沿淮地区秋季连阴雨综合指数构建及其变化特征

基于安徽省沿淮地区10个国家气象站1960-2019年观测资料、灾情资料和7种地方连阴雨监测指标,在评估7种地方指标适用性的基础上,采用加权综合指数法和线性趋势法,构建了沿淮地区秋季连阴雨综合指数,分析了时空变化特征。结果表明:江苏指标对沿淮地区连阴雨监测的适用性最好,连阴雨综合指数由连阴雨总日数、连阴雨总降水量线性组成,权重分别为0.8和0.2。按照综合指数,将连阴雨强度分成重度、中度、轻度3级,分级结果与灾情实况较吻合,重度连阴雨和中度连阴雨TS评分分别为100%、88.9%。秋季连阴雨在20世纪70年代到80年代前期及近10年发生频率高、强度大,尤其是2016年和2017年的连阴雨,强度居历史前2位。沿淮地区连阴雨年数东部和西部的多于中部的,重度连阴雨阜南的最多,五河的最少。     

The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s

Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide. Southwest China (SWC) is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation, underdevelopment, and fragile ecosystems. Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations, the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970s. Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly, but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly, whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant, about 60% of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. Furthermore, there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation, with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region. The results carry important implications for policymakers, who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.摘要本文分析了中国西南20世纪70年代末以来极端降水事件的频率, 强度及其对总降水的贡献. 结果表明, 该地区约60%的降水站点极端降水的频率和强度正在增加, 而大多数站点总降水频率明显减少. 同时极端降水总量对总降水量的贡献有显著增加的趋势, 极端降水在日益干旱的中国西南地区变得更具主导性. 研究结果提醒应更加重视极端降水及其可能引发的次生灾害, 如洪水, 山体滑坡等.     

北半球72 ka BP气候突变事件及其与Toba火山的关系

72 ka BP左右的强降温事件是末次冰期最大的气候突变事件,且同时期发生了第四纪以来最强的火山喷发——Toba火山喷发,后者在此次强降温事件中扮演着什么角色一直是古气候学界研究的热点。对此进行深入的研究,有助于全面评价火山喷发的环境效应,进一步完善末次冰期突变事件的成因机制。系统回顾深海岩芯、极地冰芯、洞穴石笋、黄土、湖泊等古气候载体的研究成果,这些记录对72 ka BP左右的强降温事件和/或Toba火山喷发进行了不同程度的描述,并从不同的角度分析二者的关系。从72 ka BP左右的强降温事件和Toba火山喷发的时间上,以及火山喷发对气候变化影响的机理上看,Toba火山喷发确实对这次强降温事件产生了实质性影响。这个影响在格陵兰冰芯记录中表现得尤为明显,并得到了气候模拟的进一步支持。然而,部分低纬海洋记录研究表明,Toba火山喷发前后气候没有发生显著变化,至少低纬地区的气候不如高纬地区变化明显。古生物研究同时显示出Toba火山喷发并未对其生存环境产生灾难性的影响,由此可见,72 ka BP左右的强降温事件驱动机制及其对Toba火山喷发的响应程度尚存争议。今后的研究应重视提高气候记录分辨率和探测Toba火山喷发证据的研究,从解剖事件的内部结构特征入手,进而建立气候模式与火山效应之间的联系,以此来明确“72 ka事件”驱动机制及其对Toba火山喷发的响应关系。     

Distributions of n-alkanes and their hydrogen isotopic composition in plants from Lake Qinghai (China) and the surrounding area

Various aquatic plants from Lake Qinghai, the largest inland saline lake in China, and terrestrial plants from the surrounding area were investigated for the distribution of n-alkanes and their δD values. The n-alkanes in the samples range from C₁₅ to C₃₃ with C preference index (CPI) values of 4.0–29.7. The n-C₂₃ or n-C₂₅ alkane is the dominant compound in the aquatic submerged plants. The aquatic emergent and terrestrial plants have an abundance maximum at n-C₂₇, n-C₂₉ or n-C₃₁. The average chain length (ACL) values, ranging from 26.0 to 29.6, are closely related to the plant species. The n-alkanes from the aquatic plants have mean δD values of −169‰ to −121‰ and those from the terrestrial plants values of −173‰ to −109‰. The H isotopic composition (δD) and fractionation differ significantly among the plants studied. Comparison shows that additional evaporative enrichment of the lake water associated with saline lakes and humidity influence the δD values of the n-alkanes in aquatic and terrestrial plants, respectively. The mean δD values of n-alkanes in the plants decrease with increasing ACL value. The n-alkanes from the different types of plants are more depleted in D relative to environmental water and those from aquatic plants (with a mean value of −143‰) have a greater isotopic fractionation than terrestrial plants (mean value −113‰).     

Physically based simulation of dam breach development for Tangjiashan Quake Dam,China

Physically based modeling approach has been widely developed in recent years for simulation of dam failure process resulting from overtopping flow. Due to the lack of field data, there exist few applications to natural quake dams with complex erosion mechanisms. This paper presents a physically based simulation of the failure process of the Tangjiashan Quake Dam formed as a result of the “May 12, 2008” Wenchuan earthquake in China. The one-dimensional model adopted features as cost saving but enables capturing the main characteristics of the failure process, where selective sediment transport and gravitational slope collapse are accounted for. The simulated flow hydrograph and breach progression process are generally in good agreement with the observed data. Unsteadiness and non-uniformity are found to be substantial characteristics of breach progression during the failure process of natural quake dams. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Manning resistance coefficient and the erodibility coefficient in Osman and Thorne’s (J Hydraul Eng 114(2):134–150, 1988) model significantly influences the flow peak discharge but has less influence on its occurrence time, while the velocity lag coefficient associated with bed-load transport may affect the two breaching parameters substantially.     

The assessment of water stress with the Water Poverty Index in the Shiyang River Basin in China

The paper is concerned with the application of the Water Poverty Index (WPI) as a holistic tool to assess the Shiyang River Basin’s water stress at the regional level. The basin is one of the inland river basins in China, with the degree of exploitation and utilization of water resources very high and water scarcity most severe. Appropriate indicators are needed to measure water stress for policy making and decision-making. The WPI links physical estimates of water availability with socio-economic factors associated with water scarcity. The study presents details of the methodology used, and the results show that the water stress in Minqin is the most severe in the basin, with a WPI value of 26.3, and that the water situation is the best in Jingchang with a WPI score of 66.9. In addition, measures in the basin are obtained of resources, access, capacity, use and environment.     

皖南天井山金矿床地质-地球化学特征及找矿前景

皖南地区山高林密,地质工作条件差,基础地质工作相对还很薄弱,金矿的找寻工作一直没有取得大的突破.本文选取皖南休宁县天井山金矿为切入点,对该矿床地质、地球化学特征进行了分析,基本理清了本区与金成矿相关的各种因素,对矿床成因进行了剖析,并对其找矿前景作了探讨.系统统计分析区内地层、岩浆岩、矿石的主微量元素、稀土元素特征,讨...     

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.     

Thermodynamic modeling of binary CH4-H2O fluid inclusions

This work reports the application of thermodynamic models, including equations of state, to binary (salt-free) CH₄-H₂O fluid inclusions. A general method is presented to calculate the compositions of CH₄-H₂O inclusions using the phase volume fractions and dissolution temperatures of CH₄ hydrate. To calculate the homogenization pressures and isolines of the CH₄-H₂O inclusions, an improved activity-fugacity model is developed to predict the vapor-liquid phase equilibrium. The phase equilibrium model can predict methane solubility in the liquid phase and water content in the vapor phase from 273 to 623 K and from 1 to 1000 bar (up to 2000 bar for the liquid phase), within or close to experimental uncertainties. Compared to reliable experimental phase equilibrium data, the average deviation of the water content in the vapor phase and methane solubility in the liquid phase is 4.29% and 3.63%, respectively. In the near-critical region, the predicted composition deviations increase to over 10%. The vapor-liquid phase equilibrium model together with the updated volumetric model of homogenous (single-phase) CH₄-H₂O fluid mixtures (Mao S., Duan Z., Hu J. and Zhang D. (2010) A model for single-phase PVTx properties of CO₂-CH₄-C₂H₆-N₂-H₂O-NaCl fluid mixtures from 273 to 1273 K and from 1 to 5000 bar. Chem. Geol.275, 148-160), is applied to calculate the isolines, homogenization pressures, homogenization volumes, and isochores at specified homogenization temperatures and compositions. Online calculation is on the website: http://www.geochem-model.org/.     

Geological, geochemical characteristics and isotope systematics of the Longqiao iron deposit in the Lu-Zong volcano-sedimentary basin, Middle-Lower Yangtze (Changjiang) River Valley, Eastern China

The Middle-Lower Yangtze (Changjiang) River Valley metallogenic belt is located on the northern margin of the Yangtze Craton of eastern China. Most polymetallic deposits in the Changjiang metallogenic belt are clustered in seven districts where magmatism of Mesozoic age (Yanshanian tectono-thermal event) is particularly extensive. From west to east these districts are: E-dong, Jiu-Rui, Anqing-Guichi, Lu-Zong, Tong-Ling, Ning-Wu and Ning-Zhen. World-class iron ore deposits occur in the Lu-Zong and Ning-Wu ore clusters, which are mainly located in continental fault-bound volcanic-sedimentary basins. One of these deposits is the Longqiao iron deposit, discovered in the northern part of the Lu-Zong Basin in 1985. This deposit consists of a single stratabound and stratiform orebody, hosted in sedimentary carbonate rocks of the Triassic Dongma'anshan Formation. A syenite pluton (Longqiao intrusion) is situated below the deposit. The iron ore is massive and disseminated and the ore minerals are mainly magnetite and minor pyrite. Wall rock alteration mostly consists of skarn minerals, such as diopside, garnet, potassic feldspar, quartz, chlorite, phlogopite and anhydrite. Thin sedimentary siderite beds of Triassic age occur as relict laminated ore at the top and the margin of the magnetite orebody. These sideritic laminae are part of Triassic evaporite-bearing carbonate deposits (Dongma'anshan Formation).Sulfur isotopic compositions show that the sulfur in the deposit was derived from a mixture of magmatic hydrothermal fluids and carbonate–evaporite host rocks. Similarly, the C and O isotopic compositions of limestones from the Dongma'anshan Formation indicate that these rocks interacted with magmatic hydrothermal fluids. The O isotopic compositions of the syenitic rocks and minerals from the deposit show that the hydrothermal magnetite and skarn minerals were formed from magmatic fluids. The Pb isotopic compositions of sulfides are similar to those of the Longqiao syenite. Phlogopite coexisting with magnetite in the magnetite ores yielded a plateau age of 130.5 ± 1.1 Ma (2σ), whereas the LA-ICP MS age of the syenite intrusion is 131.1 ± 1.5 Ma, which is slightly older than the age of phlogopite.The Longqiao syenite intrusion may have crystallized from a parental alkaline magma, generated by partial melting of lithospheric mantle, during extensional tectonics. The ore fluids were probably first derived from magma at depth, later emplaced in the sedimentary rocks of the Dongma'anshan Formation, where it interacted with siderite and evaporite-bearing carbonate strata, resulting in the formation of magnetite and skarn minerals. The Longqiao iron deposit is a skarn-type stratabound and stratiform mineral system, genetically and temporally related to the Longqiao syenite intrusion. The Longqiao syenite is part of the widespread Mesozoic intracontinental magmatism (Yanshanian event) in eastern China, which has been linked to lithospheric delamination and asthenospheric upwelling.