The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection. 相似文献
We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ... 相似文献
Compared Kuqa foreland basin with Persian Gulf Basin in development of salt layers, salt tectonics, and the relation between salt tectonics and hydrocarbon, it is concluded that the salt diapirs are relative to hydrocarbon. Searching salt diapirs and related traps in Kuqa foreland basin is important. The forming mechanism of salt tectonic in Kuqa foreland basin is different from that of Hormuz Series, but similar to that of Lower Fars Series/Gachsaran Formation. Inspired by the role of salt tectonics of Lower Fars Series/Gachsaran Formation in hydrocarbon accumulation, the authors considered that the exploration below salt layer should be enforced, and the traps below salt layer in the southern part of the Kuqa foreland basin would be found where salt layer is thicker. On the contrary, the traps should be found both above and below the salt layer in front of the northern mountain where salt layer is thin. The Triassic and Jurassic source rocks are rich in this area with great exploration prospective. 相似文献