniques, which address some of the problems and limitations of the acetylene inhibition and ¹⁵N flux techniques. These studies have shown that sediments from estuaries, lakes, marshes, forested wetlands, and the coastal shelf region are capable of high potential denitrification rates when exposed to high NO₃^? concentrations (> 100 µM). Maximum potential denitrification rates in experimental and natural settings can reach values > 2500 µmol m² h^? 1. The lack of contemporary studies to understand the interactions among critical nitrogen transformations (e.g., organic matter mineralization, immobilization, aquatic plant assimilation, nitrification, nitrogen fixation, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (annamox) limits our understanding of nitrogen cycling in coastal Louisiana, particularly the role of respiratory and chemolithoautotrophic denitrification in areas undergoing wetland restoration.     

A feature weighting and selection method for improving the homogeneity of regions in regionalization of watersheds

The method used for feature selection or feature weighting in regionalization of watersheds may affect the results of regionalization methods considerably. It can play a key role in forming hydrologically homogeneous regions for regional flood frequency analysis. In this study, a method based on exploring the nearest and farthest neighbours of data points is introduced for identifying salient features for regionalization of watersheds. The method includes options to relate watershed features to flood data records in order to increase the homogeneity of the regions. The nearest and farthest neighbours are identified based on the criteria such as the mutual information criterion and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Then, the watershed features more able to explain the relationships between the nearest and farthest neighbours are identified as salient features to form homogeneous features for regional flood frequency analysis. The results show that the optimum option of the proposed method improves the performances of the hard and fuzzy clustering algorithms in more than half of the cases based on the cluster validity indices. Furthermore, the results reveal that the optimum option can increase the number of the homogeneous regions formed by clustering algorithms to a great extent. By using the optimum option with 5 nearest and 5 farthest neighbours, longitude, drainage area, and run‐off coefficient are identified as the salient features to regionalize Sefidrud basin. The results show that the proposed method can be considered as an efficient method to form homogeneous regions for regional flood frequency analysis.     

Physical and Compaction Behaviour of Clay Soil–Fly Ash Mixtures

At present, nearly 100 million tonnes of fly ash is being generated annually in India posing serious health and environmental problems. To control these problems, the most commonly used method is addition of fly ash as a stabilizing agent usually used in combination with soils. In the present study, high-calcium (ASTM Class C—Neyveli fly) and low-calcium (ASTM Class F—Badarpur fly ash) fly ashes in different proportions by weight (10, 20, 40, 60 and 80 %) were added to a highly expansive soil [known as black cotton (BC) soil] from India. Laboratory tests involved determination of physical properties, compaction characteristics and swell potential. The test results show that the consistency limits, compaction characteristics and swelling potential of expansive soil–fly ash mixtures are significantly modified and improved. It is seen that 40 % fly ash content is the optimum quantity to improve the plasticity characteristics of BC soil. The fly ashes exhibit low dry unit weight compared to BC soil. With the addition of fly ash to BC soil the maximum dry unit weight (γ_dmax) of the soil–fly ash mixtures decreases with increase in optimum moisture content (OMC), which can be mainly attributed to the improvement in gradation of the fly ash. It is also observed that 10 % of Neyveli fly ash is the optimum amount required to minimize the swell potential compared to 40 % of Badarpur fly ash. Therefore, the main objective of the study was to study the effect of fly ashes on the physical, compaction, and swelling potential of BC soils, and bulk utilization of industrial waste by-product without adversely affecting the environment.     

Least squares fitting of the stage–discharge relationship using smooth models with curvilinear asymptotes

Abstract

In this paper we consider the problem of modelling the stage–discharge relationship by curve fitting using the least squares method. Our basic idea is to present new models which are more flexible and have the ability to model phenomena with increasing or unchanging carrying capacity. The new models present a generalization of some sigmoid smooth models commonly used in practice. They are characterized by a curvilinear asymptote and may have several inflection points. The use of these models on six real datasets collected from the US Geological Survey’s website proves their performance and their ability to model hydrological phenomena.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Yue     

Slope stability analyzing using recent swarm intelligence techniques

Slope stability analysis of soil with a weak layer sandwiched between two strong layers is considered as a complex geotechnical problem. In this problem, the objective function is non‐convex and discontinuous with the presence of multiple strong local minima. Classical optimization techniques fail to converge to a valid solution unless a proper initial trial is adopted. Even though many new optimization algorithms have emerged, they have not been applied to geotechnical problems yet. In the present study, some recent swarm intelligence algorithms are adopted for some complicated example of slope stability problems and benchmarked with the traditional particle swarm optimization algorithm. From the results, it seems the levy flight krill herd algorithm is the most efficient method over proposed algorithms for this kind of problem. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.