Amplification of the storm surges in shallow waters of the Pertuis Charentais (Bay of Biscay,France)

The Pertuis Charentais are shallow coastal embayments formed by the islands of Oleron and Re in the north-eastern Bay of Biscay. The low-lying coasts of the Pertuis Charentais are susceptible to extensive flooding caused by the storm surges generated in the North Atlantic. Numerical modelling of the 24 October 1999 surge event is performed in the present study in order to elucidate the impact of the wind-wave-tide-surge interactions on the surge propagation in the Pertuis Charentais. A 2D numerical model is constructed to simulate the wave and tide-surge propagation on a high-resolution finite-element grid by using the TELEMAC and TOMAWAC software. The effect of the wave-induced enhancement on the sea surface drag and on the bottom friction is evaluated by using the models of Janssen (1991) and Christoffersen and Jonsson (1985), respectively. The radiation stress is estimated by employing the approach of Longuet-Higgins and Stewart (1964). It is demonstrated that the peak surge in the night on 23–24 October has been amplified inside the Pertuis Charentais by about 20 cm due to the wind-wave interactions with the tide-surge currents. These interactions are strongest at the entrance to the Pertuis Charentais where the sea surface drag coefficient is significantly increased by the wind-wave coupling. The effect of the wave-tide-surge interactions is large enough to be included in the flood forecasting systems of this region.     

From the Geophysical Contrasts of the Caspian Sea to Morphogenetic Differences of Caspian Seals

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - This paper proposes an approach to differentiating the Caspian seal population into separate subpopulations. The Caspian seal, despite the island nature...     

UV observations of sdB stars and prospects of WSO–UV mission for such studies

The hot subdwarf B (sdB) stars are considered to be core He-burning stars with surface temperatures T _eff up to 40?000 K and log?g≥5. They are UV bright and ultraviolet observatories have a significant impact on studies of these objects. Using the technical characteristics of the instruments of the World Space Observatory–Ultraviolet (WSO–UV) mission and data from previous UV studies of sdBs we estimate the limiting apparent magnitudes for these stars that can be observed with the signal-to-noise ratio required in fine spectroscopic analysis. WSO–UV is an international space observatory for observation in UV spectral range 100–350 nm, that is beyond the reach of ground-based instruments but where most of astrophysical processes can be efficiently studied with unprecedented capability. The WSO–UV project is currently funded by national space agencies of Russia and Spain with participation of Germany, Ukraine and China. The WSO–UV consists of a 1.7 m aperture telescope (under responsibility of Russia) with instrumentation designed to carry out high resolution spectroscopy, long-slit low resolution spectroscopy and direct sky imaging. The WSO–UV Ground Segment is under development by Spain and Russia. They will coordinate the Mission and Science Operations and provide the satellite tracking stations for the project. The WSO–UV will work as a targeted scientific observatory. The scientific program of the observatory is open to excellent scientific projects from the world-wide community and occupies up to 40% of total observational time.     

Dhofar 225 and Dhofar 735: Relationship to CM2 chondrites and metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites,Belgica‐7904 and Yamato‐86720

Abstract– Dhofar (Dho) 225 and Dho 735 are carbonaceous chondrites found in a hot desert and having affinities to Belgica‐like Antarctic chondrites (Belgica [B‐] 7904 and Yamato [Y‐] 86720). Texturally they resemble CM2 chondrites, but differ in mineralogy, bulk chemistry and oxygen isotopic compositions. The texture and main mineralogy of Dho 225 and Dho 735 are similar to the CM2 chondrites, but unlike CM2 chondrites they do not contain any (P, Cr)‐sulfides, nor tochilinite 6Fe_0.9S*5(Fe,Mg)(OH)₂. H₂O‐contents of Dho 225 and Dho 735 (1.76 and 1.06 wt%) are lower than those of CM2 chondrites (2–18 wt%), but similar to those in the metamorphosed carbonaceous chondrites of the Belgica‐like group. Bulk compositions of Dho 225 and Dho 735, as well as their matrices, have low Fe and S and low Fe/Si ratios relative to CM2 chondrites. X‐ray powder diffraction patterns of the Dho 225 and Dho 735 matrices showed similarities to laboratory‐heated Murchison CM2 chondrite and the transformation of serpentine to olivine. Dho 225 and 735’s oxygen isotopic compositions are in the high ¹⁸O range on the oxygen diagram, close to the Belgica‐like meteorites. This differs from the oxygen isotopic compositions of typical CM2 chondrites. Experimental results showed that the oxygen isotopic compositions of Dho 225 and Dhofar 725, could not be derived from those of typical CM2 chondrites via dehydration caused by thermal metamorphism. Dho 225 and Dho 735 may represent a group of chondrites whose primary material was different from typical CM2 chondrites and the Belgica‐like meteorites, but they formed in an oxygen reservoir similar to that of the Belgica‐like meteorites.     

Quantitative biome reconstruction using modern and late Quaternary pollen data from the southern part of the Russian Far East

In this study we present a recent compilation of 286 modern surface pollen spectra from the southern part of the Russian Far East (42–54°N, 131–141°E) and use it to test the biome reconstruction method. Seventy terrestrial pollen taxa were assigned to plant functional types and then classified to eight regional biomes. When applied to 286 surface pollen spectra, the method assigns about 70% (201 sites) of the samples to the cool mixed forest biome, 17% – to the taiga, 2% – to the cool conifer forest, 3% – to the temperate deciduous forest, and 7% – to the steppe. The steppe reconstruction is characteristic of the pollen spectra from the agricultural areas around Lake Khanka. A visual comparison shows good agreement between pollen-derived biomes and actual vegetation distribution in the region. However, pollen and botanical data, compared with the potential vegetation distribution simulated from the modern climate dataset using the BIOME1 model, demonstrate that spatial distribution of cool mixed forest is underrepresented in the model simulation. The model sets the mean temperature of the coldest month of −15 °C as the factor limiting distribution of the temperate deciduous broadleaf taxa, while vegetation and pollen data from the region demonstrate that this limit should be lowered to −26 °C. Application of the method to the Gur 3–99 pollen record (50°00^′N, 137°03^′E) demonstrates that tundra vegetation predominated around the site prior to 14 ka BP (1 ka = 1000 cal. years). However, the local presence of boreal trees and mixed forest-tundra vegetation is suggested by relatively high taiga scores. Soon after 14 ka BP the scores of taiga become slightly higher than tundra scores. During 11.4–10.5 ka BP a cool conifer forest is reconstructed. Establishment of the full interglacial conditions is marked by the onset of cool mixed forest by 10.5 ka BP. Between 10.3 and 2.5 ka BP the scores of temperate deciduous forest are close to those of cool mixed forest and become distinctly lower during the late Holocene.     

Late orogenic, large-scale rotations in the Tien Shan and adjacent mobile belts in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan

Most of Kazakhstan belongs to the central part of the Eurasian Paleozoic mobile belts for which previously proposed tectonic scenarios have been rather disparate. Of particular interest is the origin of strongly curved Middle and Late Paleozoic volcanic belts of island-arc and Andean-arc affinities that dominate the structure of Kazakhstan. We undertook a paleomagnetic study of Carboniferous to Upper Permian volcanics and sediments from several localities in the Ili River basin between the Tien Shan and the Junggar–Alatau ranges in southeast Kazakhstan. Our main goal was to investigate the Permian kinematic evolution of these belts, particularly in terms of rotations about vertical axes, in the hope of deciphering the dynamics that played a role during the latest Paleozoic deformation in this area. This deformation, in turn, can then be related to the amalgamation of this area with Baltica, Siberia, and Tarim in the expanding Eurasian supercontinent. Thermal demagnetization revealed that most Permian rocks retained a pretilting and likely primary component, which is of reversed polarity at three localities and normal at the fourth. In contrast, most Carboniferous rocks are dominated by postfolding reversed overprints of probably “mid-Permian” age, whereas presumably primary components are isolated from a few sites at two localities. Mean inclinations of primary components generally agree with coeval reference values extrapolated from Baltica, whereas declinations from primary as well as secondary components are deflected counterclockwise (ccw) by up to  90°. Such ccw rotated directions have previously also been observed in other Tien Shan sampling areas and in the adjacent Tarim Block to the south. However, two other areas in Kazakhstan show clockwise (cw) rotations of Permian magnetization directions. One area is located in the Kendyktas block about 300 km to the west of the Ili River valley, and the other is found in the Chingiz Range, to the north of Lake Balkhash and about 400 km to the north of the Ili River valley. The timing of the ccw as well as cw rotations is clearly later than the disappearance of any marine basins from northern Tarim, the Tien Shan and eastern Kazakhstan, so that the rotations cannot be attributed to island-arc or Andean-margin plate settings — instead we attribute the rotations to large-scale, east–west (present-day coordinates), sinistral wrenching in an intracontinental setting, related to convergence between Siberia and Baltica, as recently proposed by Natal'in and Şengör [Natal'in, B.A., and Şengör, A.M.C., 2005. Late Palaeozoic to Triassic evolution of the Turan and Scythian platforms: the pre-history of the palaeo-Tethyan closure, Tectonophysics, 404, 175–202.]. Our previous work in the Chingiz and North Tien Shan areas on Ordovician and Silurian rocks suggested relative rotations of  180°, whereas the Permian declination differences are of the order of 90° between the two areas. Thus, we assume that about 50% of the total post-Ordovician rotations are of pre-Late Permian age, with the other half of Late Permian–earliest Mesozoic age. The pre-Late Permian rotations are likely related to oroclinal bending during plate boundary evolution in a supra-subduction setting, given the calc-alkaline character of nearly all of the pre-Late Permian volcanics in the strongly curved belts.     

Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.     

Optimal Initial Conditions for Simulation of Seismotectonic Tsunamis

Numerical simulation of seismotectonic tsunamis usually starts with specification of the initial elevation of the water surface in the tsunami source. The initial elevation is traditionally set equal to the vertical residual bottom deformation resulting from earthquakes. We discuss the imperfectness of the traditional approach and suggest an improved practical method of calculating the initial elevation from the solution of the 3D problem in the framework of potential theory. The method takes into account horizontal and vertical components of bottom deformation and bathymetry in the source area. Within the assumption of instant tsunami generation the suggested method represents the optimal way to specify the initial condition in the tsunami propagation problem. The tsunamis in the Central Kuril Islands on 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007 are taken as examples to demonstrate the efficiency of the new method.     

Learning wind fields with multiple kernels

This paper presents multiple kernel learning (MKL) regression as an exploratory spatial data analysis and modelling tool. The MKL approach is introduced as an extension of support vector regression, where MKL uses dedicated kernels to divide a given task into sub-problems and to treat them separately in an effective way. It provides better interpretability to non-linear robust kernel regression at the cost of a more complex numerical optimization. In particular, we investigate the use of MKL as a tool that allows us to avoid using ad-hoc topographic indices as covariables in statistical models in complex terrains. Instead, MKL learns these relationships from the data in a non-parametric fashion. A study on data simulated from real terrain features confirms the ability of MKL to enhance the interpretability of data-driven models and to aid feature selection without degrading predictive performances. Here we examine the stability of the MKL algorithm with respect to the number of training data samples and to the presence of noise. The results of a real case study are also presented, where MKL is able to exploit a large set of terrain features computed at multiple spatial scales, when predicting mean wind speed in an Alpine region.     

The thermo-tectonic history of the Song-Kul plateau, Kyrgyz Tien Shan: Constraints by apatite and titanite thermochronometry and zircon U/Pb dating

The Song-Kul Basin sits on a plateau at the Northern and Middle Kyrgyz Tien Shan junction. It is a lacustrine basin, occupied by Lake Song-Kul and predominantly developed on igneous basement. This basement was targeted for a multi-method chronological study to identify the different magmatic episodes responsible for basement formation and to constrain the timing of the development of its present-day morphology. Zircon U/Pb dating by LA-ICP-MS revealed four different magmatic episodes: a Late Cambrian (~ 500 Ma) island arc system, a Late Ordovician (~ 450 Ma) subduction related intrusion, an Early Permian (~ 290 Ma) collisional stage, and a Middle to Late Permian (~ 260 Ma) post-collisional magmatic pulse. Middle to Late Triassic (~ 200–230 Ma) titanite fission-track ages and Late Triassic – Early Jurassic (~ 180–210 Ma) apatite fission-track ages and thermal history modeling indicate the Song-Kul basement was already emplaced in the shallow crust at that time. An exhumed fossil apatite fission-track partial annealing zone is recognized in the bordering Song-Kul mountain ranges. The area experienced only minor post-Early Mesozoic denudation. The igneous basement was slowly brought to apatite (U–Th)/He retention temperatures in the Late Cretaceous–Palaeogene. Miocene to present reactivation of the Tien Shan does not manifestly affect this part of the orogen.